Tampa Bay Lightning Fantasy Forecast: Forwards

#9 Tyler Johnson C

Apr 3, 2014; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning center Tyler Johnson (9) battles for the puck with Calgary Flames right wing Kevin Westgarth (15) in the first period at Tampa Bay Times Forum. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports

Age: 24

Height: 5’9

Weight: 175

2013/2014

GP: 82  G: 24  A: 26  Pts: 50  +/-: +23

The latest chapter in Tyler Johnson’s Cinderella story career was written last season, and it was the best yet.  Johnson, an undersized forward who went undrafted, followed up an MVP performance in the AHL in 2012/2013 with a Calder nomination in the NHL in 2013/2014.  He finished the year tied in goals with Colorado Avalanche super rookie Nate McKinnon and also tied Steven Stamkos for the most goals by a rookie in Lightning history.

What’s more impressive is Johnson earned his success the hard way.  He started the year centering Tampa Bay’s third line, and, little by little earned Coach Jon Cooper’s trust, and in turn, responsibility.

It was a combination of catastrophes that finally landed Johnson on Tampa Bay’s top line.  First, of course, there came Steven Stamkos’s nightmare leg break.  But what’s less remembered is the following stretch where the Lightning struggled to score goals with players like Teddy Purcell and Alex Killorn not cutting it on the top line.  That opened the door for Johnson to take on more of an offensive role.  He didn’t look back.

By December, Johnson was averaging 20 minutes per night (up from just over 16 in October).  His scoring also took a noticeable jump—Johnson scored seven goals and 14 points in 15 games in January, and 36 points (18 goals) in his final 53 games of the regular season.  And those numbers came despite Johnson playing visibly injured and getting very limited powerplay time near season’s end.

The name of Johnson’s game is speed.  He’s arguably the fastest player on the Lightning.  That, combined with his off-the-charts hockey IQ, led to five short-handed goals last season (tied for the league lead).  To put that in perspective, the rest of the Lightning team had a grand total of five short-handed goals, and it’s the most short-handed goals in a season by a Lightning player since Martin St. Louis and Vincent Lecavalier each had five in the 2006/2007 season.

The most underrated part of Johnson’s game is his shot.  It’s hard, accurate, and his release is quick enough to catch goalies by surprise.  Early in the season Johnson was snakebit, with pucks ringing off pipes or just being snagged up robbery-style by catching mitts.  But over time, the pucks started going in, and the league finally began to take note that this kid–let me remind you, this undrafted kid–can play.

2014/2015 Forecast: Reports are out that Johnson is coming to camp stronger this year.  Unlike last year, he won’t have to earn Cooper’s trust—he already has it.  Like a lot of Lightning players, Johnson could slot anywhere from first line to third line on opening night (proof of his versatility), but he’ll be an anchor on the penalty kill from the get-go.  He should also see consistent time on the second power play unit.

Getting back to the subject versatility, Johnson provides Cooper with a luxury few teams have: incredible center depth.  By slotting Johnson in on the third line, Cooper can have Stamkos, Filppula, and Johnson flying at opposing teams like a wave down the middle.  It’s an option that I believe will be too juicy for Cooper to resist for long, especially if players like Jonathan Drouin and Brett Connolly prove they can hang in the top-six.

Of course, third liners don’t score big points, so that would negatively affect Johnson’s numbers.  Of all the young Lightning players, Johnson appears to be the one with the least room to improve unless he adds another major element to his game.  Therefore he will likely score between 40 and 60 points for the foreseeable future, with a lot of his final numbers depending on whom he gets to play with.

In the upcoming season, I’m predicting a slight regression for Johnson, stats-wise, but his overall game will be as steady as ever.

2014/2015 Prediction

GP: 82   G: 17   A: 28   Pts: 45

#10 Brenden Morrow LW

Jan 10, 2014; Vancouver, British Columbia, CAN; St. Louis Blues forward Brenden Morrow (10) during the third period against the Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Arena. The Vancouver Canucks won 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Anne-Marie Sorvin-USA TODAY Sports

Age: 35

Height: 6’0

Weight: 205

2013/2014

(St. Louis Blues) GP: 71  G: 13  A: 12  Pts: 25  +/-: +1

On July 11, looking at a roster on which the oldest forward was Valtteri Filppula (30), Lightning GM Steve Yzerman made a low-key but shrewd signing when he added former St. Louis Blue and longtime Dallas Star Brenden Morrow.  At 35, Morrow brings experience and much-needed leadership to a young group of Bolts who are on their third captain in barely more than a calendar year.

Yzerman is more than familiar with Morrow—Morrow was a useful player on Yzerman’s 2010 Canadian Olympic team.  And there also handful of years during which their playing careers overlapped.  Morrow was named captain of the Dallas Stars in 2006, and unfortunately in the following season injuries began to pile up.  Morrow has managed to play a full 82 game schedule only twice since then, but he was a productive player when healthy up until about 2011 or 2012, excepting a short stint with the Penguins in 2013 when he put up 14 points in 15 games.

But if you’re optimistic that Morrow can regain something from his glory days in Tampa Bay, I would caution you to temper your hopes.  A long career in the trenches has sucked up just about all of Morrow’s speed, and he wasn’t the fastest guy to begin with.  (If you want to know how much that can hinder a player in today’s NHL, look no further than Ryan Malone‘s 2013/2014 season.)

What Morrow is at this point in his career is a solid character guy for younger players to learn from.  And that statement is a double-edged sword, because it means he doesn’t really get it done on the ice anymore.

2014/2015 Forecast: Essentially, Morrow will start the year as a replacement for B.J. Crombeen.  That’s not to say the door won’t be open for him to earn a bigger role with the team.  But early on, Morrow is likely to put in meat-and-potatoes shifts on the fourth line and spend his share of time in the press-box when the younger players are running on all cylinders.

