Tampa Bay Lightning: What if the 2004-05 NHL season wasn’t cancelled?

Yesterday marked the anniversary of the Tampa Bay Lightning winning its first-ever Stanley Cup. It was a cornerstone night for the franchise, but even as Tampa was skating around with Lord Stanley, there was the uncomfortable backdrop of the impending lockout in the NHL.

And as it was, the 2004-05 season was canceled, stunting any momentum the Lightning may have had to defend its crown.

But what if a deal could have been reached soon, and Tampa could have had a chance to defend its title in 2004-05?

Tampa Bay Lightning:  Waiting is the hardest part

On paper, Tampa was still in good shape had there been a 2004-05 season. Martin St. Louis, Brad Richards, Vincent Lecavalier, Ruslan Fedotenko, and Fredrik Modin were all still in their prime. The blue line was still going to have Dan Boyle, Pavel Kubina, and Cory Sarich.

And even when the NHL did return in 2005, almost all of those players had point totals that were as good if not better than what they had for the 2003-04 season when they won the Stanley Cup.

Corey Stillman departed for the new year but was replaced by the 80-point season from Vinny Prospal.

Yet the Tampa Bay Lightning went from a 46-22-8-6 record in 2003-04 for 106 points to 43-33-6 for 92 points and were bounced in the first round in five games by Ottawa.

So what did that missed year cost Tampa?

The single biggest loser was Dave Andreychuk. Already 40 years old, when Tampa won the Cup in 2004, the captain didn’t have the benefit of time. After playing all 82 games in 2003-04, Andreychuck only made it 42 games in 2005-06.

But Andreychuk alone isn’t why Tampa had such a dramatic drop.

St. Louis dropped from 94 points to 61 points despite the new rules that season that were supposed to allow freedom of movement.

While that didn’t help, the biggest reason for Tampa’s fall might have happened anyway, even if there wasn’t a lockout.

Another Brick in the Wall

For whatever reason, there never seem to be Nikolai Khabibulin jerseys floating around Amalie Arena from Lightning fans. But the Bolts don’t make their Stanley Cup run without having him in the net.

But he was 31 in 2004, and even if there were a 2004-05 season, Khabibulin wouldn’t have been back because his contract was up, and as it was, he was snagged by Chicago in free agency.

Taking over as the starter for the new season was John Grahame, who started 29 games during 2003-04 and had a 2.06 GAA. As the number one goalie for 2005-06, his numbers ballooned to a .889 save percentage and a 3.06 GAA.

If you really want to craft a narrative that Tampa would have won the Stanley Cup had there been a 2004-05 season, Grahame would have been 29 years old for that season, and we have pointed out on the site before what happens to goalies once they turn 30.

For example, Scott Wedgewood was the only goalie this past season to start at least 20 games, have a save percentage of at least .915, and be at least 30 years old.

So maybe Grahme could have held on enough, as well as Andreychuk holding on just enough, that Tampa could have made their actual defense a little bit better.

But in truth, Tampa probably doesn’t repeat the following season even if it had been a normal schedule.