Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

As we get deeper into training camp, more and more news trickles out and the roster seems to be shaping up.  We can, at this point, make a pretty good guess at what the opening night roster will look like.  It seems Cory Conacher might have won a spot, not only with the team, but perhaps on the second line (which one would assume means fellow scoring forward, Tyler Johnson, who has probably outplayed Conacher so far in this AHL season, is heading back to Syracuse).  But more on the team hopefuls later.

For now, we’ll focus on the second half (numerically) of the forward squad.  This installment includes the team’s two top scorers, the two new faces to the forward lines, and at least one player whose roster spot, it would appear, is in jeopardy.

(listed numerically…)

#26 Martin St. Louis (W)

2011/2012 Season (Tampa Bay Lightning)

(GP)77     (G)25     (A)49     (PTS)74     (+/-)-3     (PIM)16     (TOI/GP)22:38

Now moving into his late thirties, Marty St. Louis continues to be an elite winger in the NHL.  It seems like forever ago that St. Louis was considered something of an NHL flop, putting up miserable numbers in Calgary while absolutely tearing apart the AHL during his stint with their affiliate in Saint John.  Well, after figuring out how to score at an NHL level (St. Louis was considered a late bloomer when he had his break out year at 27), he didn’t look back.  Since coming to Tampa Bay in 2000, St. Louis has scored more than 90 points an incredible four times (he topped 100 points and won a scoring title in 06/07), and over 80 points six times.  Last season’s 74 points was his lowest total since the 02/03 season, but a closer look at the numbers reveals that this is probably not a case of diminished skill:

Pertinent Statistics

2011/2012 Total Points:   74

2011/2012 Power Play Points:   16

2011/2012 Even Strength Points:   58

2010/2011 Total Points:   99

2010/2011 Power Play Points:   41

2010/2011 Even Strength Points:   58

St. Louis, perhaps more than any Lightning player, was hurt by the team’s poor power play, as evidenced by an identical number of even strength points in the last two years (and he played in 5 fewer games last year, might I add).  He was often asked to play the point on the power play last season, a task he seems unsuited to.  St. Louis is much more productive while darting in and out of traffic.  By looking at these numbers, it seems clear that St. Louis is not going through a natural decline due to age.  That will come, no doubt, but there’s no evidence to support that it has come just yet.

Interesting Statistics

Goals Since 05/06:   214 (15th in NHL)

Assists Since 05/06: 379 (4th in NHL)

St. Louis has been an elite player for a long time.  And as shown above, he’s probably not slowing down just yet.  He’s expected to play on a line with Steven Stamkos and Ryan Malone to start the year, so we can only assume that assist total will continue to rise.  If things go well this year, Marty could be in the hunt to score his 1000th career point next season, and will almost certainly get it by 2014/2015, regardless of how his skills hold up.  Currently, he has 852 career points, to go along with a number of awards and accolades, and is steadily building a first ballot Hall of Fame case for himself.

Statistical Anomaly

Total Goals: 25

First Period Goals: 3

Does he get better as the game goes on?

What to expect…

All indications point to Tampa Bay fixing their dysfunctional power play now that they have four (or five, potentially) strong point men.  Resuming duties on the low boards, St. Louis should put up solid power play numbers, and his even strength numbers are consistent year in and year out (between 55 and 58 points each of the last four years).  At his age, a decline can come at any time, but even if it does, he should still manage a point per game this season.  Best case scenario?  There’s no decline whatsoever, and he scores 55-60 over a 48 game season.

#34 J.T. Wyman (W)

2011/2012 Season (Tampa Bay Lightning)

(GP)40     (G)2     (A)9     (PTS)11     (+/-)1     (PIM)8     (TOI/GP)10:32

At the time of this writing, it’s unknown if J.T. Wyman will see time in the NHL this year, and many believe he will be leapfrogged by younger, more offensively gifted players.  Last season was the first that Wyman saw regular action in the NHL, being brought up to the team in December of 2011.  The results were mixed, and it’s worth noting that Wyman had to clear waivers to remain with the club this past September.  Wyman was, however, one of few Lightning players to finish with a rating above par, and did so without being on the ice for many goals scored, and was a useful penalty killer.

Pertinent Statistics 

2011/2012 NHL: (GP)40

2011/2012 AHL: (GP)29

Wyman has yet to spend a full season in the NHL, and that’s unlikely to change this year.  Wyman needs to prove his worth to the team in camp with a good defensive showing, as he’s unlikely to be kept over some of the younger prospects for offensive purposes.

