Tampa Bay Lightning Free Agents: Should they stay or should they go?
Now that the 2017-2018 season is over, the Tampa Bay Lightning have a few free agents that they will have to deal with in the coming offseason. Here’s who the Lightning should resign, and who they should let walk.
The Tampa Bay Lightning will have some contracts to sign this coming offseason. While this year won’t be as major as next year, with players like Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov, Yanni Gourde, Anton Stralman, and Ryan McDonagh all needing new deals, some decisions will still need to be made.
In total, the Lightning has eight players to deal with before the start of the 2018-2019 season. Those players include Cedric Paquette, Matthew Peca, Chris Kunitz, Andrej Sustr, Slater Koekkoek, Louis Domingue, and Adam Erne.
The majority of these players are restricted free agents, meaning that the Lightning will have exclusive negotiation rights with the player without interference from other teams.
If no deal is reached, other teams may extend an offer sheet to the player but the Lightning would receive compensation in the form of draft picks should they decide not to match the offer.
A few players, however, are unrestricted free agents meaning that they can talk to whatever teams they please.
This list won’t include depth AHL players like Jamie McBain, Mat Bodie, and Eddie Pasquale who are unlikely to make an impact on the Lightning’s roster next year.
Name: Cedric Paquette
Age: 24
Position: C/LW
Free Agent Status: Restricted
Cedric Paquette spent most of his season on the 4th line and recorded a meager nine points in 56 games. He did score high in one statistical category though, registering 41 penalty minutes. This earned him the distinction of being tied with Andrej Sustr for the lowest plus/minus rating on the Lightning’s roster with a disappointing -5.
In the playoffs, he managed to earn himself 37 penalty minutes which was far and away the most of any Lightning skater.
Paquette has never been a big point scorer and he never will be. His stats could make you believe that he is an enforcer type of player but that isn’t accurate either. According to HockeyFights.com, Paquette participated in just 1 fight in both the regular and postseason this year. That means that all but 5 of his penalty minutes in both categories came from other sources.
Verdict: Go. Paquette’s role on the 4th line is easily replaceable and can be filled by one of the many talented and promising prospects from the Syracuse Crunch like Mathieu Joseph, Gabriel Dumont, Matthew Peca (more on that later), or Alexander Volkov.
His high penalty minute totals and lack of offensive production are the deal breakers here, and what ultimately makes resigning him a bad idea. While he may find a deal with an NHL team next season, that team shouldn’t be the Lightning
Name: Matthew Peca
Age: 25
Position: C
Free Agent Status: Unrestricted
Matthew Peca played just 10 games with the Lightning this season and registered two goals and three assists in that time. He spent the majority of this season with the Syracuse Crunch of the AHL, where he tallied 13 goals and 33 assists for a total of 46 points.
Peca finished the season with a -1 plus/minus rating and has never had a positive rating in his AHL career. To put that in perspective, only five Lightning players finished the regular season with a negative rating this year. Of those five, one of them was battling an injury most of the season (Ryan Callahan) and one spent most of the season with another team (J.T. Miller).
At age 25, Peca still hasn’t been able to crack the Lightning’s line up full time. While this may be cause for concern, next year could finally be Peca’s year. He should be able to find a spot on the Lightning’s 4th line and will fill that spot with a fairly inexpensive contract.
The inexpensive part is the biggest benefit of resigning Peca, as regardless of the salary cap increase, the Lightning will be strapped for money in the upcoming season.
Verdict: Stay. 2018 may finally be Peca’s year to stick in the NHL. His contract should be fairly inexpensive, which will be extremely beneficial in the coming years for a Lightning team that will almost assuredly be cap strapped.
