Tampa Bay Lightning: What will Alex Killorn’s price tag be?

One of the sad realities for the Tampa Bay Lightning heading into the 2023 offseason is that salary cap constraint will make it next to impossible to resign all the players up for a new deal. Alex Killorn is at the top of that list, and the common belief is that he is due for a raise from his $4,450,000 per-year deal.

And once he hits the open market, historical data suggest that his price tag will be far too steep for Tampa.

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According to an article from Daily Faceoff that used data from AFP Analytics, the price tag for Killorn will probably come in at four years for $5.25 million per year. As the article points out, AFP Analytics is usually within $350,000 of the final contract number for players.

Coming off back-to-back seasons of 59 points and 64 points, this is a very realistic range for Killorn to land.

Jonathan Marchessault, for example, signed a six-year, $5,000,000 per year deal with Las Vegas following a 75-point season in 2017-18. He is coming off back-to-back seasons of 66 points and 57 points.

And it’s only because of Killorn’s age (he’ll be 34 once the 2023-24 season starts) that the number will even be as low as $5,250,000.

Chris Krider signed a seven-year, $6,500,000 per year deal in 2020 with the New York Rangers following back-to-back seasons of 54 points and 45 points.

Matt Duchene turned 70 points in 2018-19 into a seven-year, $8,000,000 per year deal with Nashville.

There are more examples, but any utopian vision that Killorn signs for anything less than $5,000,000 per year would require Killorn to leave millions on the table.

So, can he stay?

If you want to go crazy, there is an insane but possible way to keep Killorn around for 2023 and beyond.

Note that we here at Bolts by the Bay don’t advise this pathway, we are just noting what is possible.

If the Tampa Bay Lightning can get Killorn to sign for $5,000,000 per year, sign Tanner Jeannot for $1,200,000, call up Hugo Alnefelt to be the backup goalie for 2023-24 (which is entirely possible), and trade away Pat Maroon and replace him with a contract that is under $850,000, Tampa can sneak under the salary cap with the following roster:

Forwards:

• Stamkos
• Kucherov
• Point
• Hagel
• Cirelli
• Killorn
• Paul
• Jeannot
• Balcers
• Goncalves
• Eyssimont
• Barre-Boulet

Defensemen:

• Hedmen
• Cernak
• Sergachev
• Raddysh
• Fluery
• Perbix
• Bogosian

Goalies:

• Vasilevskiy
• Alnefelt

This would be a massively flawed roster that doesn’t address blue-line depth, would leave zero money leftover to sign Hagel, Raddysh, and Fluery in 2024, and would only carry 12 forwards.

In the event of an injury, Tampa would be forced to play one full game a man short before calling up an emergency forward.

Las Vegas and Toronto have dealt with this headache in recent years.

Nobody wants to see Alex Killorn leave, but market realities are probably going to drag him away.