Interesting Statistics

2012/2013 AHL (Syracuse Crunch): (GP)34

Wyman has been playing this season, which could put him in position to have a strong training camp.  Many of the players who will be competing for a spot, however, have also been playing in Syracuse.

Statistical Anomaly

Vs. Montreal Canadiens: (GP)3     (G)1     (A)2     (PTS)3     (+/-)4

What to expect…

Wyman might be kept with the Lightning for his versatility.  The team has no lack of scoring, but it does need some good, hard-working players to play roles.  The acquisitions of Benoit Pouliot and B.J. Crombeen make it unlikely that Wyman will keep a regular spot in the lineup, but the team might carry him as an extra forward, inserting him where need be, and his play will determine the rest.

#44 Nate Thompson (C/LW)

2011/2012 Season (Tampa Bay Lightning)

(GP)68     (G)9     (A)6     (PTS)15     (+/-)-23     (PIM)21     (TOI/GP)14:49

Expected to resume his third line grinding duties will be Nate Thompson.  While his offensive output will never be much to marvel at, Thompson provides energy and grit while on the ice, and plays a physical game despite his somewhat average size.  He’s a guy that can give you 14-15 solid minutes a night.  Though last year’s plus/minus is a little troubling, it’s hard to hold that stat against any player not in a scoring role, considering how bad the Lightning defense and goaltending was last season.

Pertinent Statistics

2011/2012: (GP)68    (Hits)107

Thompson’s not afraid to play a physical game, which, as more and more scorers come out of Syracuse, is something the Lightning need.  He’s not perfect for the role, being just six feet tall and not of an overly large frame, but he’s had three straight seasons now with more than 100 total hits.  He also managed to block 56 shots last season, and was a mainstay on the penalty kill.

Interesting Statistics 

2011/2012 Face-Off%: 49.5

2010/2011 Face-Off%: 54.2

This is an issue that, aside from Adam Hall, needs to be addressed team-wide.  49.5% is passable, but it would be a great help to the team if Thompson could get back to the type of efficiency he had in the previous year.  As a penalty killer, it’s particularly important to his game, as one good clean face off win can set the tone for a shift and burn 30-40 valuable seconds off the clock.

Statistical Anomaly

On Mondays: (GP)7     (PTS)4

Go figure.

What to expect…

Hopefully a face off percentage above 50, and a steady, gritty effort night in, night out.  Don’t expect much scoring, but that’s not why he’s here.

#91 Steven Stamkos (C)

2011/2012 Season (Tampa Bay Lightning)

(GP)82     (G)60     (A)37     (PTS)97     (+/-)7     (PIM)66     (TOI/GP)22:01

Steven Stamkos had his best season to date, ultimately adding his name to the illustrious 60 goal club, with significant thanks to a stretch ran that saw him terrorize opposing team’s goaltenders.  He seemed to develop an extra gear in the second half of the season, and was suddenly exploding by defensemen rather than using his speed primarily to dart in and out of holes to wait to be set up.  His playmaking ability remains underrated, and should he ever be paired with a goal scoring winger, opposing goalies might well have panic attacks as they recognize the double-whammy position they’re in.

Stamkos has now joined, and is recognized as one of, the elite group of players in the NHL.  Most fantasy rankings had him placed third (behind Malkin and Crosby), and TSN’s recent list of the NHL’s top 50 players had him fourth (behind also Giroux).  And he is, at this moment, the undisputed league goal-scoring, having led all scorers twice now, and last season by good margin.  At this point, the focus should be rounding out his game and using his abundance of physical tools to make himself as much a contributor as he can be in all situations.  There’s plenty of time – he’s still just 22.

Pertinent Statistics

2011/2012: (GP)82     (G)60

2010/2011: (GP)82     (G)45

2009/2010: (GP)82     (G)51

Perhaps more than any other player in the world, Stamkos is now able to create scoring chances out of nothing, at any time, and seemingly anywhere from the blue line in.  He could always beat you with his shot, but now he can beat you with pure speed as well, and the combination of those things provided Lightning fans with plenty of breath-taking, “did he just do that?” moments last season.  He skates like a young Joe Sakic or Steve Yzerman, and has Brett Hull’s release.  That’s a terrifying recipe, and it’s getting better every year.

