Tampa Bay Lightning: 2014-15 Defense Grades

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We’ve already taken a look at the Goaltenders, now let’s take a look at how the *Tampa Bay Lightning‘s defensemen shaped up in the 2014-15 season.***

As time moves on, and we put a little distance between ourselves and the end of the NHL playoffs, it becomes a little easier to reflect on the 2014/2015 Tampa Bay Lightning season and see it for the magical run that it was. A little easier.

That does not negate the heartbreak of coming so (so, so) close to seeing our boys hoist the… You know what? I’m still not ready to go there. So let me abandon that image before I put it into words.

We are, however, perhaps finally at a point where we should be ready to look back at the year with a critical eye on our boys in Lightning blue, both the ones instrumental in the magic and also the ones who, maybe, just maybe, were part of the reason why the Lightning couldn’t muster up just two more wins for the… … Nope, still not ready for the image. But I am ready, in the following pages, to review the Bolts’ season, player by player. Let’s hope there aren’t too many tears involved.

Let’s start out with a look at the Lightning defense. Players will be listed numerically and graded in accordance to their performance in balance with their pre-season expectations.

Next: First Up: Jason Garrison

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May 12, 2015; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Jason Garrison (5) shoots in game six of the second round of the 2015 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Amalie Arena. The Tampa Bay Lightning defeated Montreal Canadiens 4-1 to win the series 4 games to 2. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports

#5 Jason Garrison

DFC’s Prediction: GP: 80 G: 7 A: 22 Pts: 29

Actual Production: GP: 70 G: 4 A: 26 Pts: 30 +/-: +27

Regular Season: Jason Garrison was acquired as part of Steve Yzerman‘s week long frenzy of moves last year that led up to the 2014 NHL Draft. Yzerman paid a second round pick, and also picked up the entirety of Garrison’s $4.6 million contract, which runs through to the end of the 2017/2018 season. In short, the Vancouver Canucks were dumping salary, and Yzerman picked it up.

And what a pick up it turned out to be. Garrison is a survivor of one of the NHL’s worst playing environments in recent memory, also known as the 2013/2014 Canucks. As soon as he was removed from that situation, he proved he was worth every penny of his contract. And then some.

Production-wise, Garrison had a solid year. He outpaced my pre-season prediction slightly on a per-game basis. But what I don’t think anyone predicted was the stabilizing presence Garrison would provide on the blue line. Wire to wire, he was the Bolts’ most consistent defenseman. His gaffes were few, far between, and minor in nature.

By the time Garrison went down with a shoulder injury down the stretch, he had long since supplanted Matt Carle as Tampa Bay’s #3 defenseman.

It’s hard to find much to criticize about his regular season.

Regular Season Grade: A

Playoffs: In these playoffs, the Tampa Bay Lightning won the respect of the hockey world, not only for their offensive skill, but also for their attention to detail in their own zone. Keep in mind, most hockey fans who don’t watch the Lightning regularly still have last year’s panicky defensive play versus the Montreal Canadiens burnt into their brains (which panic, I maintain, was largely induced by the team’s lack of trust in Anders Lindback, but I digress).

So when these same hockey fans got a load of the 2015 Lightning, they came away impressed. And a lot of that had to do with the Lightning’s second pairing, which prominently featured Jason Garrison. Unfortunately, it wasn’t all peaches and cream.

Later on in the post-season, when the Bolts came up against faster teams, Garrison and his new partner, Braydon Coburn, struggled at times. Was he as steady in the playoffs as he was in the regular season? No. But Garrison, by and large, had a solid playoff performance, and even wound up potting a couple of goals. It’s hard to complain about that from a second pairing guy.

Playoffs Grade: B

Looking Forward: Garrison is about as perfect as a fit gets for the Lightning’s second pairing. He’s a left-handed defenseman who can play the right side occasionally and he’s steady defensively while making a solid contribution to the team’s offense. What’s more, having Garrison around allows Jon Cooper to ease promising young lefties like Nikita Nesterov and Slater Koekkoek into the lineup in ways that will be best for their development, rather than simply because the team needs them.

