What if Jonathan Marchessault had stayed with the Tampa Bay Lightning?

Once upon a time, the Tampa Bay Lightning had a young up-and-coming forward named Jonathan Marchessault that was a bright spot during the 2015-26 season among the bottom six forwards. He left Tampa in 2016 as a free agent after 47 games as a member of the Lightning.

Fast forward to 2023, and Jonathan Marchessault is a Stanley Cup champion and the winner of the Conn Smythe.

So why exactly was Tampa forced to part ways with him, and what would have happened had he stayed?

Let’s explore.

Tampa Bay Lightning: There isn’t room in this town

Tampa originally acquired Marchessault in a trade with Columbus in 2014 in exchange for Matt Taormina and Dana Tyrell. He appeared in two games during the 2014-15 campaign for the Tampa Bay Lightning before playing 45 games in 2015-16.

Marchessault accounted for 18 points during his 45 games and scored seven goals. Had he played all 82 games, he was on pace of 33 points and 13 goals.

He was a physical forward, accounting for 61 hits during his 45 games, but he ultimately only appeared in five playoff games during the 2016 playoffs that saw Tampa Bay advance to the Eastern Conference Finals.

As a UFA that offseason, Marchessault opted to sign with the Florida Panthers a two-year deal for just $750,000 per year. He ultimately was looking for an opportunity for more ice time because, given the contract he signed with Florida, it wasn’t an amount that Tampa would have had an issue matching.

It’s at this point that his story takes off.

During his lone season with Florida, he put up 30 goals and 51 points during the 2016-17 season. The Panthers inexplicably left him available during the expansion draft, and the Vegas Golden Knights said, “Thank you very much,” and gladly took him.

What if he had signed with Tampa?

So let’s just pretend that he had signed with Tampa in 2016, would he have stayed?

Keep in mind the reason he arrived in Vegas was due to the expansion draft.

So could Tampa have protected him in 2017?

If we assume he has the same 30-goal season with the Lightning in 2016-17, Tampa Bay protected the following players from Vegas:

• Steven Stamkos
• Nikita Kucherov
• Ryan Callahan
• Tyler Johnson,
• Ondrej Palat
• Alex Killorn
• Vladislav Namestnikov
• Victor Hedman
• Anton Stralman
• Braydon Coburn
• Andrei Vasilevskiy

Realistically, had Marchessault still been with the team and put up 30 goals, the Lightning would have protected him ahead of Namestnikov, who had just 10 goals that same season.

The deeper problem would have been in 2018.

Even though Marchessault’s contract is a steal at just $5 million per year, it’s hard to say whether Tampa could have done that deal in 2018. They already locked up money in 2017 with Ondrej Palat and Tyler Johnson, and in 2016 locked up Steven Stamkos and Alex Killorn to a long deal.

Given that he would have been a UFA in 2018, it feels unlikely that Tampa would have been able to engage in a bidding war to retain Marchessault.

BUT.

Heading into 2018, Ryan Callahan was on a modified trade clause and had Tampa really wanted to keep Marchessault, they would have shipped out Callahan’s $5,800,000 per year deal, which by 2018 had just two years left on it.

So there was a pathway to keep Marchessault in town, but alas he is one that ultimately got away for the Tampa Bay Lightning.