How long is the window open for the Tampa Bay Lightning?

Since 2015, all has been well for the Tampa Bay Lightning. Despite some hiccups along the journey, Tampa has been the premier team in the NHL over the past nine years, with six appearances in the conference finals. Vegas is the next closest, with four appearances in that time frame, but there are no Stanley Cups to show for it.

But as great of a run as this has been for Tampa, it isn’t going to last forever. That’s just the reality of the NHL. How long can we reasonably expect Tampa to keep it going though?

Tampa Bay Lightning: Can’t Stop Won’t Stop

Here is an inconvenient truth for Lightning fans to consider, all but two of the Stanley Cup champions from 2007 to 2019 missed the playoffs this past season (Anaheim, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Washington, St. Louis).

In addition, six more teams that made it to the Finals and lost between 2007 and 2021 also failed to make it to the playoffs this season (Ottawa, Philadelphia, Vancouver, San Jose, Nashville, and Montreal).

What inevitably happens when teams make it all the way to the promise land is that the lack of high-quality draft picks ends up coming around to haunt teams as the stars that led them to greatness either age out or become too expensive.

Take Chicago, for example. In back-to-back drafts in 2006 and 2007, they were able to draft Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane with top-three picks. That duo led the Blackhawks to three Stanley Cups, but from 2009 to 2017, Chicago only drafted inside the top 20 twice (and both times were at pick number 18).

The LA Kings took a similar route, drafting in the top five in 2007, 2008, and 2009, picking up Drew Doughty along the way. LA won two cups and only drafted inside the top 20 once from 2010 until 2019.

Pittsburgh had four straight seasons of having a top-two pick from 2003 to 2006. With Marc-Andre Fleury, Marc-Andre Fleury, and Sidney Crosby assembled Pittsburgh won three Stanley Cups from 2009 through 2017. The Penguins also have drafted inside the top 20 once since 2007

All those clubs took inevitable downturns, and Tampa Bay’s pathway to greatness mirrors what those three did to this point. The Lightning took Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman in 2008 and 2009, and since 2014 have only drafted inside the top 20 twice.

It is with all that in mind that, given the current state of Tampa’s roster and the age of everyone, we are going to go season by season and try and pinpoint just how long the window is open for the Tampa Bay Lightning to win another Stanley Cup realistically.

Tampa Bay Lightning 2023-24: The core is still here

• Guaranteed under-contract forwards: Stamkos, Kucherov, Point, Hagel, Cirelli, Paul, Maroon, Eyssimont
• Guaranteed under-contract defensemen: Hedman, Sergachev, Cernak, Perbix, Bogosian, Fleury, Raddysh
• Confidence Meter: High

We’ve been chronicling on the site what the roster for next season may or may not look like, but outside of Alex Killorn and possibly Ross Colton, all the key contributors from the 2022-23 season should be back.

If Brandon Hagel can continue his emergence, the Bolts should have at least four guys all go over 30 goals (Point, Stamkos, Hagel, Kucherov) with the possibility, if everything breaks correctly, that all four could go over 40 goals.

The blue line does have depth concerns and probably needs to sign an Ian Cole like rental for this season to be complete.

Andrei Vasilevskiy didn’t have the most amazing season in 2022-23. But he will still be south of 30 years old next season, and barring injury, there is no reason to believe that he won’t bounce back, especially after he is given extra rest he hasn’t had for the last three seasons.

Tampa Bay Lightning 2025-26: Age is just a number

• Guaranteed under-contract forwards: Kucherov, Point, Cirelli, Paul
• Guaranteed under-contract defensemen: Sergachev, Cernak
• Confidence Meter: Losing steam

One of the massive risks the Tampa Bay Lightning took by signing Vasilevskiy to an eight-year deal that runs through 2028 at $9,500,000 per year is that if he isn’t among the top five goalies in the league, it’s a contract that becomes a massive liability.

Just look at Florida and its contract with Sergei Bobrovsky. When he is on and is putting the team on his back like he is during this playoff run, he is worth every penny.

When he has a .901 save percentage, as he did during the regular season and was only 35th in the NHL in that category among goalies with at least 20 starts, it can cripple a team.

The concern for Vasilevskiy heading into 2025-26 is that he will be 31 years old. Of the 17 goalies that started at least 50 games in 2022-23, only three were older than 30.

In addition, the only goalie in the league this past season that made at least 20 starts, had a .915 save percentage or better, and was at least 30 years old was Scott Wedgewood of Dallas.

This doesn’t even include the fact that Hedman will need a new deal in 2025.

There will still be enough offensive firepower to get this team to the playoffs, but will there be enough goaltending to power through the entire way?

Tampa Bay Lightning 2026-27: Cracks in the foundation

• Guaranteed under-contract forwards: Kucherov, Point, Cirelli, Paul
• Guaranteed under-contract defensemen: Sergachev, Cernak
• Confidence Meter: It might be the end of the road

Anyone who is officially under contract for 2025-26 is still under contract for 2026-27. The problem is that everyone in Tampa is officially in the north of 30 territories.

At the start of the 2026 season, Stamkos will be 36. Hedman will be 35 going on 36. Kucherov will be 33. Point will now be 30, and even Paul will be 31.

There are obviously plenty of players that have elite careers once they are north of 30, but they are exceptions rather than the norm. Of the top 100 point scorers in the NHL in 2022-23, only 19 were 30 years old or older.

Of the truly elite players, only three of the top 20 scorers were north of 30 (Erik Karlsson, Sidney Crosby, and Artemi Panarin).

The 2026-27 season might be the genuine last hurrah for Tampa Bay Lightning as a true Stanley Cup contender, as Cirelli, Sergachev, Cernak, and Hagel (assuming he is resigned) would all still be south of 30 years old.

By this time, Gage Goncalves and Jack Thompson are the only recent young up-and-coming draft pick that seems to be on track to be eventual starters with Tampa. And considering Tampa doesn’t have a first-round draft pick until 2026, nor a second-round draft pick until 2025, there are no high-quality reinforcements coming unless they can find and develop another diamond in the rough as they did with Point.

If Tampa isn’t in a playoff position during this season, this would be the year to expect the Bolts to be sellers at the trade deadline rather than buyers for the first time in a long time.