Five free agents the Tampa Bay Lightning should avoid

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Free agency officially opens in July, and the Tampa Bay Lightning figure to be extremely busy either trying to retain some key members from the team or find their replacements.

And while we here at Bolts by the Bay have chronicled free agents the Lightning could try and go after, there are also going to be a number of players on the market that Tampa needs to stay away from heading into the 2023-24 season.

We are factoring in what we think their production will be in 2023-24 as well as what their contract will likely be and if it makes sense for Tampa to pay that price. We are going to be using the database from AFP Analytics to roughly gauge what each player will probably cost.

Free agents for the Tampa Bay Lightning to avoid: Gustav Nyquist

2022-23 stats – 27 points in 51 games played (11 goals)
2023-24 projected salary – $3,200,000

We have chronicled before on this site that if Tampa will have around three to four million, they could spend on a free agent. With a projected rate of $3,200,000, Gustav Nyquist falls in the range of players that could very realistically sign with Tampa.

But there are a ton of red flags that come with Nyquist. He’s going to be 34 when the season starts and is coming off a season where he missed a week early in the season due to a lower-body injury and then missed the majority of the back half of the season due to a shoulder injury.

He was traded from Columbus to Minnesota and returned just in time for the playoffs. One may be intrigued, given that he did put up five points during their six-game series against Dallas.

He did have 53 points and 18 goals for Columbus during the 2021-22 campaign, but the core problem with Nyquist is that he doesn’t fit the two-way defensive mold that Tampa would need from a bottom-six forward.

That same 2021-22 season, he had just 33 hits during 5 v 5 play.

And this past season, despite having the benefit of 58% of his shifts starting while the puck was in the offensive zone and 52% of his faceoffs taking place in the offensive zone, his Corsi percentage was just 45%

Apr 11, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Flyers left wing James van Riemsdyk (25) against the Columbus Blue Jackets at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports /

Free agents for the Tampa Bay Lightning to avoid: James van Riemsdyk

2022-23 season – 29 points in 62 games played (12 goals)
2023-24 projected salary – $1,800,000

Jame van Riemsdyk never lived up to the five-year, $35 million contract he signed in 2018. He never topped 50 points after signing the contract, and this past season had just 29 points and 12 goals.

At a projected salary of $1,800,000, it is tempting to pick up a veteran forward that is still capable of scoring 40 points if healthy for the entire season.

But much like Nyquist, van Riemsdyk doesn’t fit the mold of what Tampa will need to replace Corey Perry potentially. While Philadelphia did have decent 5 v 5 numbers while van Riemsdyk was on the ice this past season and had a 52% goal share while he was on the ice, they did so by having him extremely protected.

He started 61.25% of his 5 v 5 shifts while the puck was in the offensive zone and 55.8% of faceoffs in the offensive zone. He doesn’t hit, just 16 hits on the season, and his 19 blocked shots were less than even Nikita Kucherov.

He also had two extended stints on the injured list this past season.

So if all Tampa would get is 40 points but none of the little things, van Riemsdyk is a player that will disappear in a heart beat come playoff time.

Jan 18, 2023; Calgary, Alberta, CAN; Colorado Avalanche defenseman Erik Johnson (6) skates against the Calgary Flames during the first period at Scotiabank Saddledome. Mandatory Credit: Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports /

Free agents for the Tampa Bay Lightning to avoid: Erik Johnson

2022-23 season – 8 points in 63 games played
2023-24 projected salary – $964,000

While Tampa doesn’t technically have to go out and sign a defenseman, as they have eight under contract, and that’s not counting Ian Cole, one of the key critiques is that Tampa didn’t upgrade along the blue line at the trade deadline.

So if Erik Johnson can be acquired for just $964,000 it might seem like a tempting bargin.

But at 35 years old, he is not the same player he was in 2015 when he signed a seven-year, $42 million deal with Colorado.

He is a bit more offensive-minded than, say, Erik Cernak, with 92 shots taken last year that reached the net, and at 78 blocked shots during 5 v 5 play in 63 games last season, he is a better shot blocker than Nick Perbix.

But a lot of his other metrics seem to fall in line with what Tampa Bay is already getting from Zach Bogosian, just without the physicality. At 104 hits last season, Johnson is only slightly more physical than Mikhail Sergachev and Ian Cole. And Bolts fans wouldn’t classify either of those two as super physical guys last year.

He also missed a month last season due to a foot injury and missed almost all of the 2021 season with an injury.

Apr 13, 2023; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Washington Capitals center Craig Smith (16) celebrates after scoring a goal against the New Jersey Devils in the first period at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports /

Free agents for the Tampa Bay Lightning to avoid: Craig Smith

2022-23 season – 16 points in 64 games played (nine goals)
2023-24 salary projection – $1,300,000

Smith is coming off a three-year deal with Boston worth $9,300,000. However, as part of the three-way trade that sent Dmitry Orlov and Garnet Hathaway to Boston, Smith was shipped out to Washington as the Capitals missed the playoffs.

He’ll be affordable at $1,300,000, but he has seen far better days in the NHL. He hasn’t topped 40 points since 2018, he didn’t hit or block shots much last year between his two teams.

When thinking about players that would fit well into what Tampa wants to do come playoff time, Smith just isn’t that guy.

He’ll be 34 once the season starts, so he still has some legs under him, but he went to the injured list three times last season and twice during the 2021-22 season.

Apr 2, 2023; Calgary, Alberta, CAN; Calgary Flames left wing Milan Lucic (17) screens in front of Anaheim Ducks goaltender Lukas Dostal (1) during the second period at Scotiabank Saddledome. Mandatory Credit: Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports /

Free agents for the Tampa Bay Lightning to avoid: Milan Lucic

2022-23 season – 19 points in 77 games played
2023-24 salary projection – $775,000

Now that his failed seven-year, $42 million contract is up, Milan Lucic is free for the taking, and based on projections, it seems like he can be had for the league minimum.

The problem is whether you think he has any magic left to be found. His last four years in Calgary saw him fail to score more than 23 points, and he hasn’t scored more than ten goals in a season since 2016-17.

Now he does still hit, with 166 hits last season, and he does not have an extensive injury history.

But he’s too slow to be effective with the puck and part of the problem for Tampa last year was that the paring of Corey Perry, Pat Maroon, and Pierre-Edouard Bellemare were just too slow as a group.

So if Lucic was brought in he would have to be split away from Pat Maroon and you could convince yourself that a battering ram line of Nick Paul, Tenner Jennot, and Milan Lucic might be effective.

But then you would realize the puck is never going in the net and would just look at your drink frustrated.

Depending on what else the roster looks like there could be a slot for Lucic on the bottom six, but for now we wouldn’t take the risk.

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