How much should the Tampa Bay Lightning pay Tanner Jeannot?

It’s no secret that Tanner Jeannot did not live up to the bounty that the Tampa Bay Lightning gave up to acquire him from the Nashville Predators. After scoring 24 goals and totaling 41 points to go along with 318 hits during the 2021-22 campaign, Julien BriseBois swung for the fences trying to acquire the next Blake Coleman or Barclay Goodrow.

Instead, one goal and three assists later over a 20-game sample size prior to his injury, Jeannot looks like a swing-and-miss for Tampa.

With Jeannot’s contract up as a restricted free agent, how much should BriesBois pay to retain the physical forward?

Tampa Bay Lightning: Do you believe in magic?

Let’s set some parameters for what the Lightning’s cap situation looks like and how money actually money is left to even sign Jennaot.

If we assume that Ian Cole probably doesn’t come back due to cap constraints, Tampa still has seven defensemen under contract heading into 2023-24:

• Victor Headman
• Mikhail Sergachev
• Darren Raddysh
• Nick Perbix
• Haydn Fleury
• Erik Cernak
• Zach Bogosian

This also doesn’t include the ability to call up Philippe Meyers if needed.

Brian Elliot’s contract is up, but whether Tampa resigns him, signs someone of a similar caliber, or calls up Hugo Alnefelt, it would be doubtful the Lightning spend more than $1,000,000 for a backup goalie.

This leaves Tampa with roughly $7,600,000 left in cap space and five roster spots for forward that need to be filled. Like Elliot, Corey Perry and Pierre-Edouard Bellemare have their contracts up. Whether they re-sign at $1,000,000 each or have their spots filled by some else that costs $1,000,000 or less (such as Alex Barre-Boulet or Gage Goncalves), it would leave Tampa with no more than $6,000,000 in cap space with three forward spots still to fill with Alex Killorn, Ross Colton, and Jeannot still not inked.

Killorn and Colton don’t benefit from this situation, and there is a chance that both don’t get re-signed. But for Jennaot, there is some wiggle room to play with.

Ignoring the draft picks Tampa gave up to acquire him, at $800,000 for 2022-23, his contract was actually a decent valued contract. According to CapFriendly, his cost per point (divide his cap hit by total points) was 111st in the NHL, which is towards the top for value. Add in his 290 hits during the season, and Jennaot is a bottom-six forward worth having on your squad.

Since he is an RFA coming off an injury, it is doubtful that another team will try to poach him, giving the Lightning the upper hand in negotiations. It is also doubtful that Jeannot tries to get more than the $1,500,000 Brandon Hagel was being paid when he came to Tampa from Chicago. Hagel even had a similarly slow start after being acquired and responded with an impressive first full season in Tampa.

If JBB wants to squeeze out even more savings, he can point to the two-year, $1,300,000 per year deal that Carl Grundström of the LA Kings signed last offseason. Grundstrom scored 15 points in 54 games with the Kings during the 2021-22 season and averaged 2.4 hits per game.

Jennaot averaged 3.8 hits per game this season, so $1,300,000 might become the floor for a deal. The only sticking point at that point would be term length. Both Hagel and Grundström signed two-year deals. It’s unlikely we’ll see a Nick Paul like deal, but anything is possible.

That would leave, at best $4,700,000 left with two forward slots still to fill to complete the 2023-24 Tampa Bay Lightning roster. If JBB can finagle this contract even lower to $1,000,000 and he cuts bait with Ross Colton, there actually could be enough left for Killorn to re-sign at his $4,250,000 cap hit if he wanted to stay.

But for now, Tampa has to hope one way or another that Jennaot has a bounce-back season in 2023-24 that Hagel had this year.