However, if and when the kids struggle, Morrow presents Coach Cooper with an interesting option.  What Morrow lacks in skill these days, he makes up for with experience and heart.  He’s also a tough, gritty player, and plays the game the way Cooper likes it.  If the power play isn’t getting it done, don’t be surprised if Morrow gets a front-of-the-net assignment.  If the team needs a pick-me-up shift, don’t be surprised to see Morrow and Ryan Callahan out there in an attempt to light a fire.

In short, Morrow’s role with the team will be limited, but he’ll have the opportunity to expand it.

2014/2015 Prediction

GP: 55  G: 4  A: 10  Pts: 14

#11 Brian Boyle C/W

Jun 13, 2014; Los Angeles, CA, USA; New York Rangers center Brian Boyle (22) skates around Los Angeles Kings defenseman Drew Doughty (8) to score a short-handed goal during the second period in game five of the 2014 Stanley Cup Final at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Age: 29

Height: 6’7

Weight: 244

2013/2014

(New York Rangers) GP: 82  G: 6  A: 12  Pts: 18  +/-: +1

The biggest UFA signing the Tampa Bay Lightning made in this past off-season (and I mean biggest in the physical sense) was Brian Boyle.  Boyle is one of a number of players who seem to be making their way through an underground pipeline between Tampa Bay and New York lately, effectively turning each team into a semi-alumni team for the other. (In case you haven’t heard: Ryan Malone has recently signed with the Rangers.).

When the Lightning traded Nate Thompson to clear salary space prior to the draft, it was assumed Cedric Paquette would be taking his place.  But then, after the Lightning lost out on the Jarome Iginla sweepstakes, Steve Yzerman opted to bring in Boyle, inking the hulking center to a three-year, six million dollar contract.

Boyle, who began his career in L.A. blossomed into a valuable player in New York.  He scored 21 goals under John Tortorella in 2010/2011, but since then hasn’t come close to that kind of production.  Luckily for the Lightning, he hasn’t been brought here to score.

Boyle provides size and physicality in the bottom-six, which is something the Lightning were missing last year.  He can play wing as well as center, which opens up options for Jon Cooper in terms of line mixing.

2014/2015 Forecast: First and foremost, Boyle is a physical depth forward who can kill penalties.  But it’s hard to see all that size and not think about the possibilities.  For instance, could Boyle be successful screening a goalie on the Lightning powerplay?  Could he maybe dig pucks out of the corner for Steven Stamkos and Valtteri Filppula?

The most realistic answer is no.  But alas, we’re doomed to be hockey fans, and hockey fans tend to be optimistic at this time of year.

2014/2015 Prediction:

GP: 82  G: 8  A: 16  Pts: 24

#14 Brett Connolly RW

Sep 26, 2013; Estero, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning right wing Brett Connolly (14) skates with the puck against the Florida Panthers during the third period at Germain Arena. Tampa Bay Lightning defeated the Florida Panthers 3-2 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Age: 22

Height: 6’2

Weight: 193

2013/2014

(NHL) GP: 11  G: 1   A: 0   Pts: 1   +/-: -5

(AHL) GP: 66  G: 21  A: 36  Pts: 57  +/-: -6

One of the more interesting questions heading into the 2014 Tampa Bay Lightning training camp is: What’s going to happen to Brett Connolly?

The simple answer is this: Connolly will make the Lightning roster because he would otherwise have to pass through waivers and would be snapped up by another team.  He’s in much the same situation as Mark Barberio was last year.

Connolly, a former 6th overall pick in the NHL Draft, has been a bit of an enigma in his time with the organization.  While no one has ever questioned his physical skills, rumors about confidence issues have long plagued him.

Which could explain last season.  It’s hard to believe that just eleven months ago Connolly was considered at least the second hottest forward prospect in the Lightning’s system.  It was a bigger surprise, for instance, that Connolly was left off the final roster to open the 2013/2014 season than it was that Jonathan Drouin was also left off.  Why?  Because Connolly was arguably the team’s best player during the pre-season.

Since then, opinions on Connolly have been all over the map.  About a month after his demotion, after failing to produce in Syracuse, Connolly was called up to the Lightning on the strength of his pre-season performance.  He did not, however, repeat it.  Connolly was, at best, invisible during an 11 game stint with the Bolts, managing just a single goal.  The problem was chalked up mostly to—you guessed it—confidence.

Luckily for everyone involved, Connolly eventually hit his stride after being returned to Syracuse for the remainder of the season.  By year’s end, he was arguably the Crunch’s best player and had put up impressive numbers for a not-so-impressive team.

2014/2015 Forecast: Connolly will be given every opportunity to succeed in the NHL this year, and a lot of the questions about his mental makeup will be answered.

What does success look like?  Barring some miraculous chemistry with Steven Stamkos in the preseason, Connolly should start the year as a winger on the third line.  While he’ll still have a couple of quality linemates there (Alex Killorn, Nikita Kuchorov, Jonathan Drouin, Tyler Johnson, J.T. Brown, and more, are all candidates for third line duty), the limited offensive opportunities associated with being a “third liner” will keep a lid on his production.  Connolly has the potential to put up some serious numbers at the NHL level, but for this year, anything over thirty points should be considered a success.

What does failure look like?  It won’t be pretty.  While this isn’t Connolly’s last chance to become an NHL player, it could very well be his last chance with the Lightning.  That’s rough, and not entirely fair to Connolly, especially when you consider it was an 11 game NHL stint, and only that, that saw him get leapfrogged by several of his fellow prospects in the depth chart.  And now his future with the team isn’t assured because there are still a number of hungry prospects behind him, banging on the NHL’s door.  Therefore, if Connolly flounders, and if there are other players more deserving of his roster spot, don’t be surprised if Steve Yzerman quietly shops Connolly around the league in order to avoid putting him on waivers.

What will happen?  Connolly should benefit from potent linemates, regardless of where he slots.  If he winds up on the third line, there’s a strong chance he’ll be centered by either Johnson or Drouin.  And there’s still an outside chance he’ll slot higher, on one of the top two lines, in which case he’ll see his share of scoring chances.