Next: Next Up: Anton Stralman

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Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

#6 Anton Stralman

DFC’s Prediction: GP: 80 G: 2 A: 16 Pts: 18

Actual Production: GP: 82 G: 9 A: 30 Pts: 39 +/-: +22

Regular Season: Perhaps Steve Yzerman‘s highest profile off-season signing was that of Anton Stralman, formerly of the New York Rangers. Stralman signed on to be the defensively responsible partner of Victor Hedman, and at a very cap friendly number: $4.5 million. And wow, did the Lightning get some bang for that buck.

We all knew Stralman was going to provide solid defense. Stralman’s advanced stats dominance was printed right there on his name tag. But what’s little known about Stralman these days is he actually entered the league as an offense oriented defenseman. And this year we saw the return of that scoring touch, and without neglect to his defensive responsibilities.

Stralman set career highs in every major category this year. His nine goals are more than he had scored in the previous four years combined. What happened, in short, was this: Stralman’s caveman stats finally caught up with his advanced stats.

There were, however, a few blips on the negative radar. Stralman went through a stretch or two where his focus seemed to wane. He seemed to be on the wrong end of a disproportionate number of own goals this year, and there were some ugly own zone gaffes, particularly on the power play. But those minor, and fairly infrequent, flaws are all that separate Stralman from an elite two-way defenseman. So it’s fairly easy to shrug them off.

Regular Season Grade: A

Playoffs: If Stralman was great in the regular season, he was fantastic in the playoffs. He managed a goal and nine points in Tampa Bay’s 26 games, while also looking, dare I say it, not entirely dissimilar to Nick Lidstrom at times in his own end.

But above all that, perhaps what makes Stralman such a valuable member to the Lightning right now, and this is a thing that was particularly highlighted in these playoffs, is how brightly Victor Hedman shines when partnered with Stralman.

Hedman is undoubtedly an all-world talent, but we saw him struggle through large chunks of the regular season when injuries forced him to play alongside lesser talents. Those struggles rarely existed when Hedman played with Stralman. Think of it like this: Stralman is the phonebooth that turns Hedman’s Clark Kent into Superman. And that, in and of itself, is a special talent to have.

Jon Cooper has said it a hundred times: Anton Stralman may never win a Norris trophy, but his partner probably will. I think that sums up Stralman’s game nicely.

Playoffs Grade: A+

Looking Forward: One thing that’s interesting to note is that at around the time Stralman entered the New York Rangers organization, he completely reshaped his game, becoming a defense-first defenseman under coach John Tortorella. This could be significant, moving forward, because Stralman, in essence, reset his development. And he’s still just twenty-eight years old. So there’s a lot of evidence to suggest he is not yet a finished project. Which means—lucky us—what we saw this year might be just the tip of the ice burg.

Next: Next Up: Mark Barberio

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Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

#8 Mark Barberio

DFC’s Prediction: GP: 62 G: 4 A: 13 Pts: 17

Actual Production: GP: 52 G: 1 A: 7 Pts: 8 +/-: -4

Regular Season: Mark Barberio showed plenty of improvement in his sophomore NHL season, but it still wasn’t enough to make him a regular with the Lightning. Part of the problem was, with the acquisition of Jason Garrison, the Bolts became stacked on the left side. Matt Carle, who makes $5.5 million per year, is the Lightning’s third pairing lefty—not exactly an easy lineup to crack.

But the problem is deeper than that. While Barberio has progressed, he hasn’t necessarily progressed as speedily as some of the prospects coming up behind him—namely: Nikita Nesterov and Slater Koekkoek.

By the regular season’s end, it looked like Nesterov, specifically, had overtaken Barberio on the depth chart. Or, at the very least, it looked like he soon would. Which seems to have left Barberio in hockey’s proverbial no man’s land. He’s too good for the AHL, but is also being beaten out of his job as an extra defenseman for the Bolts.

What’s interesting about Barberio is he has the skillset of an offense-first defenseman, but the majority of his strides since coming into the league have been defensively. He was night-and-day improved over last year, but we’ve yet to see Barberio’s considerable offensive instincts result in actual meat-and-potatoes production.

Even with his defensive strides, Barberio will never be such a defensive stalwart that he won’t need to contribute offensively; especially when the in-house competition for a spot in the lineup is so heated.

