Tampa Bay Lightning: Five reasons for concern in 2023-24
Tampa Bay Lightning Reasons For Concern: Backup Goalie
As we referenced in our reasons for hope piece, the Lightning still has Andrei Vasilevskiy heading into the season. While his numbers weren’t up to his usual standard in 2022-23, he was still a top-10 goalie in the NHL last season.
But even the Big Cat needs a rest every now and again, and this is where things get dicey for Tampa.
The backup this season will either be Hugo Alnefelt or Jonas Johansson. Neither screams NHL-ready backup.
Alnefelt is 22 years old and had a .904 save percentage with Syracuse last season.
Johansson was acquired as a free agent on a two-way contract in the offseason. He has 35 career NHL starts with a .886 save percentage.
Ideally, Tampa would be able to keep Vasilevskiy to 55 starts and keep him fresh for the playoffs.
But if neither Alnefelt nor Johansson can elicit confidence, Vasilevskiy might be forced into action 65 times to keep Tampa competitive.
Tampa Bay Lightning Reasons For Concern: The Blue Line
After five straight seasons of being a Norris Trophy finalist for being the top defenseman in the NHL, Victor Hedman slipped down to 15th in the voting last season following his lowest goal total since 2012-13.
Now, obviously, there is more that goes into playing the blue line than scoring goals, but his plus/minus, while still +10, was his lowest for a full season since 2016-17. He had the most giveaways of his entire career in 2022-23. His on-ice corsi (shot attempts for vs. shot attempts against while on the ice) was the lowest he’s had since 2013-14.
This isn’t to say Victor Hedman is a bum. Far from it.
But his slow slip in play from elite to very good is a warning sign for the defensive group as a whole.
If healthy, Mikhail Sergachev and Erik Cernak will be fine, but finding three more quality defensemen is a concern.
Calvin de Haan, acquired in free agency, will be serviceable. Nick Perbix took strides last season but still can’t be left as a stand-alone defenseman.
Haydn Fleury was -10 last season. Darren Raddysh was -3. Zach Bogosian was -4.
If Hedman or Cernak get hurt, which is prone to happen, the group gets really thin real quick.
Tampa Bay Lightning Reasons For Concern: Conor Sheary
Acquired in free agency from Washington, Conor Sheary is a capable goal scorer.
When paired with Alex Ovechkin.
News flash: he won’t be paired with Alex Ovechkin in Tampa.
Last year, he scored 15 goals and had 22 assists. These are serviceable numbers but also fall in line with Alex Killorn’s numbers pre-2019.
With the anticipation that Sheary will be taking Killorn’s spot on the second line, he will need to double his goal-scoring to match what Killorn did the last couple of seasons.
And at 5’9″ and 179 pounds, Sheary is four inches shorter and 15 pounds lighter than Killorn.
If Sheary can’t find the back of the net at least 20 times, it is going to put even more pressure on Point, Stamkos, Kucherov, and Hagel to produce.
Tampa Bay Lightning Reasons For Concern: The division is catching up
Most Tampa Bay Lightning fans, and perhaps the players themselves, checked out the last couple months of the season because a playoff berth seemed well in hand.
The actual final margin that got the Lightning into the playoffs was seven points. Tampa Bay finished with 98 points, while Buffalo and Pittsburg were the last teams out at 91 points.
Flip four games out of 82, and suddenly, the Lightning are sitting at 90 points and out of the playoffs.
Boston is expected to take a step back, but Buffalo and Ottawa are starting to get within striking distance to start cracking the playoffs.
If Tampa takes even the slightest of steps backward in 2023-24, the playoffs won’t be as automatic as they have been over the last few seasons.
Next. Five reasons for hope in 2023-24. dark