With the recent report that the Tampa Bay Lightning have made an offer to bring back Alex Killorn, many have been left speculating that what deal might be. When looking at what kind of annual salary Killorn may be looking at to stay in Tampa, Nick Paul’s salary is something worth considering.
What we know so far is that the Lightning are rumored to have offered Killorn a long-term deal that is lower in Average Annual Value according to Elliotte Friedman’s 32 Thoughts blog.
This little blurb from @FriedgeHNIC’s 32 thoughts caught my eye.
— Andrew Weiss (@WeissHockeyTalk) June 2, 2023
I wonder what loooooong-term would look like. Here’s hoping Killorn takes something in Tampa either way. pic.twitter.com/Dnd0yleDL0
A “long term” deal for Killorn probably means five or six years. Killorn turns 34 in September. Many teams are skeptical about giving players long term deals that go into their late 30’s. However, if Killorn is able to keep a relatively low Average Annual Value, the risk might not be too great. With the cap expected to go up steadily over the next five years, a potential Killorn deal may not age too poorly.
As for what sort of annual salary may be looking at, Nick Paul’s $3.15 million per year is probably the starting point. Paul signed that deal for seven years last summer. The deals are not direct comparisons because Paul is a bit younger, he was 27 when he signed that deal. Paul also was signed somewhat on his potential with the Lightning. The situations are very different but Killorn is deserving of more money than Paul and that can certainly be a bargaining point from his perspective.
This past season, Killorn recorded 64 points, which is exactly double the amount of points that Paul had. On top of production, Killorn is one of the Lightning’s ultimate veteran leaders. He has been through it all with this group. To say Killorn is deserving of more money than Paul would be an understatement. If Killorn is to stay in Tampa, he likely will not be able to exceed Paul’s number by much, if at all. Regardless, he is surely not going to be able to get a raise on his previous $4.45 million per season.
The idea that the Lightning have already offered Killorn a long deal with low AAV is probably a bit of a hail Mary. He will likely be highly in demand on the open market and potentially looking at least a three year deal worth $5-6 million per season. The Lightning cannot go that high in salary but with longer term, they could come close in total contract value to what Killorn could be seeking.
Ultimately, if Killorn is going to stay in Tampa, taking anything less than $3.1 million per season could be giving up significant money at least as far as annual salary is concerned. The Lightning’s best hope will be if Killorn’s happiness to stay in Tampa will make up for a few million dollars left on the table elsewhere on the open market.