But there are struggles ahead too–such is the case with most young players.  There could be long stretches of ineffective play and more than a few games spent in the press-box.

A lot could depend on the start Connolly gets off to.  Last pre-season, Connolly roared out of the gate, only to be devastated by a demotion to the AHL.  There’s no demotion in the cards for him this year, so if he can have a similar start, and build off it, he could prove a lot of his detractors wrong.

2014/2015 Prediction

GP: 70  G: 11  A: 21  Pts: 33

#17 Alex Killorn W

Jan 13, 2014; Columbus, OH, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning center Alex Killorn (17) skates with the puck against the Columbus Blue Jackets during the third period at Nationwide Arena. Columbus beat Tampa Bay 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Russell LaBounty-USA TODAY Sports

Age: 25

Height: 6’1

Weight: 202

2013/2014

GP: 82  G: 17  A: 24  Pts: 41  +/-: +8

On the surface, Alex Killorn had a solid sophomore year.  He scored 0.5 points per game, which is pretty good for a player of his ilk.  Below the surface, however, Killorn struggled for much of the season, looking pedestrian for long stretches and sometimes disappearing all together.

The problem can be traced back to the Steven Stamkos injury.  Up until then, Killorn had been enjoying an impressive sophomore campaign.  But when Stamkos went down, the Lightning found themselves short not only an All-World player, but also short a center.  Killorn had primarily played the wing as a professional, but did  have some experience at center in his college days, so he was a logical choice to fill in.  The results were not good.  Killorn struggled playing center at the NHL level, and then when he was returned to his spot on the wing, he spent much of the rest of the season trying to regain his early season form.

Here are some disturbing statistics.  Heading into that disastrous day in Boston, Killorn had posted 12 points in 16 games (0.75 points per game).  Over the rest of the season, 66 games, Killorn managed 29 points (0.44 points per game).  And those numbers are inflated by a solid January.  Killorn finished the season with just 8 points in his final 24 games (0.33 points per game).

That’s not to say the season was entirely bad.  It was more like a roller coaster.  And the lows weren’t entirely Killorn’s fault, since he was often the plug Jon Cooper used to fill holes all over the lineup, meaning he rarely settled in with regular linemates.  By year’s end he was getting only limited powerplay time as well, which isn’t going to help anybody’s offense.

Versatility is the name of Killorn’s game.  All of his skills are solid, NHL-caliber skills, which makes him an option for whatever situation the Lightning find themselves facing.

That said, there’s a marked difference between Killorn’s A game and his B game.  At his best, Killorn brings a lot of energy to the ice and he’s one of the Lightning’s better defensive forwards.  On his B game, Killorn can look lethargic, which a guy with his good-but-not-great skillset can’t get away with for any extended period of time.

2014/2015 Forecast: If Killorn finds himself on the Lightning’s third line for the majority of the season, that’s good news for the Lightning.  First and foremost, it will mean one or two of Killorn’s more naturally gifted teammates are thriving in top-six roles.  On top of that, Killorn’s combination of skills make him about as ideal a third line winger as you can find.  He can score, he can hit, and he can take care of business in the defensive end.

That said, the emergence of those same offensive prospects will likely limit Killorn’s offensive opportunities.  He’s a safe option, at the moment, for Cooper to use on a scoring line because he’s a known entity, which could buoy his production.  For a while.  But from a team standpoint, the less the Lightning rely on Killorn for offense, the better.

The fact that his icetime remained nearly identical in his first two seasons is telling: Killorn is what he is.  Don’t expect a big step forward.

2014/2015 Prediction

GP: 82  G: 12  A: 24  Pts: 36

#18 Ondrej Palat LW

Apr 8, 2014; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning left wing Ondrej Palat (18) reacts after scoring a goal against the Toronto Maple Leafs during the second period at Tampa Bay Times Forum. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Age: 23

Height: 6’0

Weight: 180

2013/2014

GP: 81  G: 23  A: 36  Pts: 59  +/-: +32

No Lightning player saw his value increase so dramatically as Ondrej Palat.  Coming into the season, Palat was Tyler Johnson’s little known winger, who somehow, someway, managed to put up 26 points in 18 AHL playoff games the year before.  Well, we all found out what somehow, someway, was all about.

When evaluating Palat, it’s important to note what he did when given an opportunity in an offensive role.  Bluntly, he became the Lightning’s best skater, and one of the best fifteen or twenty forwards in the entire league over the second half of the season.

The most telling statistic about just how good Palat was is his 44 points over his final 42 games of the season.  Early in the stretch, a lot of his success was credited to playing alongside Martin St. Louis. But if anything, Palat got better after St. Louis was traded.  He found instant chemistry with Valtteri Filppula and newly acquired Ryan Callahan on the second line.  In the 20 games Palat played post-trade deadline, he scored 11 goals, nearly half of his total output, and 21 points.  He held a +12 rating over that span as well.

2014/2015 Forecast: Critics of Palat will point to an inflated PDO (a combination of your team’s shooting percentage and save percentage) as proof his numbers will regress this season.  And while it’s true that Palat will likely regress from the point-per-game player he was over the second half, it’s unlikely that he’ll regress so much that he can’t reach the 59 points he totaled last year.  Keep in mind, Palat’s first half was spent primarily on the third line, with little to no powerplay time, and in fact he didn’t get significant powerplay time until after the St. Louis trade.  With a full year in the top-six, and on the first powerplay unit, Palat doesn’t actually have to improve his game to improve on last year’s totals.  It’s a matter of opportunity.

Another thing about PDO: Thanks to his sizzling shot, and therefore consistently high shooting percentages, Steven Stamkos regularly finishes seasons with PDO ratings well above the norm.  And guess who’s the leading candidate to play Stamkos’s left wing this season?  Ondrej Palat.  So Palat’s PDO rating might well stay somewhere near where it was last season.

