Lightning ECF: 5 Questions Heading Into Eastern Conference Final and Series Predictions

The Tampa Bay Lightning are set start their sixth Eastern Conference Final appearance in the last eight seasons with a rematch from 2015 against the New York Rangers.

Much has changed since the 2015 series that ended with the Lightning becoming the first team to defeat the Rangers in a game 7 at Madison Square Garden. The Lightning are no longer the new kids in the postseason and are now a battle-hardened team with two Cups to their names.

For New York, their roster has been entirely rebuilt since 2015 – only Chris Kreider remains from that team. Their captain, Ryan McDonagh, now wears a Lightning uniform, and they now resemble the up-and-coming team loaded with young talent that the Lightning were in 2015.

Before the series kicks off, we have a couple of questions for the Tampa Bay Lightning that will need to be answered as the series progresses.

Will the extended break hurt the Lightning?

When the puck drops to begin the Eastern Conference Final, it will have been nine days since the Lightning completed the sweep of the Panthers. The Rangers on the other hand will enter the series with only one day of rest after their second round series against the Carolina Hurricanes went the distance.

History is not on the Lightning’s side here as the last seven teams coming off a sweep in the previous series that faced a team that won a game 7 have all lost. We have to go back to 1999 when the Dallas Stars defeated the St. Louis Blues in the second round before the losing streak ends for teams coming off a sweep.

We have to go back even further to find the last time this trend was bucked in the semifinals or Stanley Cup Final, and that was when the Montreal Canadiens won the Prince of Wales Conference Final in 1993.

For the Bolts this time around, I think there’s every reason to believe they will find a way to win regardless of recent history trends. The leadership group of this team is exceptionally strong and the team as a whole as proven to be one of the most resilient in the salary cap era, and possibly ever, as evident by their 16-0 record after a loss since the start of the 2020 playoffs.

Can they overcome Brayden Point being unable to play in ECF?

There’s no denying the Lightning are a better team when their star center Brayden Point is healthy on the ice. But Point has not played since he appeared to suffer a lower body injury early in Game 7 of the first round against Toronto.

Looking back at the Florida series, you would not have known that the Lightning were missing a major piece of their offense as they swept the Panthers and averaged 3.25 goals per game.

They were able to use a combination of Anthony Cirelli, Nick Paul, and Steven Stamkos as centers for their top two lines to mitigate the impact of Point being out. Paul in particular stepped up in a major way averaging over 20 minutes of ice-time per game. And on the power play it was a similar story as Corey Perry scored twice in Point’s bumper position in the middle of the top power play unit.

Point remains out for now as he is yet to return to practice, but recent comments from players on the team indicate that not all hope is lost for him potentially making a return down the line.

As for if we should be concerned if Point’s absence will affect the team, I would say that after the team’s dominant performance against the Panthers that this team is more than capable of winning this series without him.

Will the Rangers regular season domination of the Bolts carryover to the playoffs?

A short view back to the past. The Lightning were 0-3 against the Rangers during the regular season and were largely held in check offensively. In those three games, New York’s goaltender, Igor Shesterkin, only surrendered 4 goals to Tampa Bay, including one shutout.

The short answer to whether the Rangers will continue have their way over the Lightning is that the playoffs is a different animal, and the regular season means nothing. But look closer and we will see that a lot has changed for the Lightning since their last meeting with the Rangers on March 19.

That March 19 game was Brandon Hagel’s first with the team, and Nick Paul was still an Ottawa Senator.

Look back further to the New Year’s Eve and January 2 games and remember that Nikita Kucherov missed both of them while still recovering from surgery on a lower body injury sustained in October.

To be fair to the Rangers, they haven’t been idle since these meetings either. They added Andrew Copp and Justin Braun to their roster at the trade deadline and both have become reliable contributors for them since.

Time will tell but considering how much has changed for both teams since their previous meetings this season, it looks like it’s a clean slate for both teams when it comes to drawing conclusions on how they will match up.

Is the Vasilevskiy advantage neutralized by Shesterkin?

In case you have not heard, the Eastern Conference Final will feature two of the best goaltenders in the NHL right now.

For the Lightning, Andrei Vasilevskiy is in his usual dominant playoff form that led the team to the past two Stanley Cups and won him last year’s Conn Smythe. Entering the series with a 2.22 GAA and 0.932 save percentage through 11 games, Vasy leads all remaining goaltenders in the playoffs.

Not far behind him though is the likely 2022 Vezina Trophy winner, Rangers’ netminder Igor Shesterkin. Entering the series with a 2.68 GAA and 0.928 save percentage, the question of if Vasy will be able to bail out the Bolts to win them games when the opposing goalie is equally capable of doing the same becomes a valid question.

Despite stellar play from both net-minders, the advantage should still lean toward the Lightning and Vasilevskiy as they have the proven history of performing in the postseason on their side, but the possibility of Shesterkin outdueling Vasilevskiy being the difference in the series cannot be discounted.

ECF Predictions from Bolts By The Bay Writers

Noah: Lightning in 7

Stephen: Lightning in 6

Henry: Lightning in 6

None of us foresaw the sweep coming against the Florida Panthers, but fear not as a new series means another chance for us to take a swing at who will win and how many games it will go, and if we’re lucky we’ll be able to claim we know something about hockey.

Noah is sticking with the Lightning in 7 for the third time these playoffs on the grounds that Shesterkin will make this a close series. Conversely, I will be joining Henry’s optimistic train of thought and say the Bolts will close out the series before a game 7 at MSG.

This series should not be easy for the Lightning, but on paper this is the least threatening team the Lightning have faced through the first three rounds. But that paper of course means nothing once the puck drops.