Bolts by the Bay
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Projecting the forward lines for the 2023-24 Tampa Bay Lightning

By Benjamin Henderson

Apr 24, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning left wing Alex Killorn (17) celebrates with center Steven Stamkos (91), center Brayden Point (21), defenseman Victor Hedman (77) and right wing Nikita Kucherov (86) after he scores a goal against the Toronto Maple Leafs during the first period of game four of the first round of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Amalie Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 24, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning left wing Alex Killorn (17) celebrates with center Steven Stamkos (91), center Brayden Point (21), defenseman Victor Hedman (77) and right wing Nikita Kucherov (86) after he scores a goal against the Toronto Maple Leafs during the first period of game four of the first round of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Amalie Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /
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Mar 28, 2023; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning center Brayden Point (21) is congratulated by center Steven Stamkos (91) after his goal against the Carolina Hurricanesd3p at PNC Arena. Mandatory Credit: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 28, 2023; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning center Brayden Point (21) is congratulated by center Steven Stamkos (91) after his goal against the Carolina Hurricanesd3p at PNC Arena. Mandatory Credit: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports /

Tampa Bay Lightning First Line Projection:

  • Brayden Point
  • Steven Stamkos
  • Nikita Kucherov

We know that Jon Cooper tries to mix and match Stamkos as much as he can. While Point and Kucherov are almost guaranteed to be together, Stamkos tends to bounce back and forth with Cirelli as the situation calls for.

Evaluating whether Hagel or Stamkos is the better option for the top line can lead one down a rabbit hole of metrics. At the most basic level, there were 36 goals scored and 34 surrendered when the line of Point, Kucherov, and Hagel was on the ice during 5 v 5 play last season.

When swapping Stamkos for Hagel, there were 19 goals scored with just 12 surrendered.

The expected goal share with Stamkos paired up with Point and Kucherov instead of Hagel was 57% compared to 53%.

This is despite the fact that the combination with Hagel had far better Corsi numbers (56% to 50%), and the Stamkos combo surrendered more shots than they took.

But this actually makes sense because we know, much to the angst of Phil Esposito, that Tampa is prone to pass too much rather than just take a shot.

But while adding Hagel to the mix resulted in a shot every 1.67 minutes vs every 1.76 minutes with Stamkos, the Stamkos-led line generated a goal every 15 minutes of 5 v 5 play vs every 17 minutes with Hagel in the mix.

If you want Tampa’s absolute best pairing for the top line, this is the group to go with.

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