Pre-All Star Game: (GP)48    (G)32     (PTS)52

Post-All Star Game: (GP)34     (G)28     (PTS)45

If Stamkos’ 60 goal season wasn’t enough to make you feel good about this year, here’s some better news: He’s still getting better.  In 2010/2011, Stamkos took a lot of criticism for fading badly down the stretch (scoring just 7 goals and 24 points in his last 31 games).  This past season, Stamkos took his game to a level not previously seen from him down the stretch, and it seemed to be less the case of a hot streak than it was the case of a young player that had taken a step forward in his development.  If that’s the Steven Stamkos that returns to the Lightning this season, the “Rocket” Richard trophy won’t be the only NHL hardware within reach.

Interesting Statistics 

2011/2012: (G)60    (GWG)12     (OTG)5

Not only did Stamkos score a lot of goals last season, but he scored big goals.  His 5 overtime goals are an NHL record, and his 12 game-winners were tied for the league lead and 7 more than the next closest Lightning player.  Only 2 of those 60 goals were scored into empty nets.   Have I mentioned yet that this guy can score goals?

2011/2012 Face-Off%: 45.5

Yes, he can score goals.  But he can’t take face offs.  Stamkos was terrible taking face offs last year, and even worse in key situation face offs.  So now the decision is on him – does he want to just be a goal-scoring machine, or does he want to win?  So much of a hockey game is determined by its less glamorous statistics.  Stamkos has all the tools to turn himself into a player that can contribute in all situations, but it will take a lot of work.  The good news is, he’s reported to be constantly working on his game, so hopefully that includes working on his draws.

Statistical Anomaly

2011/2012 Post-All Star Game: (GP)34     (G)28     (PTS)45

2010/2011 Post-All Star Game: (GP)31     (G)7       (PTS)24

Seems a distant memory, doesn’t it?

What to expect…

Stamkos is the odds-on favorite to win another “Rocket” Richard trophy, and should challenge for the NHL (point) scoring title as well.  He scored a mind-boggling 48 of his 60 goals at even strength, so one must assume that an improved power play will benefit him.  He’s one of the few players in the NHL that have a realistic shot of scoring 40 goals this season, though the safer bet would be in the neighborhood of 35.  It’s hard to imagine him scoring under 30.

#? B.J. Crombeen (W)

2011/2012 Season (St. Louis Blues)

(GP)40     (G)1     (A)2     (PTS)3     (+/-)-2     (PIM)71     (TOI/GP)8:18

B.J. Crombeen was acquired from the St. Louis Blues in the off season to bring much needed grit and toughness to the Lightning lineup.  Many of my player evaluations have focused on such qualities, and in Crombeen, the Lightning have a no-nonsense player that is tough to play against.  While he’s a little undersized to be considered a true heavyweight NHL enforcer, Crombeen doesn’t back down from larger players when it’s time to drop the gloves.  To put it simply, the Lightning can’t afford to have Ryan Malone playing the role of enforcer.  And like it or not, if your team is loaded with undersized forwards, it’s best to have a policeman on the roster.

Pertinent Statistics

2011/2012 Fighting Majors:   9

2010/2011 Fighting Majors:   17

2009/2010 Fighting Majors:   18

Crombeen’s 9 majors last season came in an injury shortened year where he played just 40 games.  The Lightning’s leader in that category last season was Ryan Malone, with just 6.  Crombeen changes the look of the team, and his presence will be valued when the going gets tough.

Interesting Statistics

2011/2012 Major/Misconduct PIM:   55

2011/2012 Minor PIM:   16

There’s a lot of value in these numbers.  Despite spending plenty of time in the box, Crombeen rarely makes his team kill a minor penalty.  His minutes are racked up by dropping the gloves (to go along with the odd misconduct), and usually someone from the other team is going to be spending an equal amount of time off the ice.

Statistical Anomaly

2011/2012: (GP)40     (Hits)22

For a player that has a good physical edge to his game, Crombeen didn’t throw a lot of hits last season.  Then again, ice time could be a factor.

What to expect…

Goals and assists don’t matter with Crombeen.  His presence should make the more skilled players on the team better by giving them some assurance that there will be consequences if the opposing team gets out of line.

