The opportunity for the Tampa Bay Lightning to alter their roster via trade is soon to be closed as we approach the trade deadline on Monday at 3PM EST. GM Julien BriseBois’ trade deadline activity the previous two seasons can be credited with helping the Lightning finally win the Stanley Cup with this core, but all three major acquisitions – Blake Coleman, Barclay Goodrow, and David Savard – are no longer on the team. So, do the Lightning need to add this season, who do they add, and can they add anyone with their salary cap situation?
Salary cap situation
The salary cap situation is the easiest to answer since the Lightning have $0 in cap space. The Lightning’s upper salary cap limit was set on opening night when Brent Seabrook was placed on LTIR, and currently all members of the opening night roster are healthy and active. So, any trade acquisition would require an equal or greater amount of salary cap moved out to accommodate the trade.
Some names to consider for clearing cap space include Boris Katchouk, Taylor Raddysh, and Cal Foote. Katchouk seems to be the most likely candidate to be traded or waived to clear cap space as he has been the least used of the three this season.
Raddysh and Foote have looked promising at times this season, but there may be questions pertaining to if they can contribute to a Stanley Cup run this season. If an option presents itself to improve the team this year, trading one could give the team the best odds of winning while they remain in win-now mode.
Trading or waiving Katchouk or Raddysh would afford the Lightning enough cap space to acquire any play with a cap hit of $3,033,332, or less, with double salary retention.
Tampa Bay Lightning’s roster needs
Looking at the Lightning roster now, it is capable of competing for the Stanley Cup as is. They only sit 4 points back from the Florida Panthers for first in the division and 7 points back from the Colorado Avalanche for first in the league, with at least game in-hand over Colorado.
The top-six forward group is more-or-less the same as the previous two seasons. The Maroon-Bellemare-Perry line has outscored opponents and provided consistent defensive prowess. And the Joseph-Colton-Raddysh line has held their own.
On the defensive side, the situation is more-or-less status quo. The left side defense remains one of the deepest in the league with Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh, and Mikhail Sergachev. And the right side consists of Erik Cernak, Jan Rutta, and Zach Bogosian – all three having been major contributors in previous Stanley Cup runs. Additionally, Cal Foote looks like he may be ready to see playoff action this season.
If we are being honest, there are no absolute needs for this team to pursue. Any trade would be for a player that upgrades the job someone already in the lineup is doing a satisfactory job of. The biggest want would have to be a hard to play against forward that brings a scoring touch at even strength and experience to the penalty kill unit.
The Lightning are currently 16th in the league for PK% at 80.0%. They still have the Alex Killorn-Anthony Cirelli pairing, but lost three major penalty kill pieces in Goodrow, Coleman, and Gourde over the offseason. Pierre-Édouard Bellemare and Mathieu Joseph have filled in nicely, but ideally another reliable penalty killing forward would be preferable to have.
On defense, the addition of Zach Bogosian to a multi-year contract would ideally fill the Savard need the Lightning plugged last season at the deadline, but there could still be a need for reinforcement or improvement. Both Bogosian and Cernak have dealt with multiple injuries this season and played only roughly half of all possible games to this point. If there are lingering concerns about the long-term durability of either, a defensive addition could be warranted.
Trade assets the Tampa Bay Lightning possess
Trade assets of notable value:
- 2022 1st
- 2023 1st
- 2023 3rd
- 2023 4th
- Jack Thompson (best defense prospect)
- Jack Finley (best forward prospect)
- Cal Foote & Taylor Raddysh (best roster players potentially available)
When you look at what the Lightning have to bargain with, their two first-round picks immediately stand out as their best assets. A potentially interesting twist this year is that teams selling players are reportedly looking for 2023 draft picks over 2022 picks since the 2023 draft is ‘perceived as being “deeper” than 2022,’ according to Frank Seravalli. This could favor the Lightning in trades as they still have their full array of 2023 draft picks, minus their second rounder.
Looking at prospects, this is not 2020 when they had Nolan Foote as a prospect of value. Their most recent first round draftee still in the organization is Cal Foote (2017) and none of their later picks have turned into gems as of yet. Jack Thompson and Jack Finley still carry value, but they will not move the needle to the same degree other team’s top prospects might if we get into a bidding war over a player.
While I think it is unlikely the Lightning trade Foote or Raddysh, they are the most valuable roster players the Lightning have that they could trade if a roster player of value is needed to be included in a trade.
