Tampa Bay Lightning Fantasy Forecast: Defense

Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Tampa Bay Lightning GM Steve Yzerman set out very matter-of-factly this past off-season to address his team’s weaknesses.  And while the Lightning were much improved defensively last season, in large part thanks to the team’s forwards finally pitching in in their own end, it was clear there was still work to be done.

The writing was on the wall as early as twelve months ago that last season would be Sami Salo’s finale in Tampa Bay.  It was also clear that Eric Brewer, while still a serviceable defenseman, is no longer capable of handling top-four minutes.  And several of the team’s defensemen, while brimming with talent, are under the age of twenty-five, and we all know what they say about defensemen: they take extra time to hit their primes.

This year’s defense looks much improved.  Yzerman’s first acquisition came by surprise, when he landed veteran defenseman Jason Garrison for a second round pick from the Vancouver Canucks.  Then, on July 1, Yzerman made a shrewd signing when he picked up former New York Ranger Anton Stralman, a player who, by most opinions, appears to be just what the doctor ordered for a defense that struggles to gain possession of the puck inside its own blue line.

But the crown jewel of the Tampa Bay Lightning defense remains Victor Hedman.  And last season, all our patience with him finally paid off when Hedman lit the NHL up for 55 points.  While that’s an exceptional total, it might be, in Hedman’s case, just the tip of the iceburg.

The big question, as always, will be: How well will these guys play together?  It’s one thing to turn your defense into one that looks sharp on paper, but that’s meaningless if they don’t get results on the ice.

In that regard, early indications are good.  Hedman and Stralman, both Swedes, appear to have found quick chemistry during training camp.  That alone will give the Lightning 20-plus minutes per night that should be improved over last year, when Hedman was paired with the steady, but obviously declining, Sami Salo.

So now it’s time to take a look at this year’s crop of defenseman case by case and see what’s reasonable to expect.  As always, players are ordered numerically.  We’ll start with #2, Eric Brewer, and you can click the “Next” button all the way to #77, Victor Hedman, and then to a quick look at what’s in the Lightning’s prospect pipeline.

 #5 Jason Garrison

Mar 23, 2014; Vancouver, British Columbia, CAN; Vancouver Canucks defenseman Jason Garrison (5) skates with the puck against the Buffalo Sabres during the third period at Rogers Arena. The Vancouver Canucks won 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Anne-Marie Sorvin-USA TODAY Sports

Age: 29

Height: 6’2

Weight: 220

2013/2014

(Vancouver) GP: 81  G: 7   A: 26  Pts: 33  +/-: -5

Right off the bat, let me say this: Don’t hold last season against Jason Garrison.  Keep the context of his season in mind.  He was playing for the Vancouver Canucks, a team whose operations reminded one more of a circus than an NHL franchise.  Between a star goaltender making no secret of his hopes to be traded (and subsequently not being traded for nearly two years), a rumored-to-be disliked teammate making a secret of his obvious hope to be traded, a GM who either couldn’t make a decent trade or simply didn’t have the power to, and, just for kicks, a batcrap crazy coach who tried to fight his way through the Calgary Flames to get to Bob Hartley…  well, you get the idea.

Let’s just say playing conditions were not pleasant.

Still, purely in terms of numbers, Garrison wound up with an okay season.  No, he didn’t score double digits in goals like he did with the Panthers in 2011/2012, and yes, he wound up on the wrong side of zero in his plus/minus rating.  But Garrison did manage to match his career high 33 points, and still potted seven goals—four of them on the powerplay.

2014/2015 Forecast: If you’re expecting Garrison to return to big-time goal-scoring form, you might be in for a disappointment.  It’s unlikely that he’ll find himself on the first powerplay unit in Tampa Bay, because the first powerplay unit appears to be pretty much set—Jon Cooper like to use just one defenseman on that unit, and Garrison’s probably not winning that spot from Victor Hedman.

Still, Garrison should be active enough on the second unit to finish with the handful of goals he always does.  But he will mostly be relied upon for a steady two-way game, and will perhaps be paired up with Matt Carle in order to reduce the team’s reliance on Radko Gudas.

