Projecting the forward lines for the 2023-24 Tampa Bay Lightning

Tampa Bay Lightning First Line Projection:

• Brayden Point
• Steven Stamkos
• Nikita Kucherov

We know that Jon Cooper tries to mix and match Stamkos as much as he can. While Point and Kucherov are almost guaranteed to be together, Stamkos tends to bounce back and forth with Cirelli as the situation calls for.

Evaluating whether Hagel or Stamkos is the better option for the top line can lead one down a rabbit hole of metrics. At the most basic level, there were 36 goals scored and 34 surrendered when the line of Point, Kucherov, and Hagel was on the ice during 5 v 5 play last season.

When swapping Stamkos for Hagel, there were 19 goals scored with just 12 surrendered.

The expected goal share with Stamkos paired up with Point and Kucherov instead of Hagel was 57% compared to 53%.

This is despite the fact that the combination with Hagel had far better Corsi numbers (56% to 50%), and the Stamkos combo surrendered more shots than they took.

But this actually makes sense because we know, much to the angst of Phil Esposito, that Tampa is prone to pass too much rather than just take a shot.

But while adding Hagel to the mix resulted in a shot every 1.67 minutes vs every 1.76 minutes with Stamkos, the Stamkos-led line generated a goal every 15 minutes of 5 v 5 play vs every 17 minutes with Hagel in the mix.

If you want Tampa’s absolute best pairing for the top line, this is the group to go with.

Tampa Bay Lightning Second Line Projections:

• Brandon Hagel
• Anthony Cirelli
• Alex Barre-Boulet

Cirelli is locked in as the second-line center, and Hagel solidified himself as a top-six forward in 2022-23, but who to pair them with becomes difficult.

Odds are, Alex Killorn is gone. If he does resign with Tampa, then he will slide in as the third forward. The line of Hagel, Cirelli, and Killorn was a good one, with all the metrics on the plus side, including a 59% expected goal share.

Barre-Boulet is almost for sure on the main roster next season after posting 84 points in 69 games with Syracuse. Whether he is a Top 6 forward remains to be seen, but if Killorn is gone and Ross Colton is also gone, the only other real option for this line would be Nick Paul.

But Paul and Hagel didn’t have great numbers when they played together last season. The duo was on the ice together for 141 minutes of 5 v 5 play, and their expected goal share was 45%, and their percentage share of high-danger chances was 41%.

One would have to think, given those numbers, that Cooper at least tries to pair up Barre-Boulet as the third forward on this line.

Tampa Bay Lightning Third Line Projections:

• Nick Paul
• Corey Perry
• Tanner Jeanott

If Ross Colton gets resigns, he probably slots into this line. And honestly, the problem for Colton isn’t whether Tampa can afford him for 2023-24; it is whether Tampa can afford him AND Hagel for 2024-25.

It is with that in mind that Colton might not come back. Corey Perry needs a new contract as well, but it actually makes sense to bring him back, as his numbers this year were better than meets the eye.

Tanner Jeanott also needs a new deal, but given what Tampa gave up to acquire him at the trade deadline, it is also a guarantee they will ink him to a new deal.

And if all three are in Tampa next season, it would make the most sense to pair the group together on the third line. This would give Tampa a bruising third line with Jeanott as the main battering ram and Paul and Perry in clean up.

This could also be a sneaky good scoring line if the cards break right. Paul started out the season hot, scoring 13 goals in Tampa’s first 30 games of the season, and was on pace for a 35-goal season before tailing off the back half of the year.

Jeanott posted 24 goals during his rookie campaign with Nashville.

Even if the goals don’t always find the net, both are solid at drawing penalties. Paul drew 17 penalties, while Jennaott had 24 between Nashville and Tampa.

Perry also had 23 penalties drawn, though a good number of those were matching majors for fighting.

Tampa Bay Lightning Fourth Line Projections:

• Pat Maroon
• Mikey Eyssimont
• Rudolfs Balcers

Marron and Eyssimont are both signed and under contract. It is unclear with Bellemare will come back to join this line. Cap space for next season isn’t even the issue, it’s whether or not Tampa wants him back or wants to get younger.

As we chronicled on the site when debating whether to bring back Corey Perry, that paring of Perry and Maroon just isn’t a good one anymore. It creates a line that is just too slow and too vulnerable to the rush.

So if Perry does come back, Maroon has to be split up from him. Eyssimont looked decent in his small sample size with Tampa, but his size is a concern.

Even though he is only 25 years old, Rudolfs Balcers has played 170 games in the NHL and has scored 62 points. That averages out to 30 points over an 82-game schedule, which would be just fine for Tampa if he is on the fourth line.

While Balcers would need to be signed as an RFA, and that is far from a guarantee, Tampa is also in need of cheap contracts, and he might just fit the bill.