#? Benoit Pouliot (LW)

2011/2012 Season (Boston Bruins)

(GP)74     (G)16     (A)16     (PTS)32     (+/-)18     (PIM)38     (TOI/GP)12:13

Pouliot, a former fourth overall draft pick acquired over the summer from the Boston Bruins, will have an opportunity to play a larger role with the Lightning than with his former team.  At the time of this writing, it has already been floated that he might see second line duties with Vincent Lecavalier and Teddy Purcell.  He’s a lanky winger that appears to have more potential than what he’s fulfilled thus far in his NHL career.  If a job on the second line doesn’t materialize, he’ll provide plenty of energy to the third line and be a valuable role player with some bonus offense.

Pertinent Statistics

2011/2012: (TOI/GP)12:13

Pouliot is likely to see more ice time with the Bolts than he did with Boston.  He might find himself on the odd power play shift, might be used to kill penalties, and it will be up to him to prove he deserves more.  But the opportunities will be there for him.

Interesting Statistics

March/April 2012: (GP)18     (G)7     (A)7     (PTS)14

The Lightning are hoping this is a sign of what Pouliot is truly capable of.  He’s been long criticized for his inconsistent play in Boston.  Depending on where he plays, scoring will either be expected from him, or simply a bonus.  But it’s nice to have that kind of versatility in the lineup.

Statistical Anomaly

February 2012: (GP)13     (PTS)1     (+/-)-7

What to expect…

Pouliot should split time between the second and third line, either of which he might wind up a better fit on.  I would expect Coach Boucher to experiment with him on the power play, particularly if he finds good chemistry with any of his more offensive-minded teammates, which could make for a rise in production.  Whatever the case, there’s little doubt that having him on the roster is an improvement.

Next time: The Goalies

Thanks for reading.

- DFC

@DFrederickCook

After last time, where I previewed the Lightning’s expected defensive lineup, we now to shift our focus to the forwards.  This year, the Lightning will be fielding a formidable group, led obviously by 2011/2012′s goal-scoring leader, Steven Stamkos, and former league MVP and scoring leader, Martin St. Louis.

The top six Lightning forwards can compete with any team in the league, but from there, things get a little murky.  B.J. Crombeen and Benoit Pouliot have been brought in to help sure up the bottom six, and there are a number of prospects in Syracuse that might provide some scoring punch, but not necessarily  grit, to that area of the depth chart.  What that leads to is instability.  Most forwards not in the top six will be competing for their roster spot, night in, and night out.

At this point, we have a vague idea of what the lineup will look like on opening night.  Training camp will almost certainly change that, as Cory Conacher, Tyler Johnson, and Pierre Cedric-Labrie (who does, I should note, provide that afore-mentioned grit – in spades) will be gunning hard for a spot with the big club.

Let’s take a look, player by player, at last season’s twelve main forwards.

(Listed numerically…)

#4 Vincent Lecavalier (C)

2011/2012 Season (Tampa Bay Lightning)

(GP)64     (G)22     (A)27     (PTS)49     (+/-)-2     (PIM)50     (TOI/GP)18:56

Lecavalier missed 18 games with a broken hand near the end of last season, and saw his production slide for the third straight year.  While the long-time Lightning captain may no longer be the force he once was, he remains a large, rangy, and reasonably physical player, making him a nearly ideal second line center (or course, no one would complain if Lecavalier returned to 2007 form).  It’s interesting to note that just prior to injuring his hand, Lecavalier turned in a hot January, picking up 15 points in 12 games.  In the 48 games he played before the All Star break, he racked up 40 points – with a 48 game schedule on the horizon, no one would complain about getting 40 points from the captain.

Pertinent Statistics

2011/2012: (PPG)0.77     (TOI/GP)18:56

2006/2007: (PPG)1.32     (TOI/GP)22:36

Lecavalier’s production has been on a steady decline since his stellar 2006/2007 campaign.  Between then and now, his points-per-game averages are as follows, in order: 1.32, 1.14, 0.87, 0.85, 0.83, 0.77.  In short, he’s no longer a franchise player.  But luckily for the Lightning, he’s no longer expected to be.  That torch has been passed, and Lecavalier should remain a solid, if unprolific, scorer for the remainder of his career.