2014/2015 Prediction

GP: 80   G:  7   A: 22   Pts: 29

 #6 Anton Stralman

Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports

Age: 28

Height: 5’11

Weight: 190

2013/2014

(New York Rangers) GP:  81  G: 1  A: 12   Pts: 13  +/-:  +9

Of all GM Steve Yzerman’s off-season acquisitions, perhaps the most significant was Anton Stralman.  Stralman has been an analytics darling for some time now, but his real coming out party was in last season’s Stanley Cup finals playoff run with the New York Rangers.

It might surprise you to learn that Stralman, who’s known as a reliable and conservative blue liner, actually broke into the league as a more offense-oriented defenseman, and even racked up a very respectable 34 points in the 09/10 season with the Columbus Blue Jackets.  Even so, Stralman quickly realized that he likely didn’t have a future in the NHL in such a role, and over the next few seasons transitioned into a defense-first blue liner.

He was rewarded this past off-season with a five year contract worth $4.5 million per year from the Tampa Bay Lightning, where he’ll join fellow former Rangers Brian Boyle and Ryan Callahan.  He’s expected to begin the season paired with Victor Hedman, with the hope that Stralman’s responsible defensive zone coverage will allow Hedman more opportunities to take advantage of his offensive instincts.

2014/2015 Forecast: While it’s worth noting that Stralman scored a pair of goals in his first pre-season appearance with the Lightning, it’s important to remember that Stralman wasn’t signed to provide offense.  He scored just one goal with the Rangers all of last season.  And in the playoffs, where his stock really soared, he didn’t light the lamp once.

It’s his defense that the Lightning need.  He will essentially be replacing Sami Salo, who, despite being better than expected in his tenure with the Lightning, was probably not suited for the amount of responsibility he received.  Stralman, who’s younger and more mobile, should be a better fit.

That said, Stralman is about to take on the biggest role of his career.  The Lightning are expecting him to slot in as their #2 defenseman, which could mean bigger minutes than Stralman’s ever had to play, and most of those minutes will be tough.  He’s also likely to be a key component of the Lightning’s revamped penalty kill.

The Lightning have a lot riding on how well Stralman can handle the responsibility.  If he shoulders it well, the benefits will sprinkle down throughout the lineup.  It’ll make Hedman’s life easier and might even reduce the team’s reliance on Matt Carle for tough minutes.

Any offense is a bonus, but playing with Hedman should boost his assist totals.

2014/2015 Prediction

GP: 80  G: 2   A: 16   Pts: 18

 #7 Radko Gudas

Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

Age: 24

Height: 6’0

Weight: 201

2013/2014

GP: 73  G: 3  A: 19  Pts: 22  +/-:  +2

There are roller coaster seasons, and then there’s the season Radko Gudas had in 2013/2014.  Technically speaking, the season will go into the books as Gudas’s rookie season, and it started off strong.  The Radko Gudas we have come to know and love roamed the Tampa Bay ice like a homicidal maniac in search of victims up until sometime in December.

That’s when Gudas fell victim to a mid-season concussion, and from that point, his season resembled less a roller coaster ride than a run toward a very tall cliff.  And it went over the side.

Reports came out after the season that Gudas was playing with at least a shoulder injury, and there was a late-season lower body injury to boot.  Whatever the case, the Gudas who finished the season was a far cry from the Gudas who started the season.  He had slowed down considerably and, by playoff time, was being burned easily and often by Montreal forwards.  There were also strange lapses in judgement and/or focus, where Gudas was responsible for terrible giveaways in the defensive zone.  All in all, the season ended in a trainwreck.

2014/2015 Forecast: I’m going to be optimistic.  There are a lot of signs that point to a solid season from Gudas, not the least of which being the Lightning’s acquisitions of Anton Stralman and Jason Garrison.  Garrison is expected to replace Gudas on the right side of the second pairing, which will leave Gudas to play a more sheltered role on the third pairing, perhaps alongside Eric Brewer.

