OT struggles leave Tampa Bay Lightning treading water early in season

We are six games into the 2023-24 NHL, and the Tampa Bay Lightning have six points. It’s not a complete disaster, and there are still 76 games left to be played this season.

But the two overtime losses the Bolts suffered last week showcase how fickle our perceptions can be early in a season and what can dictate a “slow start” versus a team that is doing just fine.

Tampa Bay Lightning: At least we got a point

You hear it every time after a team loses in overtime: “Well, at least we got a point.” That was the case last Monday when Tampa forced overtime on a last-second Brandon Hagel goal. Even though Tampa went on to lose in the extra period, it was a point they weren’t going to have otherwise.

And in most seasons, whether or not Tampa gets the extra point for winning in overtime has been mostly irrelevant to their long-term goals. But there is reason to believe that, slow start or not, Tampa will need to pick up that extra point more times than not in 2023-24.

With most computer models pegging the Tampa Bay Lightning perilously close to the cut line for the playoffs, and some like Money Puck only giving Tampa a 30% chance of making the playoffs at all, those extra points may make or break Tampa’s season.

The Calgary Flames were 7-17 in games decided in overtime last season and went on to miss the playoffs by two points.

The Pittsburgh Penguins were 9-11 in games that went to overtime last season and missed the playoffs by one point.

Against Buffalo, Tampa lost the opening faceoff and never got to touch the puck.

Against Toronto, Tampa lost the opening faceoff, and it was a solid two minutes before they touched the puck. And once they did, it was a rush into the corner that was immediately gobbled up. Later, a Hagel turnover led to the Toronto goal.

Had Tampa won both these games in overtime, the Lightning would be sitting at 4-2-0, with eight points through six games, and would be on pace for 109 points this season.

Instead, they are 2-2-2 and are on pace for 82 points.

Since the start of the 2018 season, Tampa is 48-27 in games that have gone to overtime, so hopefully, this is a blip on the radar. 

But until Tampa starts racking up some wins, those extra points are going to come in handy if the Lightning want to ensure safety in 2023-24.