Interesting Statistic 

Contract Status:  8 Years Remaining, $61 Million

2012/2013 Cap Hit: $7.7 Million

That is the seventh highest cap-hit in the NHL.  The Tampa Bay Lightning are paying for a 2007 Vincent Lecavalier, but what they’re getting is the 2013 version.  And, even though many fans don’t like to admit it, that’s a problem.  Under the new CBA and cap limits, Lecavalier’s contract could pose plenty of problems for GM Steve Yzerman.  While it is very unlikely the Lightning will use one of their two buyouts on Lecavalier (Imagine walking into the owner’s office and asking him to cut that check), the new ability for teams to eat some of an outgoing player’s salary could open the door to a Lecavalier trade somewhere down the line.  The politics of such a trade (Lecavalier is very popular in Tampa) would be messy, but it might, at some point, become necessary.  His contract is a set of handcuffs that could keep the team from acquiring more crucial pieces to the puzzle.

It would be to both his and the Lightning’s benefit if he were to round out his game a little more.  He doesn’t bring the kind of intangibles that other players, once they find their skills declining, learn to bring.  He has the skill and the experience, and is not too old, to reinvent himself as a two-way player, and thus justify his contract.  Perhaps that’s wishful thinking…

Statistical Anomaly

On 2 Days Rest: (GP)17     (G)10     (A)7     (PTS)17

Those numbers could prove to be important.  With the upcoming condensed schedule, there will be fewer off-days between games.

What to expect…

While it’s unlikely he’ll ever return to 1.32 PPG form, Lecavalier might surprise fans this season with a slight bounce-back.  Last season, like most Lightning players, he suffered from a poor team power play, and posted just 11 points with the man-advantage (his lowest total since his rookie season).  The power play should be much improved in the coming season, and one of the key beneficiaries of that should be Lecavalier.

The shortened season could turn out to be a good thing or a bad thing for him – on one hand, he will suffer from having fewer days to  rest;  on the other hand, Lecavalier has always streaky scorer, and one long hot streak could make for a great season.  One long cold streak, however…

#11 Tom Pyatt (C)

2011/2013 Season (Tampa Bay Lightning)

(GP)74     (G)12     (A)7     (PTS)19     (+/-)-19     (PIM)8     (TOI/GP)14:48

Pyatt posted the best numbers of his career in 11/12, improving in every offensive category and collecting double digits in goals.  The goals, however, are a bonus for Pyatt, who’s role with the Lightning is that of a versatile depth forward who can kill penalties.  It’s hard to hold his -19 against him, since he doesn’t get much time in scoring situations, and the Lightning suffered from poor defense and goaltending.

Pertinent Statistics 

Short-handed:  (TOI/GP)2:11

Pyatt’s main function with the Lightning is that of a penalty killer.  He managed to block 52 shots last season, which is impressive given that he doesn’t see as much ice time as some other forwards.  He is unlikely to ever post impressive offensive numbers, but that’s fine – the Lightning have plenty of guys who can score.  What they really need from Pyatt is solid defensive play, since the team does not have an abundance of defense-first forwards.

Interesting Statistics

Home: (GP)39     (G)10     (PTS)16     (+/-)-2

Away: (GP)35     (G)2      (PTS)3     (+/-)-17

Team-wide, the Lightning need to improve their road play.  Pyatt’s -17 plus/minus rating needs to improve.  On the other hand, scoring 10 goals in just 39 home games is impressive from a forward who is not counted on for offense.

Statistical Anomaly 

Total Goals: 12

2nd Period Goals: 8

What to expect…

It’s unlikely that Pyatt will improve on his 12 goals from last season.  At 25, he is forging an identity as a defensive forward, and hopefully he will take more steps in that direction.  Defensive forwards tend not to truly come into their own until later in their careers, so there could still be some development taking place.  Although he’s undersized, an improved physical game would go a long way.

#12 Ryan Malone (LW)

2011/2012 Season (Tampa Bay Lightning)

(GP)68     (G)20     (A)28     (PTS)48     (+/-)-11     (PIM)82     (TOI/GP)17:41

Ryan Malone has yet to have a healthy season with the Lightning, never playing more than 70 games with the club in any campaign, so last year’s 68 was pretty much in line with our expectations.  In the games he does play, however, Malone provides great leadership, decent offensive production, and most importantly, a healthy dose of grit and sand (much needed, by the way) to the top six.  Malone was one of few Lightning players who didn’t see their power play production drop significantly, posting 15 points with the man-advantage(he’s regularly in the 15-18 range).  He provides a big body in front of the net, and is easily the most physical Lightning forward, capable of battling in the corners, and very willing to drop the gloves in defense of a star player.  Malone’s name seems to be mentioned in every Lightning trade rumor, and that probably won’t change, but, when healthy, he brings key ingredients to a winning recipe and is not easily replaced.

