Tampa Bay Lightning: Five reasons for concern in 2023-24

Oct 11, 2022; New York, New York, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning head coach Jon Cooper watches his players during the second period against the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Danny Wild-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 11, 2022; New York, New York, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning head coach Jon Cooper watches his players during the second period against the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Danny Wild-USA TODAY Sports
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Yesterday, we listed out five reasons for hope for the Tampa Bay Lightning heading into the 2023-24 season. This is still a talented roster, and with a full offseason of rest, the boys in blue should be geared up and ready to go.

But, it isn’t all sunshine and roses for the Bolts heading into the new season, and there are some potential red flags ahead of the new campaign.

The following are five reasons to be concerned about the Tampa Bay Lightning for the 2023-24 season.

Tampa Bay Lightning Reasons For Concern: Third-line scoring

The third line for any team is what ultimately makes or breaks a team. The teams that make the playoffs and advance far have just enough goal-scoring out of the unit to propel their team over the finish line should the top two lines not produce.

For teams on the outside looking in, their third lines are usually scrappy but fail to produce a goal-scoring punch.

The potential third line for the Tampa Bay Lightning could go either way.

Right now, the third line will probably be Nicholas Paul, Tanner Jeannot, and Alex Barré-Boulet. This has the potential to be a very physical line that could wake up the echos of the Blake Coleman, Yanni Gourde, and Barclay Goodrow line if it can find a hint of a scoring touch.

But if Jeannot only scores six goals again for the season, Paul only scores one goal between January 18 and the end of the season, and Barré-Boulet doesn’t carry his goal-scoring over from Syracuse to the big club, this line could very quickly be the definition of a grinder line with no goal-scoring ability.

Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports /

Tampa Bay Lightning Reasons For Concern: Backup Goalie

As we referenced in our reasons for hope piece, the Lightning still has Andrei Vasilevskiy heading into the season. While his numbers weren’t up to his usual standard in 2022-23, he was still a top-10 goalie in the NHL last season.

But even the Big Cat needs a rest every now and again, and this is where things get dicey for Tampa.

The backup this season will either be Hugo Alnefelt or Jonas Johansson. Neither screams NHL-ready backup.

Alnefelt is 22 years old and had a .904 save percentage with Syracuse last season.

Johansson was acquired as a free agent on a two-way contract in the offseason. He has 35 career NHL starts with a .886 save percentage.

Ideally, Tampa would be able to keep Vasilevskiy to 55 starts and keep him fresh for the playoffs.

But if neither Alnefelt nor Johansson can elicit confidence, Vasilevskiy might be forced into action 65 times to keep Tampa competitive.

Jul 12, 2021; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Victor Hedman (77) hoists the Stanley Cup during the Stanley Cup Championship parade. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 12, 2021; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning defenseman Victor Hedman (77) hoists the Stanley Cup during the Stanley Cup Championship parade. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /

Tampa Bay Lightning Reasons For Concern: The Blue Line

After five straight seasons of being a Norris Trophy finalist for being the top defenseman in the NHL, Victor Hedman slipped down to 15th in the voting last season following his lowest goal total since 2012-13.

Now, obviously, there is more that goes into playing the blue line than scoring goals, but his plus/minus, while still +10, was his lowest for a full season since 2016-17. He had the most giveaways of his entire career in 2022-23. His on-ice corsi (shot attempts for vs. shot attempts against while on the ice) was the lowest he’s had since 2013-14.

This isn’t to say Victor Hedman is a bum. Far from it.

But his slow slip in play from elite to very good is a warning sign for the defensive group as a whole.

If healthy, Mikhail Sergachev and Erik Cernak will be fine, but finding three more quality defensemen is a concern.

Calvin de Haan, acquired in free agency, will be serviceable. Nick Perbix took strides last season but still can’t be left as a stand-alone defenseman.

Haydn Fleury was -10 last season. Darren Raddysh was -3. Zach Bogosian was -4.

If Hedman or Cernak get hurt, which is prone to happen, the group gets really thin real quick.

Dec 13, 2022; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Washington Capitals forward Conor Sheary (73) skates against the Chicago Blackhawks at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 13, 2022; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Washington Capitals forward Conor Sheary (73) skates against the Chicago Blackhawks at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports /

Tampa Bay Lightning Reasons For Concern: Conor Sheary

Acquired in free agency from Washington, Conor Sheary is a capable goal scorer.

When paired with Alex Ovechkin.

News flash: he won’t be paired with Alex Ovechkin in Tampa.

Last year, he scored 15 goals and had 22 assists. These are serviceable numbers but also fall in line with Alex Killorn’s numbers pre-2019.

With the anticipation that Sheary will be taking Killorn’s spot on the second line, he will need to double his goal-scoring to match what Killorn did the last couple of seasons.

And at 5’9″ and 179 pounds, Sheary is four inches shorter and 15 pounds lighter than Killorn.

If Sheary can’t find the back of the net at least 20 times, it is going to put even more pressure on Point, Stamkos, Kucherov, and Hagel to produce.

Apr 13, 2023; Buffalo, New York, USA; Buffalo Sabres center Tage Thompson (72) celebrates his goal with teammates during the third period against the Ottawa Senators at KeyBank Center. Mandatory Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 13, 2023; Buffalo, New York, USA; Buffalo Sabres center Tage Thompson (72) celebrates his goal with teammates during the third period against the Ottawa Senators at KeyBank Center. Mandatory Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports /

Tampa Bay Lightning Reasons For Concern: The division is catching up

Most Tampa Bay Lightning fans, and perhaps the players themselves, checked out the last couple months of the season because a playoff berth seemed well in hand.

The actual final margin that got the Lightning into the playoffs was seven points. Tampa Bay finished with 98 points, while Buffalo and Pittsburg were the last teams out at 91 points.

Flip four games out of 82, and suddenly, the Lightning are sitting at 90 points and out of the playoffs.

Boston is expected to take a step back, but Buffalo and Ottawa are starting to get within striking distance to start cracking the playoffs.

If Tampa takes even the slightest of steps backward in 2023-24, the playoffs won’t be as automatic as they have been over the last few seasons.

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