Regular Season Grade: B-

Playoffs: By playoff time, it was clear that Mark Barberio had been jumped on the depth chart by Nikita Nesterov. Jon Cooper may never come out and say that, but actions speak louder than words: Nesterov, also a leftie, played 17 games while Barberio dressed for just one.

Playoffs Grade: Incomplete

Looking Forward: The writing appears to be on the wall for Barberio. I, for one, would be surprised if he returns to the Lightning next year. In front of him on the left side of the depth chart there’s Victor Hedman, Jason Garrison, and Matt Carle. Behind him, there’s Nikita Nesterov and Slater Koekkoek, among others.

The only way it seems viable for the Lightning to keep Barberio around is if they move Matt Carle. And even in the event that that happens, I wouldn’t bet on Barberio staying. Which, when you think about it, might be a blessing in disguise for Barberio himself. In another organization, with a spot ready and waiting for him, he might finally be able to settle into the NHL without constantly thinking about losing his job, and, in such a situation, he might finally see his scoring touch ignite.

Note: Since the time of this writing, it has indeed been announced that Mark Barberio will not be returning to the Tampa Bay Lightning next season.

Next: Next Up: Matt Carle

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Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

#25 Matt Carle

DFC’s Prediction: GP: 82 G: 2 A: 25 Pts: 27

Actual Production: GP: 59 G: 4 A: 14 Pts: 18 +/-: +12

Regular Season: It was an up and down year for Matt Carle. Most of the low moments came when he was playing on his off-side. The high moments came when you forgot he was there, because he was steadily doing his job in the background.

Early in the year it became clear that Carle had been overtaken on the depth chart by Jason Garrison, effectively making Carle the Lightning’s #4 defenseman. But then, at the trade deadline, when the Lightning acquired Braydon Coburn, Carle slid down again to the #5 slot.

But it’s worth noting that Jon Cooper doesn’t run his defense like most coaches. There will likely never be, for instance, a 28-minute-per-night guy on a Cooper team. Cooper likes to keep icetime somewhat flattened across the board, so even as a third pairing defenseman, Carle still averaged more than 20 minutes of icetime per night.

When Carle was injured toward the end of the season, the Lightning realized that he remains an important part of the team (despite the occasional, and glaring, gaffes). When the injuries on the blue line began really piling up, Lightning management and fans alike were counting down the days until Carle returned.

Offensively, it was expected that Carle’s numbers would take a bit of a step back because he no longer gets any power play time whatsoever. Still, he managed four goals, which is actually two more than he put up last year, despite appearing in just 59 games.

Regular Season Grade: C+

Playoffs: Unfortunately, come playoff time, the “bad” Matt Carle showed up far, far more often than the “good” Matt Carle. It pains me to say this, but by the Eastern Conference Finals, it was clear that Andrej Sustr, not exactly a great defenseman in his own right, was carrying Carle on the third pairing.

Starting perhaps as early as the opening round, opposing teams began trying to take advantage of Carle and Sustr being on the ice, because the tandem was such a huge, huge, drop off defensively from the Lightning’s top-four.

And when opposing teams are trying to match their best players against your highest paid defenseman, it’s a problem.

Expectations were, and are, higher than this.

Playoffs Grade: F

Looking Forward: Things are beginning to get tricky on the Lightning blue line, particularly on the left side. Here’s why: Matt Carle is the Lightning’s highest paid defenseman. And, as stated above, he currently fills their #5 slot. What’s more, with the emergence of Nikita Nesterov and the potential of Slater Koekkoek, even that #5 slot might not be safe for long.

The question becomes how long will it be before the difference between Carle and one of those younger lefties isn’t enough to justify the money that’s being allocated to him? Especially when the team has Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman coming up for contracts in consecutive years. If the playoffs were any indication, Nesterov might be an improvement over Carle already.

What I’m saying is I’m not sure if Carle will return to the Lightning next year. At the moment he appears somewhat safe, but the Lightning might want to move him along, freeing up both dollars and a roster spot. That said, Carle does have a no move clause in his contract, so trading him might be easier said than done.