Name: Chris Kunitz
Age: 38
Position: LW
Free Agent Status: Unrestricted
The Lightning signed forward Chris Kunitz to a 1 year $3 million deal last offseason in an attempt to bring some experience to a relatively young Lightning roster. He appeared in all 82 games for the Bolts and recorded 13 goals and 16 assists for a total of 29 points. For a 38-year-old, that’s pretty impressive
In the playoffs, however, Kunitz recorded a lone assist in the 17 games the Lightning played. Part of the reason he was brought on this season was for his extensive playoff experience.
Based on his underwhelming production and the unenthused play of the Lightning that caused their elimination, it’s safe to say Kunitz’s experience and leadership didn’t get them quite as far as they would have hoped.
There have been rumors that per Kunitz’s agent, he wants to stay in Tampa for one more season and make one more run at the Cup. While the sentiment has to be appreciated, signing Kunitz to a new contract just doesn’t make sense for the Lightning.
Verdict: Go. Kunitz produced a valiant effort this season, but what was seen is likely the roof of his production at this point in his career. He’s a workhorse, but at his age (and by no fault of his own) he’s on the decline.
Like Paquette, Kunitz’s role is easily replaceable. Every team in the league wants to get younger and faster, and that’s the right move for the Lightning in this situation.
Name: Louis Domingue
Age: 26
Position: G
Free-agent status: Restricted
Louis Domingue came to the Lightning this season in a trade that sent Tye McGinn and fellow goaltender Michael Leighton to the Arizona Coyotes. Domingue became the Lightning’s backup when Peter Budaj went down with an injury and performed so well in his role that he kept it. In total, he played 19 games for the Lightning this season and posted a record of 7-9-1.
While a losing record may not look faltering, three of those games Domingue didn’t start, which means he was put in after Andrei Vasilevskiy was pulled. Relief appearances don’t exactly give Domingue the best odds of winning, so instead, let’s look at his other stats.
Of the 578 shots he faced, he allowed only 61 goals giving him a .894 save percentage and a goals-against average of 3.41. These aren’t starter quality numbers, but Domingue isn’t a starter. In fact, that’s exactly why the Lightning should keep him around.
Verdict: Stay. Domingue is the backup goaltender of the future for the Bolts. Since Budaj’s trade, it’s been all but confirmed that he’ll be getting a new contract from the Lightning soon. Regardless of the Budaj trade, this was the right move for the Lightning. Age is hardest on goalies, and at age 26 he has a natural advantage over Budaj.
Before coming to Tampa, Domingue was in a tough spot with his career and almost considered quitting hockey entirely. Prior to the trade, he was waived and had nowhere to play as the Coyotes already had three goalies in the AHL and the Coyotes had no intention of sending him there.
With all of that considered, it seems almost hard to believe now that things worked out the way they did. Giving him a chance was a good move for the Lightning though as Domingue and Vasilevskiy should be Tampa’s goalie tandem for years to come.
Name: Andrej Sustr
Age: 27
Position: D
Free Agent Status: Unrestricted
Oh, Andrej Sustr, what an abysmal year it’s been. In 44 games, Sustr produced just two goals and five assists for seven points on the season. In addition to this, he produced a whopping minus-5 plus/minus rating to tie with fellow free agent Cedric Paquette for worst on the team.
As his stat would reveal, he was on the ice a lot when the other team scored and he has become famous for his signature turnovers. He didn’t play a single game in the postseason this year, and now that the Bolts have Ryan McDonagh, Sustr is one of the three odd men out, with the other two being Jake Dotchin and Slater Koekkoek.
Honestly, there aren’t many positives to be said about Sustr’s season. The Bolts already have nine defensemen on the roster and Sustr drawing into the lineup prevents younger guys like Slater Koekkoek and Jake Dotchin from getting ice time. When that’s paired with a sub-par performance when he does play, Sustr becomes expendable.
Verdict: Go, bye, see ya. Andrej Sustr was part of the Lightning’s defensive problem this season, and compared to the other defensemen on the roster, he doesn’t bring anything to the lineup. His frequent turnovers make him a liability on defense, and Jake Dotchin and Slater Koekkoek bring more to the depth chart than Sustr does. This should be a no-brainer for the Lightning.
