The cost of staying in the Nikita Kucherov business seems to be going up every day for the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Bill Guerin and the Minnesota Wild continue to make life difficult for the Eastern Conference organization. Last summer, Kirill Kaprizov was inked to the richest contract in NHL history. Eight years and $136 million for a player who has scored more than 100 points once and only has a Calder Trophy on his mantle.
The Wild were at it again this afternoon, re-signing Michael McCarron to a reported six-year, $20 million contract. That's a $3.3 million AAV and significant trade protection for a 31-year-old forward who has notched double-digit goals and points just once. There are more ways to value a player than just points, obviously.
But these deals don't bode well for the Lightning as they wade into the Nikita Kucherov extension waters. Because Kucherov isn't just a PK specialist, and he scores at a higher rate than anyone else in the league. He's the offensive engine, and offensive engines get paid in this league.
Kirill Kaprizov and Michael McCarron create some gnarly comps for Nikita Kucherov's camp
Over the past three seasons, 23 players have registered more points than Kaprizov. Five players have a higher points-per-game average. Kucherov tops both of these categories, outpacing even Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon in both.
So the question becomes, if Kaprizov is worth almost 18 percent of the Wild's cap, what could Kucherov ask for? There's no indication that he'll ask for as much money as possible, but it's something that has weighed on the minds of Lightning fans since the ink dried on that Kaprizov mega-deal.
McCarron's extension is just another reminder of how out-of-hand contracts are about to become in the NHL's rising cap environment. The thing is, the longtime member of the Nashville Predators probably could have secured a bigger bag as a free agent. There were indications that offers for him could have exceeded $5 million a season.
If a solid penalty killer with physicality and little scoring touch is worth six years and $3.3 million AAV, certainly Kucherov could ask for the maximum cap hit of $20 million and be within reason. Odds seem good that the longtime Lightning forward and general manager, Julien BriseBois will be able to actually, you know, negotiate, but if the soon-to-be 33-year-old wants to cash in on presumably his last big contract, who could blame him?
What does a realistic deal for Kucherov look like as comps continue to evolve?
This is the multi-million dollar tightrope that BriseBois and the Lightning must walk when it comes to Kucherov. His level of play is so astoundingly high that even as he begins to decline due to age inevitably, he'll still be among the best players in the NHL. Kucherov needs to be better in the playoffs, but good teams don't let forwards like him go over a few rough playoff rounds. He's literally impossible to replace.
There's no reason to believe that Kucherov won't be as effective as, say, Sidney Crosby continues to be for the Pittsburgh Penguins, either. There are also injury concerns, but that exists for every player, not just Kucherov.
In this current economy, every penny BriseBois manages to keep Kucherov under $15 million a season should be seen as a hometown discount and a win for the organization. It wouldn't be shocking to see him push higher than that, since he's worth every cent right now, but that could also prevent the Lightning from building another Stanley Cup-caliber roster around this generational player.
Add us as a preferred source on Google