Next: Next Up: Luke Witkowski

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Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

#53 Luke Witkowski

DFC’s Prediction: N/A

Actual Production: GP: 16 G: 0 A: 0 Pts: 0 +/-: 0

Regular Season: After making a push for the final Lightning roster spot in training camp, Luke Witkowski was sent back to Syracuse in favor of Andrej Sustr, but found himself called up multiple times throughout the year to fill-in on the oft decimated Lightning blue line. And he looked good doing it.

Sure, there were times where Witkowski made mistakes. And there was a time or two when his below average footspeed cost him. But on the whole, he provided a much needed steady presence to the Lightning blue line whenever called upon. Predictability, for a defenseman, isn’t always a bad thing. I would argue Witkowski made a better partner for Victor Hedman than Andrej Sustr, because Hedman always knew Witkowski was covering for him.

Witkowski also engaged physically when called upon. He threw hits, cleared the crease, and even dropped the gloves (most notably in a two-fer night with Brandon Prust of the Montreal Canadiens) when need be.

He turned himself into a real asset.

Regular Season Grade: Incomplete

Looking Forward: Witkowski is an NHL talent. Unfortunately, his road to the NHL isn’t about to get any easier with the Lightning organization. Playing the right side, he’ll need to outplay Sustr for a regular spot in the lineup—some, this writer included, would argue he already has—but we’ve seen Jon Cooper put faith in Sustr time and time again.

Next: Next Up: Braydon Coburn

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#55 Braydon Coburn

DFC’s Prediction: N/A

Actual Production: GP: 4 G: 0 A: 2 Pts: 2 +/-: +3

Playoffs: We didn’t get to see much of Braydon Coburn in the regular season because, shortly after he was acquired from the Philadelphia Flyers, he suffered an injury that prevented him from playing in all but four games for the Bolts.

Come playoff time, there was a lot of pressure on Coburn to fit in immediately. He responded well. He found a place on the second pairing with Jason Garrison and, particularly in the early rounds, was exactly the solid, no nonsense defender the Lightning had bargained for when dealing the ultra popular Radko Gudas (plus draft picks) to the Philadelphia Flyers.

Coburn, despite tremendous skating ability for a large man, will never be mistaken for a flashy player. Luckily, that’s not what the Lightning need. He provides a quick stick along the boards and a bit of toughness in front of the crease and simply does the little things that matter. While a lot of his possession numbers didn’t turn out great, he was a definite improvement to the Lightning’s blue line.

The deeper the playoffs went, and as the competition became tougher, there were definitely some struggles for Coburn. But one must keep in mind, while assessing his performance, that these were his first games with a new team, and there was no time for a thorough initiation.

Playoffs Grade: B

Looking Forward: Coburn is under contract for the upcoming season, and within twenty or thirty games we’ll have a pretty good idea how well Coburn fits. My own belief is he’ll fit very well.

Whether or not Coburn is extended beyond this season, however, depends on a lot more variables than simply his own play. While it’s unlikely that Andrej Sustr will make a serious challenge for the #4 slot on the Lightning blue line, and perhaps it’s even less likely that Anthony DeAngelo will be ready for that role by the beginning of 2016/2017, the Lightning might have to cut ties with Coburn simply to free up cap-space for the incoming Steven Stamkos contract. (And then, the following year, Victor Hedman will be hitting it rich.)

So it’s unlikely the Bolts will be able to keep the exact team they have now. Unless Coburn proves himself indispensable next season, he could easily be a guy with whom the Lightning are forced to part ways.

For next season, however, I would expect Coburn to provide a stabilizing presence to the Lightning’s defense. As long as Ben Bishop plays well, there’s no reason why the Lightning’s goals against won’t improve, and Coburn will have a big hand in that.

Next: Next Up: Andrej Sustr

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Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

#62 Andrej Sustr

DFC’s Prediction: GP: 60 G: 1 A: 8 Pts: 9

Actual Production: GP: 72 G: 0 A: 13 Pts: 13 +/-: +10

Regular Season: Andrej Sustr‘s season was pretty revealing, and not in all good ways. While management seems to have unwavering faith that Sustr will eventually develop into a solid top-4 defenseman, I have to be honest with you: I’m not seeing it.

And that opinion has nothing to do with Sustr’s many (many) mental errors this season. Those are to be expected from a young defenseman. My objection about Sustr’s potential is more about what will be left when he does—and yes, he will—clean those mistakes up.