The one drawback of a Gudas/Brewer pairing is mobility.  Brewer isn’t as quick as he used to be and Gudas’s footspeed is average at best.  But the Lightning have other options.  By season’s end, should Gudas prove himself reliable again, he will very likely find himself back on the second pairing with Matt Carle.

In terms of offense, Gudas has some underrated weapons.  The most underrated is his patience with the puck.  He breaks out of the zone better than your average stay-at-home defenseman, and makes a solid first pass.  But Gudas’s main offensive weapon is his heavy, and surprisingly accurate, shot.  And also his willingness to use it.  Gudas put the puck on goal 114 times in 73 games last season, just one shot behind Matt Carle but in nine fewer games, and third most among Lightning defensemen.

With Andrej Sustr and Mark Barberio each fighting for playing time as the Lightning’s projected #7 and #8 defensemen, it’s not unthinkable that Gudas will spend a night or two in the press box.  But, given the fact that teams play the Lightning more cautiously when they don’t have to worry about Gudas, Jon Cooper might be reluctant to pull the trigger on that.

2014/2015 Prediction

GP: 76  G: 2   A: 8   Pts: 10

#8 Mark Barberio

Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Age: 24

Height: 6’1

Weight: 185

2013/2014

GP: 49  G: 5  A: 5  Pts: 10  +/-: +10

Bluntly, this is Mark Barberio’s make-or-break season with the Lightning.  Last season, Barberio was kept on board because he would have to pass through waivers in order to return to the Syracuse Crunch.  His rookie NHL season delivered mixed results.

Offensively, Barberio had impressive stretches where his skating and heads-up play would win him extra responsibility.  Defensively, Barberio’s season was one of stutter steps.  Just when you thought he had it figured out, he’d prove to you that he didn’t.  By year’s end he had effectively been replaced by Mike Kotska and was spending more than his fair share of time in the press box.

Barberio’s main problem is handling bigger, stronger forwards down low, and he often makes futile efforts to outmuscle them.  That said, his issues weren’t as disastrous as some might have you believe.  Barberio finished the year with a very solid +10 rating, and finished above par in both Corsi and Fenwick percentages.

2014/2015 Prediction: It appears that Mark Barberio’s spot on the roster for the upcoming season is not a given.  Part of that is because of Barberio’s inconsistent play, and part of it is because of the emergence of Luke Witkowksi, who has made huge strides over the past year and suddenly looks NHL-ready.  On top of that, Witkowski brings elements to the table (size, physicality, nastiness) that Barberio will never possess.  So the decision could come down to which type of defenseman coach Jon Cooper feels will be the best fit for the lineup.

If Barberio does not make the team, he will have to pass through waivers in order to be returned to Syracuse.  In such an event, it’s likely GM Steve Yzerman will make an attempt to move Barberio for a late round draft pick, because otherwise Barberio will almost certainly be snatched up by another team.

Assuming Barberio sticks with the Lightning, there are reasons to be optimistic.  First and foremost: what we saw last year has kind of become Barberio’s M.O. as a pro hockey player.  It takes him some time to adapt to new levels.  Cooper recently reminisced that when Barberio showed up for camp with the Norfolk Admirals in 2010, the prevailing thought was he would wind up in the ECHL.  At the end of the following season he was named the AHL’s defenseman of the year.

Don’t get your hopes up that Barberio will have that rocket-like progression in the NHL.  But if he figures out a more cerebral and effective approach to defense, it could win him some opportunities from Cooper to show off his considerable offensive gifts.

2014/2015 Prediction 

GP: 62  G: 4   A: 13   Pts: 17

#25 Matt Carle

Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Age: 30

Height: 6’0

Weight: 205

2013/2014

GP: 82   G: 2   A: 29  Pts: 31   +/-:  +11

Last year’s emergence of Victor Hedman put Matt Carle in the backseat a little bit, but Carle is more suited to that role.  He still ate a lot of the tougher minutes for the Lightning, and was solid in that role, although  his play was handicapped late in the season when his partner, Radko Gudas, regressed to the point that he required babysitting.

