Lightning SCF Roundtable: Who steps up, Point’s return, series and Conn Smythe predictions
The Tampa Bay Lightning are 4 wins away from becoming the first team to three-peat since the 80’s New York Islanders but will become the first to do so in the salary cap era if they pull it off. The Colorado Avalanche, looking for their first Stanley Cup since 2001, stand in the way. Before things get underway, the writers of Bolts by The Bay discussed some of the biggest questions for the Lightning entering the series.
Which player needs to step up in scoring for the Lightning to win?
Noah Wilson: I’m picking Alex Killorn. He only has four assists with no goals so far this series. Usually, we see Killorn put up more than four points at this point, let alone a goal, so he needs to step up some more to give the Lightning a better chance at beating such a high caliber Avalanche team
Henry Yoho: Victor Hedman. It’s hard to say the scoring has dried up for one of the league’s best blue liners when he’s still close to a point per game. The offensive output has slowed down a bit since round one. There’s still not another defenseman I’d want on my team, but the Lightning could use a little more output from him on the back end. I believe that starts with calling his own number on the power play a bit more.
Stephen Parrino: I think Killorn is the obvious answer here, but I believe a Brandon Hagel breakout could happen at any time. Outside of his empty net score in Game 5 against the Rangers, Hagel’s only other goal was in Game 2 of the Toronto series. He is still playing great defense and generating tons of opportunities along with the rest of Cirelli’s line, but out of everyone he feels like the most snakebitten and just needs a little puck luck to go his way and things could really open up for him.
How do you envision Braydon Point being incorporated back into the Lightning Lineup?
Noah Wilson: Point isn’t 100%, I think that’s the case with a lot of players at this point. I could see Point being used on the second line playing more of a playmaking role as to not injure anything else, and on a line with Colton and Paul I could see them doing a lot of damage. Cooper has some choices to make with him, and I think a line of Point, Colton, and Paul would be a dangerous one that would be able to get past the Avalanche’s top-tier defense
Stephen Parrino: It does look like we’re going to get Point back for Game 1. I think the real question is how healthy, and how effective, he will be after missing a month. As for how he slots into the lineup, the top six feels set. Palat-Stamkos-Kucherov is delivering the offense and Cirelli with Hagel and Killorn have been great at shutting down whatever line Cooper has them up against. Point almost has to be put with Nick Paul and Ross Colton to start because I do not know how you can break up those lines for a player coming off injury, even if it is Brayden Point. Although, I do expect that he will jump right back into his top power play unit role.
Henry Yoho: I don’t think we’ll see Point playing 20 minutes in a game. It seems when he returns he’ll play a little further down in the lineup but you can still expect him to have a big impact, especially if he is able to skate up to his ability and possess the puck the way he can. When he does return to action, I think you can expect him to return to his spot on the top power play unit as well.
With the recent series against the Rangers and their tight goaltending and defense, do we see similar, more offense focused play in this series like we did previously?
Henry Yoho: I think we could see a bit more offense. The Lightning haven’t seen a team that can score and take over a game quite like this Avalanche team. Conversely, the Avalanche haven’t seen a team that can defend like the Lightning or a goaltender close to Andrei Vasilevskiy. Ultimately, the Lightning have the ability to win any sort of way but they will have a better chance of winning if they keep the scoring low.
Stephen Parrino: The Lightning are not going to be able to sit back and play defense against the Avs offense for the majority of games – they will need to sustain offensive pressure. They are going to want to make the Avs play their game, but at the same time all of the Tampa Bay forwards are capable of playing any style necessary, so I am not too concerned about having to play any one style.
Noah Wilson: I think we see some more offense than the New York series with how good the defense is for Colorado. While they have good offense, I would like to see their defense pushed to their limits whenever they have the chance
Is Andrei Vasilevskiy the Lightning’s greatest advantage over Colorado?
Stephen Parrino: This season’s playoff run feels like it’s had the best opposing offensive talent since the bubble in 2020. Toronto had multiple gifted shooters and was the second highest scoring offense in the league, Florida was the highest scoring offense, and New York had me initially worried after it looked like Kreider, Zibanejad, and Vatrano were going to be able to exploit Vasy high blocker side. Three series later and the worries proven wrong and Vasy is rocking a 0.928 save percentage. Now, with the third highest scoring offense on deck I have full belief in Vasilevskiy to continue his stellar performance.
When you look at Colorado, they should get Kuemper back from injury after Francouz played the entirety of the Western Conference Final, but it’s hard to imagine either come anywhere close to matching Vasy. If we can match Colorado on offense and defense, our goaltending advantage should give us a sizeable advantage in the series, but matching up with Colorado’s forwards is easier said than done.
Noah Wilson: I think Vasilevsky will be Tampa’s greatest advantage. While Kuemper has been great for the last couple months, nobody can compare to Vasilevskiy. If it wasn’t for Vasilevskiy, Tampa would’ve had a much harder time getting to the finals.
Henry Yoho: Without a doubt. Andrei Vasilevskiy is the greatest equalizer in the NHL. There’s some uncertainty about who will be in net for Colorado coming into the series. I believe that if you are not sure who’s going to be in net, you are already behind. Colorado may have the deepest and best team the Lightning have gone up against in the past three years, but the best goaltender they will have faced was in the last round. For me, whoever has the better goaltender or has their goaltender perform better, pretty much always wins.
What is your Stanley Cup Final series and Conn Smythe predictions?
Henry Yoho: Lightning in 6; Steven Stamkos
This has been a late career renaissance for Stamkos this season. A career high in points in the regular season and career high in playoff goals thorough just three rounds. He put the team on his back in game six against New York in a career defining performance and should be in the Conn Smythe conversation if he continues to produce at this high level.
Noah Wilson: Lightning in 7; Nikita Kucherov
Kucherov has been great this entire postseason and whenever there’s a big goal for the Lightning, Kucherov always seems to be the player setting up the play. If he plays this way in the finals, setting everyone up and collecting points like hockey cards, there’s no doubt in my mind he’s seen as the MVP.
Stephen Parrino: Lightning in 6; Steven Stamkos
The Avalanche are the favorites here, but experience still counts for something, and the Lightning have been in championship form since Game 7 in Toronto, with the only hiccups occurring in the first two games in New York after a long rest period.
There’s no other way for me to describe Stamkos this postseason other than special. He’s already scored more goals these playoffs than he has in any other and he only needs four more points to make this his highest scoring playoffs. If we are to threepeat, I think the captain is going to have to be our best player and put multiple pucks in the back of Colorado’s net.
dark. Next. Ranking the Top Five Lightning Players in Round Three