Sustr’s raw skillset, to me, leaves a lot to be desired. He’s a below average skater (despite decent speed), possesses a below average shot, is not at all physical, and the list goes on and on. Some of these things will improve, but, in general, below average skaters don’t become above average skaters at age 25. Nor do below average shooters figure out a way to add 10 mph to their shots. His skillset is his skillset, and for my money, it’s not the skillset of a top-4 defenseman.

That’s not to say Sustr can’t be an effective bottom pairing guy. He certainly can be, and he was exactly that in spurts this year. But there were also times this year where it seemed like he was not at all a better option than Luke Witkowski.

I think there might be a misguided hope in Lightning land that Sustr is simply a late bloomer. It’s easy to point to the similarly gigantic Zdeno Chara, the quintessential late bloomer, and say Chara didn’t become Chara until much later in his career. And that’s true.

But the nucleus of that player—that hulking, nasty, overpowering beast of a player—was indeed always there. And it was always apparent. For Chara, it was a matter of learning how to put his unique skillset to use. And that took some time. But Sustr, despite being 6’8, beyond even his physical abilities, has none of those instincts. In order for him to put that 6’8 frame to use, he would have to completely revamp his game.

Regular Season Grade: D

Playoffs: There were points in these playoffs where Sustr looked better than he had in the regular season. There were also points where he looked worse. You have to give him some benefit of the doubt because his partner, Matt Carle, played some of his worst hockey of the year—and that’s saying something.

Sustr has a bad habit of poorly timed pinches, which was exposed in the later rounds of the playoffs. Many of his errors, in fact, were due to poor decisions, which, as said above, should improve in time. Unfortunately, Sustr’s decision-making is only one issue in his game right now.

Playoffs Grade: D

Looking Forward: The Lightning spent most of the season looking for a right-side defenseman, but when they acquired that defenseman by dealing another right-side defenseman, Radko Gudas, it appeared to secure Sustr’s spot on the team for the team being. (Note: Since the time of this writing, Sustr has resigned with the Lightning for two more years.)

Despite my own personal doubts about Sustr’s potential, I would be surprised if the Lightning don’t continue to show faith in him. This might even come at the expense of younger, more talented, right-handed defensemen. For a time. And maybe Sustr will prove me wrong and blossom into the defenseman the Lightning are hoping for. But I’m not optimistic.

Next: Next Up: Victor Hedman

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Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

#77 Victor Hedman

DFC’s Prediction: GP: 78 G: 15 A: 45 Pts: 60

Actual Production: GP: 59 G: 10 A: 28 Pts: 38 +/-: +12

Regular Season: It was a strange and winding road this regular season for the Tampa Bay Lightning‘s undisputed #1 defenseman. Victor Hedman came roaring out of the gate, scoring up a storm and defending well before suffering a hand injury that sidelined him for about a quarter of the season.

We Lightning fans have become somewhat conditioned, from past experiences, to expect Hedman to return from any sort of injury like a superhuman version of himself. Unfortunately, the version of Hedman that returned this time showed obvious signs of rust, made more than his share of questionable decisions, and looked a lot like pre-2014 Hedman.

Hedman did get his game back together. And he unquestionably played his best hockey when paired with Anton Stralman. But blue line injuries haunted the Lightning throughout the year, and that was a pairing we all too rarely saw. Mostly, Jon Cooper was forced to pair his experienced defensemen with his inexperienced defensemen, so Hedman’s often found himself partnered with Andrej Sustr and later Luke Witkowski.

Despite plenty of bumps in the road, Hedman still turned in a satisfactory, if disappointing, season. It wasn’t the showcase of talent that was his 2013/2014 breakout year, but it was enough to get by, and enough to keep us optimistic about his future.

Regular Season Grade: C+

Playoffs: …The aforementioned future, as it turned out, was right around the corner. To put it simply, Victor Hedman played the best hockey of his life in these playoffs. Whatever woes he had during the regular season are a distant memory at the time of this writing, because by the time the Stanley Cup final rolled around, the Tampa Bay Lightning had two solid Conn Smyth candidates. One was Tyler Johnson, the other was Hedman.