Pertinent Statistics

2011/2012: (GP)68     (Hits)142

Ryan Malone is a big, powerful winger that plays like a big, powerful winger.  His main job is to crash and bang and create room for his smaller, more slippery teammates.  And Malone does that job well.  He consistently averages more than two hits per game, and is not afraid to drop the gloves if need be (Malone fought 6 times in 2011/2012, which works out to more than 25% of the team’s total fights).  But don’t mistake Malone for strictly an enforcer – he is a man of many roles with the Lightning.  And even though he’s now 33, rumors of his decline, you will see, have been greatly exaggerated:

2011/2012: (PPG)0.71

Believe it or not, the 0.71 points-per-game average Malone posted last year is a career best for him.  Furthermore, his 48 points were just three shy of his career-high 51 (scored in 77 games-played with the 2007/2008 Penguins).  Malone is still capable of providing secondary scoring, even though scoring is not his main function with the team.

Interesting Statistics

Pre-All Star: (GP)41   (G)10     (TOI/GP)16:02

Post-All Star (GP)27    (G)10     (TOI/GP)20:11

Malone was a force down the stretch, and it resulted in more ice time.  Health could also have played a factor in those numbers.

Statistical Anomaly 

March 2012: (GP)15     (G)10     (PTS)15

What to expect…

More of the same.  We know what we’re getting from Malone by now – 2 points every 3 games, solid physical play, and nagging health issues.  He’ll split time between the top two, and possibly even top three, lines, and remain a constant on what should be an improved power play.  He should score 25-30 points in 40-45 games.

#14 Brett Connolly

2011/2012 Season (Tampa Bay Lightning)

(GP)68     (G)4     (A)11     (PTS)15     (+/-)-9     (PIM)30     (TOI/GP)11:28

Of the many new faces incorporated into the Lightning lineup last season, the one most likely to stick this year, and have an increased role with the team, is Brett Connolly.  Connolly got the first 68 games of his NHL career under his belt last season, with mixed results.  After an impressive performance for Team Canada at the World Junior Championship that saw him score 5 goals in 6 games, Connolly managed just 4 in his rookie NHL season.   Those numbers are somewhat deceiving, however, as Connolly appeared to be playing his best hockey down the stretch, but was positively snakebit.  He logged more minutes in March than any other month, and also racked up 31 shots on goal (to no avail).

Pertinent Statistics

2012/2013 AHL (Syracuse Crunch): (GP)36    (G)15    (A)18     (PTS)33

The Lightning have big expectations for Connolly, a former sixth overall pick in the NHL entry draft, but perhaps they jumped the gun on bringing him to the NHL.  Half a year spent in the AHL might be just what the doctor ordered.  Connolly’s production has steadily improved throughout the season with the Crunch, and at the time of this writing, he is the team’s second leading scorer.  With a little luck, his newly gained experience, and confidence, will help him thrive in what might be an expanded role with the big club this season.

Interesting Statistics

Total Goals: 4

November Goals: 4

All of Connolly’s goals in his rookie season were scored in November.  Things went poorly from there, though to Connolly’s credit he often appeared more the victim of bad luck than bad play.

As a junior player, Connolly was a sturdy winger known for his goal-scoring prowess (he potted 46 goals to just 27 assists in 59 games in his last season with Prince George in the WHL).  He possesses high end scoring ability, which, in years to come, should make him an excellent second option to Steven Stamkos, and help split opposing defenders’ attention.

Statistical Anomaly

On 2 Days Rest: (GP)19     (PTS)8

What to expect…

Connolly will be much better prepared for his second NHL season than his first.  He should win some time on the team’s second line, and perhaps a regular spot on the power play.  There’s no reason to think he won’t stick with the team for the full season, or to think he won’t out-pace last year’s numbers.

#16 Teddy Purcell (W)

2011/2012 Season (Tampa Bay Lightning)

(GP)81     (G)24     (A)41     (PTS)65     (+/-)9     (PIM)16     (TOI/GP)16:08

One of the many reasons why Tampa Bay might surprise a lot of hockey writers (who regularly predict the Lightning to miss the playoffs) is the continued emergence of Teddy Purcell.  As of now, Purcell is one of the best kept secrets in the league, and he finished last season in style – with a hat trick in his final game.  Purcell will likely see plenty of time on the team’s top line this season, and the power play.  He is a great piece to have.

