Tampa Bay Lightning Fantasy Forecast: Forwards
#9 Tyler Johnson C
Apr 3, 2014; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning center Tyler Johnson (9) battles for the puck with Calgary Flames right wing Kevin Westgarth (15) in the first period at Tampa Bay Times Forum. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports
Age: 24
Height: 5’9
Weight: 175
2013/2014
GP: 82 G: 24 A: 26 Pts: 50 +/-: +23
The latest chapter in Tyler Johnson’s Cinderella story career was written last season, and it was the best yet. Johnson, an undersized forward who went undrafted, followed up an MVP performance in the AHL in 2012/2013 with a Calder nomination in the NHL in 2013/2014. He finished the year tied in goals with Colorado Avalanche super rookie Nate McKinnon and also tied Steven Stamkos for the most goals by a rookie in Lightning history.
What’s more impressive is Johnson earned his success the hard way. He started the year centering Tampa Bay’s third line, and, little by little earned Coach Jon Cooper’s trust, and in turn, responsibility.
It was a combination of catastrophes that finally landed Johnson on Tampa Bay’s top line. First, of course, there came Steven Stamkos’s nightmare leg break. But what’s less remembered is the following stretch where the Lightning struggled to score goals with players like Teddy Purcell and Alex Killorn not cutting it on the top line. That opened the door for Johnson to take on more of an offensive role. He didn’t look back.
By December, Johnson was averaging 20 minutes per night (up from just over 16 in October). His scoring also took a noticeable jump—Johnson scored seven goals and 14 points in 15 games in January, and 36 points (18 goals) in his final 53 games of the regular season. And those numbers came despite Johnson playing visibly injured and getting very limited powerplay time near season’s end.
The name of Johnson’s game is speed. He’s arguably the fastest player on the Lightning. That, combined with his off-the-charts hockey IQ, led to five short-handed goals last season (tied for the league lead). To put that in perspective, the rest of the Lightning team had a grand total of five short-handed goals, and it’s the most short-handed goals in a season by a Lightning player since Martin St. Louis and Vincent Lecavalier each had five in the 2006/2007 season.
The most underrated part of Johnson’s game is his shot. It’s hard, accurate, and his release is quick enough to catch goalies by surprise. Early in the season Johnson was snakebit, with pucks ringing off pipes or just being snagged up robbery-style by catching mitts. But over time, the pucks started going in, and the league finally began to take note that this kid–let me remind you, this undrafted kid–can play.
2014/2015 Forecast: Reports are out that Johnson is coming to camp stronger this year. Unlike last year, he won’t have to earn Cooper’s trust—he already has it. Like a lot of Lightning players, Johnson could slot anywhere from first line to third line on opening night (proof of his versatility), but he’ll be an anchor on the penalty kill from the get-go. He should also see consistent time on the second power play unit.
Getting back to the subject versatility, Johnson provides Cooper with a luxury few teams have: incredible center depth. By slotting Johnson in on the third line, Cooper can have Stamkos, Filppula, and Johnson flying at opposing teams like a wave down the middle. It’s an option that I believe will be too juicy for Cooper to resist for long, especially if players like Jonathan Drouin and Brett Connolly prove they can hang in the top-six.
Of course, third liners don’t score big points, so that would negatively affect Johnson’s numbers. Of all the young Lightning players, Johnson appears to be the one with the least room to improve unless he adds another major element to his game. Therefore he will likely score between 40 and 60 points for the foreseeable future, with a lot of his final numbers depending on whom he gets to play with.
In the upcoming season, I’m predicting a slight regression for Johnson, stats-wise, but his overall game will be as steady as ever.
2014/2015 Prediction
GP: 82 G: 17 A: 28 Pts: 45