Carle takes a lot of heat in Lightning land for his pricey contract ($5.5 million), but the truth is, Carle earns his money by taking on tough defensive assignments, which takes a lot of pressure of Hedman.

The addition of Anton Stralman should finally cement Carle into an appropriate slot with the Lightning.  In his two seasons in Tampa Bay, Carle has been everything from a #1 defenseman to a #3, especially in terms of minutes and quality of competition, but now he should be fixed into the #3 spot, and an anchor on the second pairing.

2014/2015 Forecast: It won’t be surprising to see Matt Carle’s minutes reduced slightly.  He might not be so heavily relied upon on the penalty kill, and it’s doubtful he’ll get anything more than scrap power play time on the second unit.

But with a more defined role, and with hopefully a steadier partner, Carle should provide somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 solid minutes per night.  Goals will be hard to come by (Carle’s shot isn’t taking anyone’s breath away) but, even without much power play time, he will likely show up occasionally in the assist column.  He had 23 even strength assists last season.

2014/2015 Prediction

GP: 82  G: 2   A: 25   Pts: 27

 #62 Andrej Sustr

Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports

Age: 23

Height: 6’8

Weight: 216

2013/2014

GP: 43  G: 1  A: 7  Pts: 8  +/-: +3

Aside from Mark Barberio, the one defenseman in danger of losing his spot on the team is Andrej Sustr.  And that has less to do with Sustr’s play than the fact that he’s the one defenseman the Lightning can send to the minors without risking him to waivers (despite Sustr’s shiny new one-way contract, which assures Sustr will make NHL money even if he is demoted).  Because of Luke Witkowksi’s play, it’s an option the Lightning might seriously be considering.

Sustr was a surprise addition to the Lightning’s 2013/2014 squad.  He made the team out  of camp, and, in those early games, was a surprisingly solid defender.  But the game caught up to Sustr and he found himself demoted to Syracuse by mid-season, where he was almost immediately injured and managed to get only 12 AHL games in before being called back up to the Lightning.

Sustr is a towering defenseman, and often he draws comparisons to the NHL’s most famous towering defenseman, Zdeno Chara.  But those comparisons, at this point, couldn’t be further from the truth.  Sustr’s game is based mostly on positioning and reach, and, unlike Chara, there’s very little physicality to it at all.  The Lightning are hoping that will change as he physically matures.  Coming into this season, Sustr is listed very generously at 225 pounds.

2014/2015 Forecast: When it comes to Sustr, just about everything you can think of is a possibility for this coming season.  He might wind up breaking out offensively and putting up 20-plus points.  He might spend the entire season in Syracuse.  He might stick with the Lightning but struggle to win icetime.  He might overtake both Radko Gudas and Jason Garrison and become Matt Carle’s steady partner on the second pairing.

While some of these scenarios are more plausible than others, none of them are entirely unlikely.  The Lightning have options with Sustr, and they’ll consider both what’s best for the team, and also what’s best for him.  To date, Sustr has played just 20 regular season AHL games, so it’s not unthinkable that the Lightning will want him to get a little more seasoning as Syracuse’s #1 defenseman rather than wasting away in Tampa Bay outside of the Lightning’s top six blue liners.

But the door is open for Sustr to win increased responsibility with the Lightning.  He has an advantage over Mark Barberio because of the simple fact that he, Sustr, is a right-handed shot.  And if Radko Gudas can’t get back to his 2013 form, that could allow Sustr some audition time for Eric Brewer’s partner on the third pairing.

2014/2015 Prediction

GP: 60   G: 1   A: 8   Pts:  9

#77 Victor Hedman

Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Age: 23

Height: 6’6

Weight: 229

2013/2014

GP: 75   G: 13   A: 42   Pts: 55   +/-:  +5

After being selected second overall in the 2009 NHL Draft, Victor Hedman finally cashed in on his boatload of promise in 2013/2014.  Heading into the season, there were still plenty of questions surrounding Hedman, and Matt Carle was arguably the team’s #1 defenseman.  But Hedman started answering those questions unequivocally right around the time Steven Stamkos went down with a broken leg, and by December there was little doubt that he was the Lightning’s top blue liner.

