Taking a look at Team Canada and media projections
At the time of writing, we are just over 24 hours away from the roster announcements for the highly anticipated 4 Nations Face-Off. The rosters - which are set to be announced tomorrow, December 4th, at 6:30 PM EST - have stirred up a lot of buzz and conversation, especially in the past few days. There are many interesting storylines and pathways for different players to make rosters, but as a Tampa Bay fan, I want to zero in on Team Canada, which will be led by future Hall of Famer Jon Cooper. Each roster will consist of 13 forwards, seven defensemen, and three netminders. All four teams were able to assign six players to their rosters on June 28. Team Canada elected to announce five forwards - one being Brayden Point - and just one defenseman. Of course, this leaves only eight forward spots remaining, which has led different media members to lobby for certain players around the NHL.
On November 21st, Austen Bundy of FanSided projected Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nick Suzuki, and Connor Bedard to all be names on the final Team Canada roster. Then there’s Justin Bourne over at Sportsnet, who thinks Anthony Cirelli, Brandon Hagel, Mark Stone, and Travis Konecny should fill in some of those final roster spots. I would also argue that Dylan Strome should be considered, as he's up to 34 points on the season in just 24 games played. But before I get any deeper into the numbers, I had to ask myself: Is my bias as a Tampa Bay fan clouding my judgment, or are players like Cirelli and Hagel genuinely playing better hockey right now? So, I decided to take a look at the numbers in hopes of confirming that possible bias.
Brandon Hagel is a lock
Right off the bat, I realized that if you don't have Brandon Hagel in it, you're wrong. Hagel is scoring at a higher clip than all of the aforementioned names, excluding Strome, who boasts a staggering 1.4 points per game, and Stone (who has only played in 13 games), but is sitting at 1.6 points per game. Hagel’s mark of 1.2 points per game puts him firmly in the upper echelon of players in the league, and he's doing it on a team with multiple offensive stars. He is the Lightning's second leading scorer, and arguably their best player so far, on a team that includes Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, and Jake Guentzel. That kind of production on a stacked team like Tampa, should be more than enough to earn him a spot.
Beyond the stat sheet, there is a case to be made that Hagel plays a more intense, gritty, and passionate brand of hockey than anyone else in the NHL. Having a player like that on any sports team is crucial, regardless of skill level. Hagel just happens to possess the talent as well.
Facebook users chime in
Our Bolts By The Bay Facebook page posed the question of which players should make the final roster, and the responses were mixed. One fan claimed that "the tournament is just fluff," stating that the Bolts should opt to rest their players. Another fan expressed that Cooper’s influence wouldn’t matter, stating, “Cooper being HC means jack- as far as favoritism.” While it's entirely possible that Coop takes a neutral approach, I do think his familiarity with certain players - like Cirelli - could play a role in the final decision.
The argument for Anthony Cirelli
Speaking of Cirelli, the argument does get a little bit weaker for him, at least offensively. His numbers aren’t as eye-popping when compared to others. Travis Konecny is averaging 1.2 points per game, and Montreal's Nick Suzuki is averaging the same as Cirelli, with one point a game. Of course, points aren't the only stat, and offense isn’t the only thing that will earn a player a spot on the highly coveted roster. Cirelli is known for being a well-rounded player, specifically in the D-zone; his previous knock had been goal scoring, which he seems to have figured out.
While Cirelli’s offensive numbers are still really good, they don’t stand out as much as others - like Strome or Konecny - but his two-way play is a major asset. His consistency in the defensive zone and his ability to impact the game without the puck could make him a key piece for Team Canada. Of the players competing against Cirelli for one of those final spots (in my mind): Suzuki, Konecny, Strome, and Stone, he has the second-highest plus-minus at +11, behind only Strome’s +17. Though I'm not convinced he'll be on the final roster, there is certainly a case to be made.
Jon Cooper's possible influence
I wouldn’t want to be in Jon Cooper’s shoes, as there are clearly multiple players playing well enough to be assigned to the team. But as I previously stated, I do believe that playing for Coop could possibly help Cirelli slot into that final spot. And for Brandon Hagel, he seems like a surefire pick at this point in the season. Cooper’s familiarity with these players and their success under his coaching could be enough to sway his decision in their favor, as he knows their strengths better than anyone. Of course, all members of the coaching staff will have some influence, and with players like Mark Stone playing for Team Canada's assistant coach Bruce Cassidy, it could really come down to which players the coaches feel are the best fit collectively.
No matter which tough decisions Jon Cooper makes, the players who land a spot will have ultimately earned it through their play. The gap between the players I think have a shot at making the roster is relatively insignificant, and regardless of the final selections, Team Canada should be well-equipped to compete for the 4 Nations championship.