All the stars seem aligned for a big season.  That could be thrown off track if Jonathan Drouin overtakes him as the team’s top winger, and even then only if Palat fails to rekindle the magnificent chemistry he had last year with Val Filppula.

2014/2015 Prediction

GP: 78  G: 28  A: 43  Pts: 71

#23 J.T. Brown W

Jan 13, 2014; Columbus, OH, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning right wing J.T. Brown (23) during the first period against the Columbus Blue Jackets at Nationwide Arena. Columbus beat Tampa Bay 3-2. Mandatory Credit: Russell LaBounty-USA TODAY Sports

Age: 24

Height: 5’10

Weight: 172

2013/2014

(NHL) GP: 63  G: 4  A: 15  Pts: 19  +/-: -9

(AHL) GP: 13  G: 4  A: 6   Pts: 10  +/-: +5

J.T. Brown was one of many players who spent a little time in Syracuse last year, as part of a high octane line with Nikita Kucherov and Vladislav Namestnikov.  Once he made the NHL, he never looked back.  While more touted rookies like Kucherov and Richard Panik spent significant time in the press-box down the stretch (and Panik was even demoted to the AHL), Brown managed to carve out a niche for himself in the bottom six.

Brown showed last year that offense is probably never going to be a major component in his game.  A little known fact is that Brown has yet to score a goal in 2014—the last time he lit the lamp was on December 23 of 2013 against Florida, a game in which he actually scored twice.  Even so, Brown managed to stick in the lineup by way of scrappy, energetic play.

Brown is the only player on team, for my money, who might arguably be faster than Tyler Johnson.  And he uses that speed to win races to dumped pucks, and to get himself involved in puck battles that by all rights he shouldn’t have even gotten to.  It’s his speed and tenacity that make him a valuable penalty killer, much like Johnson.  But he’s not likely to ever possess Johnson’s hands, so I wouldn’t expect much shorthanded offense.

2014/2015 Forecast: While I don’t have much faith in Brown’s offensive ability, I do think there’s a little bit of offensive upside left to be tapped.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see him be the “energy guy” on Steven Stamkos’s line–and inning puck battles when Stamkos is on the ice can score you points.

That said, Brown will spend most of the season in the bottom six where he’ll be an asset as a checking winger.

2014/2015 Prediction

GP: 75  G: 8  A: 17  Pts: 25

#24 Ryan Callahan RW

Apr 18, 2014; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning right wing Ryan Callahan (24) skates against the Montreal Canadiens during the third period in game two of the first round of the 2014 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Tampa Bay Times Forum. Montreal Canadiens defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning 4-1. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Age: 29

Height: 5’11

Weight: 190

2013/2014

(Tampa Bay Lightning) GP: 20  G: 6   A: 5   Pts: 11  +/-: +4

(New York Rangers)    GP: 45  G: 11  A: 14  Pts: 25  +/-: -3

Among the ugliest moments in Tampa Bay Lightning franchise history was the trade that saw Martin St. Louis force his way onto the New York Rangers.  The details of the situation have been debated to death already, so I won’t get into it again here.  Let’s just say it was a dark day for Lightning fans, but once we swallowed the bitter pill, we managed to see that the Steve Yzerman had actually managed to get a pretty good return on the deal.  And the return got better when the Rangers made the Eastern Conference Finals, thus turning the conditional 2nd rounder they were sending the Bolts’ way into a first rounder.  (The first rounder was later traded to the New York Islanders for a pair of second rounders, and ultimately turned into prospects Dominik Maskin and Johnathan MacLeod.)

Ryan Callahan, initially, was almost like an afterthought in the deal.  First and foremost, he wasn’t (and isn’t) the player that St. Louis is, and secondly, there was no way we were going to pay him his ridiculous contract demands.  We had every reason not to like this guy, or at the very least be indifferent toward him.  But by his second game in a Lightning jersey, Ryan Callahan had won just about all of us over.  He turned out to be the silver lining to the dark cloud hanging over the St. Louis deal.

By season’s end, most Lightning fans, this writer included, were more than happy to shell out the salary and term required to keep Callahan’s services.  He proved to be about as perfect a fit with the team as one could ask for, bringing to the Lightning elements they had previously lacked.

Perhaps this will be an unpopular statement, but I believe it’s absolutely true: The Tampa Bay Lightning are a better team with Ryan Callahan than they were with Martin St. Louis.  That’s not to say Callahan is a better player—he clearly is not.  But, where St. Louis was/is primarily a scorer, Callahan helps the Lightning address several weaknesses.  He’s a top-notch penalty killer, for one, and he’s a much-needed presence in front of the net on the power play.  His energy is infectious and the team visibly feeds off it.

The Lightning can score goals all day long, and that’s true with or without St. Louis.  Callahan, even if he only pitches in 40 or 50 points, checks a lot of the other boxes on the list for building a successful team.

2014/2015 Forecast: It’s my belief that Callahan’s reputation as an injury prone winger is greatly overblown.  In the last three seasons, Callahan has missed a whopping total of 24 games (or an average of 8 games per season).  70-75 games is a realistic expectation for him, and if he manages that, he’ll be a threat to score 50 points.

Production-wise, Callahan’s bread and butter is likely to be the power play.  Five of his 11 points with the Lightning last season came with the man-advantage, thanks to instant chemistry sparked with the first unit.

Callahan is responsible for handling the power play’s dirty work, and he’s better at it than anyone the Lightning have had in recent years.  He goes to the front of the net, he wins the puck along the boards, and he fights hard to make passes to his more skilled teammates.  When one of those teammates is Steven Stamkos, you tend to get points.

2014/2015 Prediction

GP: 72  G: 22  A: 25  Pts: 47

#27 Jonathan Drouin C/LW

Sep 26, 2013; Estero, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning left wing Jonathan Drouin (27) skates with the puck as Florida Panthers defenseman Erik Gudbranson (44) defends during the second period at Germain Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Age: 19

Height: 5’11

Weight: 186

2013/2014

(QMJHL) GP: 46  G: 29  A: 79  Pts: 108  +/-: +50

You can find the numbers all over the place.  Each statistic about Jonathan Drouin’s final year in the QMJHL is more impressive than the last.