Pertinent Statistics

Pre-All Star Game: (GP)47     (G)12     (A)15     (PTS)27     (TOI/GP)14:08

Post-All Star Game: (GP)34     (G)12     (A)26     (PTS)38     (TOI/GP)18:54

If there’s a reason to believe we’ve yet to see the best of Teddy Purcell, it’s that he finished last season on a tear.  If that Teddy Purcell shows up for this year’s entire 48 game schedule, it’s not unreasonable to expect 40-plus points.   He has great chemistry with both Stamkos and St. Louis, and, like many Lightning players, will likely benefit from an improved power play.  And should he not play with the top line this season, he will add excellent secondary scoring, and keep opposing teams honest about where they focus their attention.

Interesting Statistics

2011/2012: (GP)81     (Hits)17     (PIM)17

Despite possessing good size, Purcell’s not an overly physical player.  Even a moderate improvement in this area of his game could do wonders for his value with the team.

Statistical Anomaly

2011/2012: (+/-)9

Purcell is an average defender at best, and yet somehow managed to pull off a team-best +9 rating.

What to expect… 

Purcell could put up some surprising numbers this season.  20 goals and 45 points aren’t out of the question, though something in the neighborhood of 15 and 40 is a safer bet.  He’ll stick with the team’s top two lines, giving the Lightning plenty of looks and options with their scoring.

#18 Adam Hall (C)

2011/2012 Season (Tampa Bay Lightning)

(GP)57    (G)2     (A)5     (PTS)7     (+/-)-11     (PIM)17     (TOI/GP)11:52

Returning from Germany, where he spent the lockout playing with EV Ravensburg, Adam Hall should stick with the Lightning for the duration of this season despite plenty of younger, flashier talents waiting in Syracuse.  The veteran journeyman will return to his role primarily as the Lightning’s fourth line center, and also to their penalty killing units.

Pertinent Statistics

Face Off%: 59.5

Hall was not only Tampa Bay’s best face off man last year, he was also their only face off man that drew above 50%.  Playing on the fourth line, however, means Hall didn’t see nearly the volume of face offs as many of his teammates.  Still, he won nearly a hundred more face offs than he lost.  His fellow, more publicized, center-men would do well to take note (Steven Stamkos won an abysmal 45.5% of his draws, and Vincent Lecavalier was barely mediocre, winning just 48.7% of his).  If the Lightning want to be a winning team, they’ll need to do a better job in the less glamorous areas of the game.  Wouldn’t it be nice to start plays with possession of the puck a little more often?

Interesting Statistics

2011/2012 Short-Handed: (TOI/GP)2:52

2011/2012 Tampa Bay Lightning PK%: 79.6% (26th)

Hall was Tampa Bay’s primary penalty killing forward last season, but the results were not good.  The team’s penalty killing was among the worst in the league.  Before you put too much blame on Hall, consider this:

2010/2011 Short-Handed: (TOI/GP)2:48

2010/2011 Tampa Bay Lightning PK%: 84.4% (8th)

He was part of a much better penalty killing unit in the previous season.  It’s hard to imagine Tampa Bay’s goaltending (and defense) will be the disaster they were last year, so the team should have a much improved penalty kill.  While 8th in the league might be a bit much to hope for, finishing in the top half is not an unreasonable expectation.

Statistical Anomaly 

2011/2012: (GP)57     (SOG)63

2010/2011: (GP)82     (SOG)167

What to expect…

Hall provides stability and a veteran presence at the low end of the depth chart.  While I don’t think his spot will be usurped by any of the Lightning prospects this season, it wouldn’t be shocking to see GM Steve Yzerman bring in a higher profile role player to either play with Hall or even to perhaps replace him.  The recent additions of Benoit Pouliot and B.J. Crombeen are clear evidence that Yzerman is focusing on improving this area of the Lightning lineup.

Stay tuned for Part 2, which will feature Marty St. Louis, J.T. Wyman, Nate Thompson, Steven Stamkos, Benoit Pouliot, and B.J. Crombeen.

If you haven’t seen it, check out the previous installment: “A Look At The Statistics: The Lightning Defense.”  http://boltsbythebay.com/2013/01/08/a-look-at-the-statistics-the-lightning-defensemen/

Thanks for reading.

-DFC

@Dfrederickcook