Hedman spent most of the post-season paired with Anton Stralman, and wow, did that pairing pay dividends. Stralman’s defensive poise and virtual mistake-free hockey allowed Hedman to use his legs and join the rush—often leading it—and there were many times when Hedman looked like the Lightning’s most dangerous offensive player. Not to mention he was spectacular in his own end.

If Hedman can maintain his most recent level of play going into next season, the Lightning will be that much more dangerous. This is what elite looks like.

Playoffs Grade: A+

Looking Forward: Outside of prospects, Hedman remains the Lightning’s greatest source of potential along the blue line. While we’ve seen glimpses of what Hedman is capable of, it’s safe to say we’ve yet to see him consistently at his best for a full calendar year. And that’s normal for a defenseman his age. It’s easy to forget the guy is still just 24 years old. Scarily enough, we could still be years away from his prime.

Next: Next Up: Nikita Nesterov

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Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

#89 Nikita Nesterov

DFC’s Prediction: N/A

Actual Production: GP: 27 G: 2 A: 5 Pts: 7 +/-: +6

Regular Season: Perhaps this season’s most pleasant surprise was the rise of Nikita Nesterov. Nesterov, who did not perform well last year in Syracuse, was believed by many to be a prospect trending in the wrong direction. But wow, did that ever change this year.

It started in Syracuse. Nesterov quickly found himself the Crunch’s 1A option on the blue line. By the time he was called up, he was closing in on last year’s point totals in twenty fewer games, while also being much more reliable defensively.

Things went from good to better in Tampa Bay. Nesterov immediately showed NHL-level skills, but far more importantly, he also displayed very uncommon poise for a player in the infancy of his NHL career. He made mistakes, sure—all rookies make mistakes—but the mistakes seemed to be out of mind the moment they were out of sight, which led to very few, if any, compound errors or panic plays.

And Nesterov was rewarded by Jon Cooper toward the end of the season with a spot on the Lightning’s second power play unit. Another surprise: he made a big difference. Nesterov has that all-important ability to get pucks through traffic and on net. Even better: he doesn’t hesitate to shoot.

Were there bad stretches? Sure. There were nights he was scratched and deserved to be scratched. But for a guy who was a long-shot to play for the Lightning this year, it’s hard not to consider his twenty-seven games a smashing success. And player grades are all relative expectations.
Regular Season Grade: A

Playoffs: Because Nesterov was so impressive during the regular season, expectations were raised a little bit for the playoffs. In the early going, Nesterov met those expectations, particularly with his ability to get shots through to the net, which in turn made him, once again, a surprise addition to the Lightning’s power play.

But holes in Nesterov’s game did emerge as the playoffs went on. And with time, his high risk plays proved a little too risky for Jon Cooper, who began limiting Nesterov’s ice time before ultimately making him a healthy scratch as often as not.

In all, there were plenty of good moments and a few bad moments, but, when you consider where he started the year, it’s incredible that Nesterov fought his way so high up the organization’s depth chart that he was dressed for playoff games. That, in and of itself, is a huge accomplishment.

Playoffs Grade: B

Looking Forward: Nesterov’s surprise emergence as a legit and cost-effective option for the third pairing leaves Steve Yzerman and crew some decisions to make in the coming off-season. Matt Carle, at the moment, is the highest paid defenseman on the team, yet when everybody’s healthy, Matt Carle fills just the third pairing slot on the left side. Could Nesterov be a permanent replacement for Carle?

Or perhaps the Lightning will decide to hold off on that decision for a year.

Next: Steve Yzerman Wins General Manager of the Year

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We’ve already taken a look at the Goaltenders, now let’s take a look at how the Tampa Bay Lightning‘s defensemen shaped up in the 2014-15 season.

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#5 Jason Garrison

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#6 Anton Stralman

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#8 Mark Barberio

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#25 Matt Carle

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#53 Luke Witkowski

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#55 Braydon Coburn

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#62 Andrej Sustr

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#77 Victor Hedman

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#89 Nikita Nesterov

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We’ve already taken a look at the Goaltenders, now let’s take a look at how the *Tampa Bay Lightning‘s defensemen shaped up in the 2014-15 season.***