He scored 41 points in 16 playoff games.

He scored 77 points in what will hopefully be the final 28 games of his QMJHL career.

Or, here’s one for you: He scored 74 points during a 26 game scoring streak that spanned from February 9—April 23 of 2014.

Wait, how about this one: In 2014, Drouin scored 99 points in 39 games.

And then there was that six point performance that he followed up less than two weeks later with a seven point performance.

…So you might say the kid had a good season.

But what makes Drouin’s numbers even more impressive is that his return to Halifax didn’t start out smoothly.  There were rumors about his lethargic play and that he was visibly disappointed over his demotion to the Mooseheads.  Then there came a groin injury.  But somewhere around the first of the year, something clicked in Drouin and he didn’t look back.  He dominated the QMJHL like no one since Sidney Crosby (hold your horses though—Drouin’s a year older than Crosby was when Crosby dominated.  And that extra year is a big deal).  The numbers are staggering.

What’s even better is, while putting up those gaudy statistics, Drouin somehow found time to round out his game and become a better defensive player.  He also made the transition from wing to center, and now says he’s equally comfortable at either position.

If you’ve never seen Drouin in action, you’re in for a treat.  He’s a magician with the puck and his moves might best be described as “electric.”  He dekes with his entire body, often making defenders look silly while he threads multiple needles on his way to the net.

That same flash, however, has led Drouin’s detractors to believe his game won’t translate to the NHL.  And it’s a fair point.  NHL defenders aren’t 17 year-old kids trying to strip you of the puck—they’re full grown, often angry men, and they have bad intentions for you.  Drouin will have to get used to that and there will likely be an adjustment period.

But Drouin’s main weapon, beyond even the magical hands and the silky moves, beyond even his creativity, is his hockey IQ.  Given enough time, he should be able to adapt to whatever the NHL throws at him and find a way to be, at the very least, effective.  He’s too good, and too smart, not to be.

2014/2015 Forecast: One of the many things we learned about Jon Cooper last season was this: young players have to earn their stripes with him.  Cooper used far and away the most rookies of any coach in the league last year, but he was careful about to whom he handed major responsibility.  The same will be true for this year’s rookie class.  It’s best not to expect Drouin to have a spot ready and waiting for him on the Bolts’ first power play unit, and the smart money is on Ondrej Palat starting the year on Steven Stamkos’s wing.

But early reports about Drouin out of Tampa Bay, heading into the pre-season, are overwhelmingly glowing.  He’s added size, he’s confident, his skills are off the chart, and more than anything else, he’s putting in the work required to be a star player—and then some.

There’s no real way to predict where Drouin will start the year.  It could be anywhere in the top nine, on either the left side or at center.  But the long-term goal is clear—from the moment the Lightning drafted Drouin, Lightning fans have envisioned him playing with Steven Stamkos.  Drouin will likely get a tryout in that spot in the pre-season, but if he doesn’t develop instant chemistry with Stamkos, I would expect Drouin to start the year in a more sheltered role.  And work his way up.

2014/2015 Prediction

GP: 82  G: 16  A: 39  Pts: 55

#51 Valtteri Filppula C

Apr 8, 2014; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning center Valtteri Filppula (51) skates with the puck against the Toronto Maple Leafs during the first period at Tampa Bay Times Forum. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Age: 30

Height: 6’0

Weight: 195

2013/2014

GP: 75  G: 25  A: 33  Pts: 58  +/-: +5

One of the more interesting things that happened last year was Steve Yzerman made believers out of even his most cynical critiques.  And perhaps the move that best illustrates how Stevie knows best was his signing of long-time Red Wing Valtteri Filppula in the 2013 off-season.

I confess, even my own faith was shaken when I heard the news.  Filppula was coming off the worst season of his professional career, and here Yzerman was handing him a multi-year contract worth $5 million per.  It reeked of desperation to find someone, anyone, to fill the second line hole made when Yzerman bought out the contract of Vincent Lecavalier (ironically, the least controversial of Yzerman’s many moves over the last few years).

And then Filppula turned out to be just what the doctor ordered for a Lightning team that struggled defensively.  At key moments this year, Filppula was the Lightning’s best player, and he turned out to be perhaps the best 2013 UFA signing league-wide.

What’s most impressive about Filppula’s game is his poise.  And that’s important when your teammates have a nasty habit of panicking under pressure.  By contrast, Filppula is a much needed calm, cool, and collected presence on the ice, regardless of the situation.  He is the ying to Ryan Callahan’s yang, and their combined influence had a tremendous effect on their young teammates last year.  At their best, the Lightning played an energetic game, but not one that they let get out of control.

Filppula had what was arguably the best year of his career in Tampa Bay, and I would argue he did that despite having a black hole from which no offensive chance survived playing his left wing for most of the year.  That black hole was named Teddy Purcell, who has since been traded for a player that the Lightning immediately bought out.

The future looks even brighter for Filppula.  Cerebral players of his ilk tend to age gracefully, especially when they maintain good off-ice habits.

2014/2015 Forecast: Filppula centered what was arguably the Lightning’s most effective line of the 2013/2014 when Jon Cooper finally demoted Teddy Purcell to the fourth line, thus unburdening Filppula, who had been shouldering Purcell for much of the season.  Filppula’s new linemates were Ondrej Palat and Ryan Callahan, a line affectionately known as Palahan, and it was dominant.

Whether or not that line will stay intact to begin the 2014/2015 season remains to be seen, but one thing is for sure: there are more options, and better options, for Filppula’s wing this year than there were last year.  Be it Callahan, Palat, Jonathan Drouin, Nik Kucherov, Alex Killorn, Tyler Johnson, or what have you, Cooper shouldn’t have trouble finding a linemates to take advantage of Filppula’s considerable two-way talent.