For trade board rankings see: The Athletic, Daily Faceoff, TSN
Player statistics sourced from: Hockey Reference, Natural Stat Trick
UFAs After Season
Tyler Motte – LW/RW, Vancouver Canucks
Age: 27
Stats: 7 Goals | 8 Assists | +5 | 14:15 TOI/G
Contract: 2022 UFA, $1,225,000
Misc. Stats: 49 Blocked Shots | 80 Hits | 90:16 PK TOI
Trade board rankings:
- The Athletic: 23
- Daily Faceoff: 16
- TSN: 19
Tyler Motte is a fast-skating aggressive forechecker that excels with the puck on his stick around the front of the net. He is willing to throw the body and use it to block shots and is a more than capable penalty killer that would bolster the Lightning’s depth.
While Motte does not have great Corsi metrics, even among teammates, he has been effective at limiting dangerous attempts by opposing teams this season. He would be a natural fit in the bottom-six of the Lightning’s lineup.
Here Motte battles for the puck behind the net before working it out to Luke Schenn for a shot that is redirected into the net.
TIP IN FRONT! pic.twitter.com/P2VCZbbDHW
— Vancouver Canucks (@Canucks) March 16, 2022
Remember this?
Andrew Copp – C/LW, Winnipeg Jets
Age: 27
Stats: 13 Goals | 19 Assists | Even | 19:57 TOI/G
Contract: 2022 UFA, $3,640,000
Misc. Stats: 35 Blocked Shots | 34 Hits | 138:34 PK TOI
Trade board rankings:
- The Athletic: NR
- Daily Faceoff: 18
- TSN: 14
Andrew Copp could be the best overall player listed here as he has the experience and ability that would instantly elevate the Lightning’s roster. He plays in the top-six of the Jets’ lineup and is a minute crunching body on the penalty kill.
Even though Winnipeg remains in the hunt for a playoff spot, and Copp is young enough to be an important player going forward, Winnipeg and Copp have had trouble seeing eye-to-eye on contract value. Just last offseason Copp filed for salary arbitration, but eventually settled on a one-year deal. Rather than losing Copp for nothing as a UFA this offseason, the Jets may opt to trade him.
Should the Bolts pursue Copp, his salary cap hit this season is beyond the Lightning’s range of moving one of Katchouk or Raddysh, even if they were to get him on double salary retention. Additionally, Copp’s health is an ongoing concern as he has not played since taking a hit to the head on the 13th.
Copp’s condition is unknown as of now, but if he suffered a concussion, it would be his second of the season. The Lightning should probably steer clear to avoid a similar situation to that the Toronto Maple Leafs faced with Nick Foligno after last season’s trade deadline.
Justin Braun – RD, Philadelphia Flyers
Age: 35
Stats: 5 Goals | 10 Assists | +3 | 20:05 TOI/G
Contract: 2022 UFA, $1,800,000
Misc. Stats: 105 Blocked Shots | 78 Hits | 139:30 PK TOI
Trade board rankings:
- The Athletic: 18
- Daily Faceoff: 35
- TSN: 8
Justin Braun is a strong experienced right-handed defenseman capable of playing big minutes and would immediately bolster the Lightning’s right-side defense. Even at the ripe age of 35 he’s still one of Philly’s most reliable defenders. He is most often paired with Ivan Provorov on the Flyers but would make a logical fit with any of the Lightning’s left-side defenders.
Braun is still a capable penalty killer, as he’s the second most used defenseman by Philadelphia and, is a shot blocking machine with 105 blocked shots on the season. That is more blocked shots than any other defenseman listed here and on par with the Lightning’s leading shot blocker, Ryan McDonagh with 107.
Players With Term (RFA or Contract Years)
Brandon Hagel – LW, Chicago Blackhawks
Age: 23
Stats: 21 Goals | 16 Assists | -14 | 17:28 TOI/G
Contract: 2024 RFA, $1,500,000
Misc. Stats: 25 Blocked Shots | 42 Hits | 80:51 PK TOI
Trade board rankings:
- The Athletic: 25
- Daily Faceoff: 6
- TSN: 12
Brandon Hagel is the youngest option here, and likely the costliest to acquire. Chicago’s front office has made it clear they are undertaking a rebuild, but Hagel at 23 years old remains young enough to be a future core piece alongside their 21-year-old center, former 3rd overall pick, Kirby Dach.
Hagel is one of Chicago’s top penalty killers and has the skill to play on Tampa’s top lines. He brings enough tenacity and willingness to play a heavy game that would allow him to succeed lower in the lineup too. Looking at Hagel’s ability to control chances on the ice, he is Chicago’s top forward with a the Corsi For% of 50.19% at even strength.
Perhaps the most attractive aspect of acquiring Hagel would be his cost certainty until the end of the 2024 season with only a $1,500,000 cap hit. With the Lightning facing a cap crunch for the foreseeable future, especially after 2023, acquiring a player such as Hagel on a team friendly contract would go a long way.
