Lightning vs. Maple Leafs: Who has the Advantage?

The Tampa Bay Lightning and the Toronto Maple Leafs are finally set to dance again in the Stanley Cup Playoffs following their epic seven game series last Spring. These teams have been destined to meet again in round one for months.

With the Lightning struggling down the stretch, it seems like it may finally be time for Toronto to make it out of round one for the first time since 2004. The needle seems to be pushing in favor of the Leafs and the overall depth of these teams has a lot to do with it. Let’s get into who has the advantage where in this series.

Forwards

Advantage: Toronto

While the top two lines of these two teams are pretty even, the overall depth of the group of forwards most favors the Maple Leafs. They have significantly more options at the forward position as far as bringing guys in and out of the lineup. They were very busy at the deadline bringing in players like Ryan O’Rielly, Noel Acciari and Sam Lafferty to sure up their depth and make them a team more built for the playoffs.

Adding Forward Matthew Knies after his Minnesota Gophers lost in the NCAA National Championship game could be a wild card for the Leafs as yet another option that Toronto has to insert into their lineup despite playing just three regular season games.

As for the Lightning, their stars are just as good as Toronto’s. Where they probably fall behind is the depth. Their bottom two lines are probably not as good as Toronto’s and have very limited options as far as making lineup changes are concerned. At full health,  Tampa Bay has just one extra forward. Tampa Bay will be without Tanner Jeannot to begin the series so they will only have 12 healthy forwards compared to Toronto’s 14.

Defense

Advantage: Toronto

Toronto were big spenders deadline on defense as well. They added three defensemen in Luke Schenn, Jake McCabe and Erik Gustafsson. All of these pieces improve the depth on the Toronto blue-line immensely. They now have nine healthy defensemen they can chose from.

As for Tampa Bay, I would probably still say their top end defensemen are still better than Toronto’s but the Leafs win having the overall better group. Victor Hedman and Mikhail Sergachev are probably a better one-two punch than any combination Toronto can roll out.

There is no doubt that losing Ryan McDonagh and Jan Rutta were huge losses this past summer for the Lightning. Their blue line contains some names that will be put to the test and thrown into the national spotlight for the first time. Nick Perbix and Darren Raddysh will be tasked with playing their first Stanley Cup Playoff games on a Lightning blue-line that has struggled greatly at times this season.

Special Teams

Advantage: Even

Toronto and Tampa Bay finished as the second and third best power plays in the league this season behind only the Edmonton Oilers killer power play. Both teams are around the middle of the pack as far as penalty kill is concerned as well so it is hard to lend the advantage one way or another.

Toronto’s recent playoff shortcomings have coincided with their power play going cold at the worst possible times. In last year’s series, Toronto’s power play went scoreless in their four opportunities in their two attempts at closing out the Lightning in game six and game seven. In the four games the Lightning won last year against Toronto, the Leafs scored just one power play goal in those games combined. Keeping the Maple Leafs power play quiet could be a huge chance for the Lightning to swing momentum.

Goaltending

Advantage: Tampa Bay

Andrei Vasilevskiy is the greatest equalizer in the NHL and he is by far the most significant advantage the Lightning will have over Toronto in this series. Vasilevskiy was not at his absolute best throughout the series with Toronto last year. In the seven games, Vasilevskiy surrendered 24 goals. The biggest difference was that he only allowed one goal in the final four periods of the series and pushed the Lightning over the edge. Tampa Bay will need the Vasilevskiy they got in game six and seven last year if they are going to take down Toronto again.

For the Leafs, Ilya Samsonov has been a great find after he was not qualified by Washington this past summer. Samsonov was potentially expected to be in tandem with Matt Murray who has continued to have difficulty shedding the hospital bracelet. The net looks to belong to Samsonov going into the playoffs.

One big thing to keep an eye on has been that Samsonov has not been as strong on the road as he has been in Toronto. On the road this season, he is just 8-7-2 compared to 19-3-1 on home ice. He has allowed almost a full goal per game more on the road than he has at home. If Toronto is going to win this series, they will likely need to win at least twice on the road.