Personally, I wouldn’t mind seeing Filppula and Stamkos tried out together—Tyler Johnson, after all, is more than capable of centering the team’s second line in Filppula’s absence.  Filppula and Stamkos found instant chemistry on the power play, with Filppula finding a nice balance between dishing the puck to Stamkos and using Stamkos as the league’s most effective decoy.

If Filppula remains healthy, and sticks with the first power play unit, he could be in for a significant increase in production.

2014/2015 Prediction

GP: 80  G: 24  A: 44  Pts: 68

#71 Richard Panik W

Mar 13, 2014; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning right wing Richard Panik (71) skates with the puck as Florida Panthers defenseman Brian Campbell (51) defends during the second period at Tampa Bay Times Forum. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Age: 23

Height: 6’1

Weight: 208

2013/2014

(NHL) GP: 50  G: 3  A: 10  Pts: 13  +/-: -9

(AHL) GP: 13  G: 3  A: 8   Pts: 11  +/-: +1

Richard Panik’s rookie NHL season delivered few high points and a great many lows, chief of which was a month-plus demotion to the Syracuse Crunch.  He made the Lightning roster last year on the strength of his line, alongside Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat, but ultimately those two went on to bigger and better things while Panik floundered at the NHL-level and struggled just to stay in the lineup.

Physically, Panik comes with skills that should make him an impact top-six NHL player.  He can skate, he can shoot, he has good size and he knows how to use it.  But his decision-making leaves a lot to be desired, and occasionally he’ll throw a real head-scratcher at you.

By midway through the year, it was no secret that Panik had landed himself in Jon Cooper’s doghouse, and on January 24 he found himself with a ticket back to Syracuse.  The demotion, however, turned out to be a blessing in disguise.  Panik wound up scoring 11 points in 13 games for the Crunch, and when he returned to the Lightning just over a month later, he still struggled to find offense, but he looked like a capable NHLer and was, at times, a real asset.

Panik is the most enigmatic player in the Lightning organization.  As to his future: I would not be surprised to see him turn into a perennial 50 point scorer, given his considerable talents, but I would be equally unsurprised if he wound up playing the bulk of his career in Europe.  I have other predictions involving space aliens.  Anything and everything is on the table when it comes to Panik.

2014/2015 Prediction: Aside from Brett Connolly, no Lightning player has more to prove this year than Panik.  He saw his value decrease more and more as last season went on.  If Panik fails to find a role with the Lightning this year, he might not have a long-term future with the club.  There are always hungry prospects in the pipeline, and that’s especially true now, with kids like Cedric Paquette and Vlad Namestnikov looking very much ready for an NHL gig.

But again: All that talent…  It’s not something you can just ignore.  Panik is still just 23, his NHL career is only 75 games old, and sometimes power forwards take a little more time to figure out the big leagues.  If Panik can find steady linemates early on and get into a groove, he could finally bring his AHL game to the NHL.  If that happens, 40 points is not out of the question.

That is, however, unlikely.  More realistically, and conservatively, a good season for Panik would be anything where he’s an offensive threat while not making harmful mistakes.

2014/2015 Prediction

GP: 65  G: 6  A: 17  Pts: 23

#86 Nikita Kucherov W

Mar 1, 2014; Dallas, TX, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning right wing Nikita Kucherov (86) skates against the Dallas Stars during the game at the American Airlines Center. The Lightning defeated the Stars 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Age: 21

Height: 5’11

Weight: 178

2013/2014

(NHL) GP: 52  G: 9   A: 9   Pts: 18  +/-: +3

(AHL) GP: 17  G: 13  A: 11  Pts: 24  +/-: +1

Nikita Kucherov started his NHL career with a bang, scoring a goal on his very first shift.  Before that, he’d been tearing up the AHL, and in the first dozen or so games of the AHL season was even flirting with a goal-per-game.

When assessing Kucherov’s rookie season, it’s important to remember one thing: This wasn’t supposed to be his rookie season.  Kucherov was supposed to spend at least one year in the AHL.  But the Stamkos injury, combined with the Lightning’s need for a quick offensive fix, combined with Brett Connolly sputtering in the NHL, fast-tracked Kucherov to the big leagues.

Particularly early on, Kucherov showed flashes of brilliance.  There was about a fifteen game stretch where he averaged right about a breakaway per game, and it seemed like every goal post in the league was playing a prank on him.  He created plenty of offense but failed to finish on his chances, despite having arguably the second or third best shot on the team.  He still managed a very respectable nine points in 15 games in January.  Yet despite that, it always seemed like he was capable of more.  A lot more.

Eventually, frustration got the better of Kucherov, and his game suffered for it.  By the end of the season he was a regular healthy scratch.

Coming into this season, Kucherov is one of few Lightning players without a completely secure roster spot.  Because he wouldn’t have to pass through waivers to be demoted to Syracuse, his spot could be usurped by a hungry prospect at training camp.  While that scenario is unlikely, it’s very possible, particularly when you consider, as of now, there appears to be no room on the team for Cedric Paquette, Vladimir Namestnikov, and Adam Erne, each of whom are more than capable of having a fantastic camp.  (Rumor has it, for instance, that the team thought long and hard about keeping Erne around for nine games last season.)

Kucherov’s season could come down to how much work he put in over the summer.  Jonathan Drouin, for instance, is said to have packed on a noticeable amount of muscle.  Kucherov is listed at 178 pounds by ESPN.com, and 171 pounds by NHL.com.  If I had to guess, I would say the league’s website is closer to the truth, but still exaggerating.

That said, the skill is there, and there’s a load of it.  Kucherov is one of the faster handful of players on the team, has a shot that might only be second to Steven Stamkos’s, and his moves with the puck and his offensive instincts are both top-notch.  The only question is whether or not, in this coming season, he’s around to adapt those skills to the NHL, or if he uses them to eat the AHL alive.

