Tampa Bay Lightning Preview: Odds and key matchups vs Carolina

Coming off a disappointing loss to Toronto in overtime, where the Tampa Bay Lightning surrendered a two-goal lead in the third period, the Bolts are back at it tonight against the Carolina Hurricanes.

It’s a key two points up for grabs between two teams that have both been slow out of the gate to start the 2023-24 season.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Tropical Storm Warning

• When – 7:00PM
• Where – Amalie Arena
• TV – Bally Sports
• Radio – 102.5 The Bone

Outside of Boston and Detroit, a bunch of teams in the Eastern Conference are logged jammed right now at six points, including Tampa and Carolina. But most of the teams have a game in hand, while both the Lightning and the Hurricanes have already played six games.

As we keep saying, it is still early in the season, with plenty of hockey still to play., But whichever team loses this game, especially if it’s in regulation, will start to drift into a territory that will at least raise an eyebrow or two.

Tampa’s lineup, in theory, will be unchanged from Saturday, with Alex Barre-Boulet continuing to get top-line minutes. As we noted yesterday, the problem isn’t the Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov, Barre-Boulet line; it’s the paring making up Tampa’s second line right now with Steven Stamkos, Brandon Hagel, and Anthony Cirelli getting put on their heels by any basic or advanced metric on wants to go with.

Who to watch on Carolina

Sebastian Aho is the star for Carolina, but he missed their game on Saturday against Colorado. Early reports indicate he is 50/50 to play tonight.

With Aho out, Carolina’s makeshift top line was comprised of Jordan Martinook, Jordan Staal, and Jesper Fast. Stall has been in the league since 2006 and has four points on the season.

Leading Carolina’s scoring through six games is Seth Jarvis, with seven points in just his third season in the NHL. Jesperi Kotkaniemi, in his sixth year in the league, also has seven points.

The biggest problem for Carolina to this point has been its goaltending. They have trotted out Frederik Andersen, Antti Raanta, and Pyotr Kochetkov, but none have gotten the job done thus far. The Hurricanes have given up 30 goals on the season despite having an expected goal against of just 19.

Not only are the 30 goals allowed the most in the NHL so far, but the 11 goals given up above expected are by far the most in the NHL.

Vegas says…

Considering by Vegas standards, the Tampa Bay Lightning are 2-4 on the season, it shouldn’t be a shock that the Lightning is the underdogs in this game at +105 while Carolina is -125 favorites. The Hurricanes do have the fourth-lowest odds among all favorites tonight across the NHL.

Perhaps what is surprising is that the over/under was set at 6.5 and not seven goals. Tampa is 3-1-2 against the over/under this season, while Carolina has hit the over in all six of their games. With Carolina’s goaltending woes and Tampa having the second most expected goals against in the NHL, this feels like a game destined to hit at least seven goals.