Hedman’s 55 points were good for fourth among defenseman, and he went on to finish ninth in Norris Trophy voting.  There were still hiccups in Hedman’s game (i.e. the infamous “-5” he posted in a game against the Boston Bruins), but they were far fewer than in previous seasons, and he dominated more games than he didn’t.

When gauging Hedman’s season, and wondering whether or not he’s capable of repeating it, it’s important to note that he wasn’t getting first unit power play minutes until about mid-November, and he registered half of his 14 power play points in the months of March and April—when the Lightning’s revamped power play, equipped with Stamkos, Valtteri Filppula, Ryan Callahan, and Ondrej Palat, was much improved.

2014/2015 Forecast: A full season of power play duty, as well as a full season with a strong power play unit to work for, should help Hedman maintain enough offense to keep him among the top handful of scoring blue liners in the league.

Having Anton Stralman around isn’t going to hurt either.  Stralman is known for his possession numbers, and possession, when Hedman is on the ice, is a good thing.

So forget about a regression.  All signs point to a slight increase in Hedman’s production.  If he remains healthy.

2014/2015 Prediction

GP: 78  G: 15  A:  45   Pts: 60

The Other Guys

The Lightning’s prospect pool for defensemen, unlike their pool for forwards, is not quite so crowded around the NHL’s door.  While the Lightning appear to have three or four NHL-ready forwards who’ll be nevertheless getting an extra bit of seasoning in Syracuse this year, the biggest waves of the defensemen prospect pool are a little farther off.

That said, one defenseman who’s giving Jon Cooper and Steve Yzerman a very difficult decision for this upcoming season is Luke Witkowski.  Witkowski, 24, a former 160th overall pick, has played well so far in the pre-season—well enough to keep him on a camp roster that has been cut all the way down to eight.  What’s most impressive about that is, coming into camp, it appeared that the Lightning’s blue line was set.  But Witkowski’s strong play, to go along with his meanstreak, has kept him in the mix far past the point where anyone thought he would be.

The two most vulnerable spots on the roster appear to be those of Andrej Sustr and Mark Barberio.  Both of them bring elements that Witkowski does not to the table, but neither of them bring the elements Witkowski specializes in.  Which makes for a tough decision.  Jon Cooper is on record stating that he likes players who are tough to play against, and there are few players more deserving of that description than Witkowski.  (Witkowksi racked up 204 penalty minutes in his first full AHL season.)

Slater Koekkoek will spend this season in Syracuse, and he’s expected to challenge for an NHL spot in 2015/2016.  Don’t be surprised if injuries allow him to get a taste of NHL action this year, however.  Koekkoek has gone under the radar as a prospect since being drafted 10th overall by the Lightning in 2012, mostly due to a succession of shoulder injuries—three of them, to be exact, with each of them requiring surgery.  That would put red flags on anyone.  But all indications point to Koekkoek being healthy to start the year.

Another call up option the Lightning will have this season will be Nikita Nesterov, who made his North American pro debut last year with the Crunch.  Nesterov scored 15 points in 54 games and his performance, on the whole, received mixed reviews.  But this year, with the Crunch having a much more steady blue line (not to mention forwards), Nesterov should have an opportunity to showcase himself.

Even further out are this past year’s draft picks: Anthony DeAngelo, Dominik Masin, Jonathan MacLeod, and Ben Thomas.  The most high profile of the bunch, Anthony DeAngelo, made a good impression in Tampa Bay during training camp before he was returned to the Sarnia Sting of the OHL.  DeAngelo is a scoring machine from the blue line.  Want proof?  Last season he posted 71 points in just 51 OHL games, which led all OHL defenseman by a whopping 10 points, and in 15 fewer games played.

So, to say the least, the future looks bright.