2014/2015 Forecast: Kucherov should stick with the team, although I don’t think it will be an easy decision to keep him around.  If he does stay around, however, don’t be surprised to see him given more offensive opportunity than last season.  While there doesn’t appear to be room on the Lightning’s first power play unit, there is a big fat vacancy on right wing in the top-six.  Kucherov is probably going to have a chance to win that role, and if he does, it’s only a matter of time before something clicks.

There are probably still going to be struggles, however.  Kucherov is, after all, just 21 years old still, and has very little pro hockey experience.  If he struggles early in the season, the team might pull the trigger on demoting him to Syracuse before his waiver exemption is lost.

But we’ll stay optimistic for the time being.

2014/2015 Prediction

GP: 82  G: 18  A: 23  Pts: 41

#91 Steven Stamkos C/RW

Mar 19, 2014; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Tampa Bay Lightning center Steven Stamkos (91) gets ready for a face-off against the Toronto Maple Leafs at Air Canada Centre. The Lightning beat the Maple Leafs 5-3. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports

Age: 24

Height: 6’1

Weight: 190

2013/2014

GP: 37  G: 25  A: 15  Pts: 40  +/-: +9

Perhaps the most promising thing about last year’s Lightning season was, despite how great it was, it could have been a lot better.  And that bodes well for this year.  Ondrej Palat, for instance, on the surface, was a player who scored 59 points—not too shabby.  But a closer look reveals that he spent half the season getting very little offensive opportunity, and therefore should thrive with a full season of offensive opportunity.

A likewise veiled threat is the Lightning’s resident super sniper, Steven Stamkos.  Now, it may sound strange that a former 60 goal-scorer who’s just 24 years old could be a veiled anything, but the truth of the matter is Steven Stamkos may no longer be what the rest of the league thinks he is.  He might, if we’re lucky, be a lot more.

Stamkos, prior to the broken leg that cost him over half the season, was playing the best hockey of his career.  And it extended far beyond the goals he was piling up.  Stamkos was digging hard in the corners, he was back-checking with urgency, he was even playing physical and throwing the odd hit.  He was leading by example.  Although it only lasted for 16 games, it was the fruition of what Stamkos has been saying for years now: He wants to become a complete player.

That’s why I think we’ll see the return of that type of play this year.  When Stamkos returned from injury last season, he was clearly not at a hundred percent, and, if we’re being honest, he had reverted to something of a one-trick pony (That trick, a laserbeam one-timer, is worth a lot on its own, mind you).  But Stamkos is reported to be, at the very least, “close” to one hundred percent now, so last season might wind up being no more than a bump on the road that leads to Stamkos being the player he’s always wanted to be.

Of course, there are those who say Stamkos won’t be as dangerous without Martin St. Louis on his wing.  And that’s a fair point.  But it’s a point that goes both ways—it’s not like St. Louis was racking up points by passing the puck to John Scott.  He was passing the puck the Steven Stamkos.  And Steven Stamkos scores goals.

Luckily, the Lightning are stocked with players who should be able to get him the puck with regularity.  Valtteri Filppula, if anything, looked like an improvement over St. Louis on the power play, and developed instant chemistry with Stamkos.  Ondrej Palat appears to bring out the best in every one he plays with and could probably turn a trained monkey into an offensive threat.  And then there’s Jonathan Drouin, whose vision and playmaking ability should make him a perfect partner in crime for Stamkos–someday.  And perhaps sometime this season.

2014/2015 Forecast: The one real question about Stamkos’s ability to regain his Scoring King form, a question more legit than the St. Louis questions, is this: Will his leg ever be the same?

I know a lot of us don’t want to hear that.  But the injury Stamkos suffered was pretty horrific.  When he returned at the end of the season, he rarely showed more than the occasional glimpse of the explosive speed he’d possessed beforehand.  One hopes that was just a matter of where he was in his recovery.  And yet, still, until we actually see post-injury Stamkos play like pre-injury Stamkos, it’s hard to be completely optimistic.  We’ll try, of course.

Stamkos managed 11 goals and 17 points in the 20 games he played upon returning.  While those numbers aren’t bad by any means, they’re not up to Stamkos’s standard.  (I would urge you to remember that he played a few of those games with Teddy Purcell on his wing, however, and Purcell, the anti-Palat if you will, had a negative effect on just about every linemate he had all year.)

Stamkos’s production this year should depend on two things: First, whether or not he develops chemistry with his even strength wingers.  And second, whether or not his focus on becoming a complete player negatively affects his scoring, as sometimes happens to players.  His power play numbers should improve, if anything, as should the Lightning’s power play as a whole.

The main effect of losing St. Louis could turn out to be Stamkos’s assist totals–they could rise.  For years, under Guy Boucher, the Lightning’s offense was primarily based around the rush into the offensive zone.  St. Louis’s main focus always seemed to be getting the puck to Stamkos, even, at times, to a fault.  Under Jon Cooper, however, the Lightning offense is transitioning into one that cycles the puck, and more and more players who thrive in that sort of offense are coming to the forefront.  They drive the net more effectively than they have in years past, and Cooper stresses that they get pucks on net as their first option, rather than attempting a low percentage pass.

To further that point, the Lightning simply have better shooters now than they have in recent memory.  Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucherov, and even Brett Connolly, are all natural goal-scorers.  Ryan Callahan is a regular 20-plus-goal man, and Valtteri Filppula scores his share of goals (when he elects to shoot the puck—an all too rare occasion).  Add to that that the Lightning have added Jason Garrison, a known cannon on the point, and that Victor Hedman, in Stamkos’s absence, emerged as a legitimate scoring threat.

The table seems set for Stamkos to have a bigger-than-usual assist year, although his goal total could go down slightly from not being a first and constant option for his linemates.

