With Las Vegas being named the location of the NHL’s newest expansion team, an expansion draft in 2017 could be catastrophic for the Tampa Bay Lightning.
The Tampa Bay Lightning have two options when approaching an expansion draft. They can either protect eight skaters total, or seven forwards and three defensemen. It seems the best option for the Bolts is to protect seven forwards and three defensemen. This strategy allows them to protect ten skaters total and protect more of their talented offense while still providing for decent coverage of their defenders.
Three is just about the maximum number of defenders that could be reasonably protected either way as if the eight skater option is chosen and four defenders are covered then only four forwards would be able to be protected which would put too much of the Lightning’s core scorers and play makers on the market.
So, if only three defenders can be protected by the Bolts who would it be? Naturally, and rightly so, the first defender that comes to mind is Victor Hedman. Hedman has proved his value to the Bolts as their best blueliner time and time again.
This was especially evident in the playoffs this year in which he established himself as not only one of the best defenders in the league but also as a scoring threat. Victor Hedman is all but completely guaranteed to be protected as things currently stand.
Next on the list is Anton Stralman. Stralman and Hedman proved to be a powerful duo as the Bolt’s top defensive pair. The offsetting right-hand and left-hand shots of the two made this line combination an offensive threat from wherever they are in the zone.
Drafted in the 7th round by the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2005, Stralman has greatly improved as a player and with his 11 years of experience, brings experience and leadership to a young team.
Both Victor Hedman and Anton Stralman were also a part of the Lightning’s very successful penalty kill that came up especially large in last season’s playoff run. If I was managing the Lightning, Anton Stralman would be the second defender I made sure would stay in my sweater.
The next spot is rather up in the air and will depend on how the remaining defenders play. As it stands now, this last remaining spot will most likely go to either Jason Garrison or Andrej Sustr. Each player has their advantages but in the end, I believe the last remaining spot will go to Andrej Sustr.
Garrison brings a leadership quality to the team and is more of an anchor player. He serves as a base for the rest of the Lightning’s team to build off of but doesn’t produce very much himself. With a meek 11 points in 72 games played this season, Garrison doesn’t have much to show for on offense.
On the other hand, he served as a very solid defender and a figure for the team to almost rally behind. With 88 hits on the season and blocking a whopping 105 shots, Garrison proved his worth on the defensive side of the ice. Sustr was more productive on offense than Garrison with 21 points on the season including 17 assists. Sustr also served the Bolts well on the defensive end of the ice, but perhaps less so than Garrison.
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Registering only 29 hits on the season and blocking only 66 shots, it is evident that Sustr doesn’t play the same physical, self-sacrificial brand of hockey Garrison does. So what puts Sustr above Garrison?
The answer: Age and pay. Jason Garrison makes 3 million per season and will become an Unrestricted Free Agent in 2018. Andrej Sustr, on the other hand, makes only 1.3 million per season, but will become a Restricted Free Agent in 2017.
That means Sustr will need a new contract but unless he has a breakout season this year, I don’t expect his new contract to exceed $3 million per season. Then there is the age factor. Garrison is 31 years old currently. He will likely have at most 6 or 7 seasons in the NHL left before he retires.
On the other hand, Sustr is only 25 and can have anywhere from 8 to 12 seasons left. These numbers, of course, hinge on more than a few factors but at age 25, Sustr is entering his prime. These next few seasons are when he will be most productive.
On the other side, Garrison will begin to slow down in the coming seasons. This is nothing against Jason Garrison, of course, this is just how the numbers fall. Both players are valuable to the Lightning and serve their own roles but in the end, I believe it will be Andrej Sustr that will get the final defensive protection.
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Next week, I’ll break down the expansion draft’s impact on the Tampa Bay Lightning’s forwards. Throughout this series, I encourage you to leave your opinions in the comments below and let me and other Lightning fans know what you think about the situation.