One major prohibitive issue to the Lightning acquiring Hagel is our zero cap space. Even though his contract could be easily made to fit by replacing him with any player if Chicago retained half his salary, getting them to use one of their three retention slots on an already extremely team-friendly contract for three seasons seems very unlikely. So, GM BriseBois would have to get creative in making Hagel’s cap number fit.
Here you can get a sense of the offensive talent Hagel possess that separates him from the rest of the forwards on this list (excuse the Kane highlights).
Artturi Lehkonen – LW/RW, Montreal Canadiens
Age: 26
Stats: 13 Goals | 15 Assists | +1 | 14:39 TOI/G
Contract: 2022 RFA, $2,300,000
Misc. Stats: 23 Blocked Shots | 58 Hits | 120:37 PK TOI
Trade board rankings:
- The Athletic: 24
- Daily Faceoff: 31
- TSN: 22
Artturi Lehkonen is an intriguing option as there are many statistics that back him up as being a potential needle mover for a team in the playoffs. He is Montreal’s top penalty kill forward by ice-time, he scores at a respectable rate, brings the physicality desired for playoff hockey by blocking shots, throwing hits, and going to the front of the net, and ranks as the Canadiens’ top forward in the CF% and xGF% metrics at even strength.
A potential hiccup to making any trade work would be that the Canadiens are not committed on selling Lehkonen at the deadline. He’s a valuable piece to the Canadiens’ locker room, and the Canadiens are not necessarily in sell mode as they still have the players in place to make playoff runs after falling the Lightning in the Stanley Cup last year but floundered out of the gate this season before showing new life under new head coach Martin St. Louis.
The asking price to acquire Lehkonen is rumored to start with a first-round draft pick but could rival the value of the package the Lightning sent the Devils in exchange for Blake Coleman if there’s large demand for him. Also, with Montreal being a division rival, we can almost guarantee he would not come cheap if we were to pursue him.
Another aspect that differentiates Lehkonen from the rest of the forwards here is that he has desirable playoff and Stanley Cup Final experience with Montreal from last season. Here he is scoring the goal that sent the Canadiens to the Final against the Lightning.
Luke Schenn – RD, Vancouver Canucks
Age: 32
Stats: 3 Goals | 9 Assists | +13 | 17:04 TOI/G
Contract: 2023 UFA, $850,000
Misc. Stats: 69 Blocked Shots | 190 Hits | 83:19 PK TOI
Trade board rankings:
- The Athletic: NR
- Daily Faceoff: NR
- TSN: 58
If there’s concerns about the right side of the Lightning’s defense, what better option to bring in than someone who was on the previous two Stanley Cup winning teams. Luke Schenn played 19 games combined the previous two postseasons for the Lightning but left for a larger role with the Vancouver Canucks in the offseason.
With Vancouver, Schenn has averaged almost 6 more minutes of ice-time per game than he did the previous two seasons in Tampa and has been predominately paired with Quinn Hughes as the stay-at-home physical defenseman of their pairing. He would be a natural fit to slide back into a similar role paired with Hedman or Sergachev.
While trade talk around Schenn has been light around the league, Vancouver could be in the position to sell assets like Schenn at the deadline even though they remain in the hunt for a playoff spot.
The fit for Tampa is obvious if they want him. However, part of Schenn signing in Vancouver instead of Tampa was his desire for a larger role. A trade to back to Tampa would probably make him the 7th defenseman and possibly keep him in that position until the end of the 2023 season.
Jacob Middleton – LD, San Jose Sharks
Age: 26
Stats: 3 Goals | 6 Assists | +3 | 19:05 TOI/G
Contract: 2022 RFA, $725,000 (Group VI UFA candidate)
Misc. Stats: 84 Blocked Shots | 83 Hits | 68:05 PK TOI
Trade board rankings:
- The Athletic: NR
- Daily Faceoff: NR
- TSN: 7
Jacob Middleton stands out as a peculiar option as a left-handed defenseman since left defense is the Lightning’s strongest position group. However, Pierre LeBrun has said that the Lightning are among the teams checking in with San Jose on Middleton’s availability. With the acquisition cost said to be around a second-round pick and a prospect and/or additional draft pick.
Middleton would presumably slot into the third pair as a strong shutdown defenseman and free-up Mikhail Sergachev to play more minutes on the right side of pairings with Hedman and McDonagh.
My concern here would be that Sergachev has proven not to be Hedman’s best pairing partner thus far. Hedman paired with Rutta has been on-ice at a much higher rate for even-strength goals, and Hedman with Foote has been better defensively than with Sergachev. Although, if Middleton is capable a playing the right side as a left-handed defender, I see him as a potentially very valuable addition to the Lightning.
Here you can see the physicality and stay-home nature of Middleton’s play style that would make him an attractive target for the Lightning.