2014/2015 Prediction

GP: 82   G: 46   A: 50  Pts: 96

The Other Guys

Apr 20, 2014; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Tampa Bay Lightning associate coach Rick Bowness (L) and head coach Jon Cooper (R) look on from behind the bench during the first period in game three of the first round of the 2014 Stanley Cup Playoffs against the Montreal Canadiens at the Bell Centre. Mandatory Credit: Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports

Unlike last season, when it seemed like every roster spot on the team was up for grabs in training camp, most of the uncertainty about who would be on this year’s team was cleared up in the off-season when Steve Yzerman acquired Brian Boyle and Brenden Morrow via free agency.  On top of that, Brett Connolly (because of his waiver status) and Jonathan Drouin (because he’s too good for the QMJHL) are virtual locks for the team.

But because upsets do happen, it would be a mistake to completey write off the rest of the Lightning prospects who’ll be showing up for training camp.  And, as we learned all too well last season, injuries happen too.  Over the last two years the Lightning have dipped liberally into the Syracuse Crunch roster.  In some cases (JT Brown and Nikita Kucherov), those call-ups have led to full-time NHL jobs.  In others (Vladislav Namestnikov and Cedric Paquette), the call-up served as a valuable first taste of NHL action.  Still others (Brett Connolly, Dana Tyrell) were less than successful.

If there’s a full time spot on the roster up for grabs, it’s probably the one we assume will go to Nikita Kucherov.  Kucherov got off to a hot start in the NHL, but struggled mightily down the stretch, and ultimately wound up spending more time in the press-box than management would have liked.  If he underperforms in training camp, or is legitimately outperformed by a prospect, it’s not unthinkable that Kucherov would be sent to Syracuse to lead what should be a strong team.  If you’re wondering why other question-mark-type players are safe (namely Brett Connolly and Richard Panik), it’s because, unlike Kucherov, those players would have to pass through waivers in order to be demoted.

In that regard, training camp’s best darkhorse prospect is likely Adam Erne.  Rumor has it that Erne was closer than anyone anticipated to making the team last year before he wound up suspended in the pre-season.  If he performs well again this year, the Lighting could send Kucherov to Syracuse while giving Erne his nine game look in the NHL.  Because a demotion would send Erne to junior, not to the AHL, he won’t be eligible for a recall once demoted.  That might give the Lightning incentive to keep him around a little longer, thus delaying the final decision.

Erne had a chaotic year in the QMJHL that included a blatantly illegal check that injured fellow Bolts’ prospect Jonathan Drouin, an injured spleen, and finally an injured wrist on which he had off-season surgery.

Who the first player recalled from Syracuse will be will likely depend on which Lightning player is injured, but the choice will probably come down to Vladislav Namestnikov and Cedric Paquette.

Paquette got his first taste of NHL action last season and seemed to win over Jon Cooper.  In the off-season, when Steve Yzerman shipped Nate Thompson to Anaheim, it appeared Paquette was already penciled in on the Lightning’s fourth line.  And perhaps he was, but that changed when the team acquired Brian Boyle on July 1.  Now, it appears Paquette’s immediate future is in Syracuse.

Paquette is a workhorse, the prototypical bottom-six grinder, but he comes with more scoring touch than you’d expect.  Last year in Syracuse, as a first year pro, Paquette scored 20 goals and 44 points in 70 games, and also racked up 153 penalty minutes.  At just 21, he’ll probably have to wait another year or two to stick with the roster full-time, but he has an outside shot to make the team this year.  Even if he doesn’t, he’s likely to see at least a few games in the NHL.

Namestnikov was arguably the Crunch’s best player last year (if it wasn’t Brett Connolly).  He also played four games with the Lightning, and although he didn’t put up any points in those games, he didn’t look out of place either.  Namestnikov’s game is pretty complete.  He’s skilled enough to be a scorer and aware enough to defend well.  If a bit of scoring touch is required in Tampa Bay, Namestnikov is likely to get the call.

Despite suffering a broken hand midway through the AHL season, Namestnikov still managed 48 points (in 56 games) in his second year with the Crunch.  Because the Lightning are fairly well stocked with skilled forwards, it would be a surprise to see Namestnikov make the team out of camp, but he should see some time in the NHL at some point, and challenge for a regular roster spot in the 2015/2016 season.

Aside from those three, it would be a huge surprise to see another prospect given real consideration for a roster spot.  Even in the cases of Erne, Namestnikov, and Paquette, odds seem pretty solid they won’t be on the roster on opening night (or for the year, in Erne’s case).

But there will be several players at camp looking to make a good impression for the future.  Henri Ikonen, for instance, will be heading to Syracuse to begin his career as a pro.  Ikonen, who just turned 20, spent last year playing alongside scoring dynamo Sam Bennett (who went on to be drafted 4th overall by the Calgary Flames this past June) for the OHL’s Kingston Frontenacs.   Ikonen put up 70 points in 54 games—not too shabby.

Other faces at camp: Cody Kunyk signed with the Lightning at the end of last season after four years at the University of Alaska-Fairbanks, and even got his first NHL game under his belt.  He should spend this year in Syracuse.   Tanner Richard, 21, will be looking to rebound from a shaky year with the crunch.  Jonathan Marchessault is yet another undersized scorer who was acquired from Columbus at the trade deadline, and, at almost 24, the added experience he comes with might make him an appealing call-up option if he’s having a good season in Syracuse.  Other options are: Yanni Gourde, Jeff Costello, Philippe Paradis, Dalton Smith, and perhaps Joel Vermin.

Further out are prospects like Brendan O’Donnell.  O’Donnell did a lot to raise his stock at the Lightning’s developmental camp in July, but he’s scheduled to return to the University of North Dakota for his fourth year of college hockey.  Other college players not yet scheduled to make their pro  debuts are Brian Hart and Matthew Peca (Peca could make a case for himself as early as 2015/2016).  Aside from college players, there’s newly drafted Brayden Point, who’s looking like a steal of a third round pick, but barring divine intervention will be returned to the WHL.

There you have it.

Thanks for reading.