Following last night’s 4-0 loss to the Boston Bruins, there is a very specific (and improbable) set of events that must happen for the Tampa Bay Lightning to make the playoffs this year.
The Tampa Bay Lightning dropped a very important two points in their last game against Boston Bruins. In the process, the Bruins clinched a playoff spot, which leaves only two more playoff spots available in the Eastern Conference.
Tonight, the Lightning will play the Toronto Maple Leafs in what is absolutely a do or die game. This game is the first step of the Lightning’s drawn out and convoluted path to the playoffs. If the Lightning loses tomorrow’s game, the Toronto Maple Leafs will clinch a playoff berth leaving just one more spot up for grabs.
This last spot is currently held by the Ottawa Senators. Currently, the Senators are one point ahead of the Toronto Maple Leafs. This makes the Maple Leafs the Wild Card while the Senators are the second seed in the Atlantic Division.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Both the Tampa Bay Lightning and the New York Islanders are the tied at 88 points, which leaves them as the first teams out of the playoffs. Ottawa’s one extra point makes all the difference because their 94 points allow them to clinch a playoff berth by simply going to overtime with one of their opponents.
Even if the Islanders or Lightning win all of their remaining games, they will only be able to get up to 94 points, Even if the Senators somehow manage to drop the rest of their remaining games, the best the two bubble teams can do is tie them, in which case tie breaking procedure will be used.
If the Lightning is somehow going to make a miracle run, they will not only need to win the rest of their games, but they will need Toronto to choke on a massive scale. If Toronto wins a game in any fashion, they’ve clinched their spot. A loss in overtime or a shootout will grant them only one point, which will pull them even with the Ottawa Senators.
A total skid on the part of the Toronto Maple leafs and a win streak by the Lightning will result in the Lightning earning themselves 94 points to the Toronto Maple Leafs 93. This will win them the final spot outright, and guarantee a playoff appearance.
This seems incredibly unlikely, however, it isn’t entirely impossible. If the Lightning can beat the Maple Leaf’s tomorrow, they start a chain reaction that could lead to a playoff spot. Tonight’s game is undoubtedly the easiest remaining game for the Maple Leafs.
After the Lightning, they will face the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Columbus Blue Jackets in that order. Both of these teams have already clinched their playoff spots and are ranked 2nd and 4th in the entire league respectively.
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It isn’t crazy to imagine Toronto losing both of these games. The Penguins and the Blue Jackets have been some of the hottest teams in the NHL throughout the entire season. Both teams will present a hearty challenge for the Maple Leafs to overcome.
On the other side of the board, the Lightning will be playing the Montreal Canadiens and the Buffalo Sabres after they face Toronto. If the Bolts can beat Montreal, they should be able to off the Sabres easily.
Montreal has also clinched their playoff spot already as well as the entire Atlantic Division. It’ll be a challenge for the Bolts for sure, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Canadiens decided to rest an injury prone Carey Price before their guaranteed playoff run.
As a recap, the Lightning needs to win all of their remaining three games, while the Maple Leafs, and preferably Senators too, can’t win any. Improbable? Absolutely. Impossible? Not at all.
This entire miracle in the making hinges on whether or not the Lightning can take care walk away from tonight’s game against the Maple Leafs with two points. If they do, the dream lives on. If they don’t, the Lightning players will be relegated to the golf course earlier than Bolts fans would like.