Name: Slater Koekkoek
Age: 25
Position: D
Free Agent Status: Restricted
Slater Koekkoek should have played a lot more games than he did this season. Appearing in just 35 games, he recorded four goals and four assists to go along with a plus-4 plus/minus rating. He commonly found himself as a healthy scratch, with Andrej Sustr drawing in over him.
It’s seemed like the Lightning coaching staff has almost prevented Koekkoek from getting on the ice. In the games he’s appeared in, he’s proven himself to be a solid addition to the Lightning’s blue line, but he hasn’t seen the ice enough to develop like he should.
This season, he averaged around 11 minutes of play time per game. If he played the majority of the season, that would still be a pretty small total, but he played less than half of the Bolts’ games and not a single playoff game. How can a young defenseman develop without seeing the ice?
Verdict: Stay. The Tampa Bay Lightning would be remiss to not re-sign Koekkoek, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s playing for another team next season.
The Lightning has treated Koekkoek pretty poorly, especially considering that it’s not uncommon for them to go with seven defensemen. If he’ll let them, Koekkoek should be re-signed, and in my opinion, should replace the aging Braydon Coburn in the Lightning’s lineup.
Name: Adam Erne
Age: 23
Position: LW
Free Agent Status: Unrestricted
Adam Erne finally made the jump from the Syracuse Crunch to the Bolts in the spring of this season and has stuck around since. In the 23 games he played with the Lightning, he recorded three goals and one assist for four total points. Had he not been injured, he would have made his playoff debut this season as well.
Like fellow Crunch forwards Cory Conacher and Anthony Cirelli, it seems that Erne has been called up by the big club for good. He’s a speedy forward that has shown that he isn’t afraid to get into the dirty areas of the ice to make a play. At 23, he’s just now entering his prime and has the potential to be a mainstay for the Lightning for years to come.
Need proof? Just check out this highlight reel play Erne made while falling against the New York Rangers. The feed came from none other than Anthony Cirelli. If it sounds like I’m hyping these guys up, it’s because I am. The Lightning has one of the best developmental programs in the league, and these two players are the most recent fruits of their efforts with many more on the way.
Verdict: Stay, and for a long time. The Lightning would be smart to lock Erne down for a few years now and avoid having another free agent to resign in the coming years. As he’s just broken into the league, Erne probably won’t be asking for the moon either.
Name: J.T. Miller
Age: 25
Position: C
Free Agent Status: Restricted
J.T. Miller came to the Lightning at the trade deadline as part of the deal that brought Ryan McDonagh to the Bolts and sent Vladislav Namestnikov to the New York Rangers. There are a lot of parallels between the two players, and Miller ended up replacing Namestnikov completely on the first line with Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov.
In his split season with the Rangers and the Lightning, Miller recorded 23 goals and 35 assists for a total of 58 points. He struggled in the playoffs though, producing only 2 goals and 6 assists. This was paired with a -4 plus/minus rating.
Miller is coming off of a two year, $5.5 million deal that he signed with the Rangers. This deal averaged him about $2.75 million a season. He’ll undoubtedly be looking for more than this with his next contract, which is where some problems start to come up.
Next season Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Ryan McDonagh, Yanni Gourde, and a few others will all need new deals. Point will be coming off his Entry-Level Contract, so the pay bump for him will be substantial. If the Lightning is going to lock Nikita Kucherov up long term, it’ll take a lot more than the $4.7 million they’re paying him now.
That’s a whole lot of money that is (deservedly) going to two players. and that’s before any of the other Lightning free agents are addressed. Taking this into account, it may be smarter to trade his rights or simply just let him walk and save some cap space.
Verdict: Go, but not because of anything Miller did. It was pretty understood when this trade went through that Miller would be a rental player for the Lightning and most likely wouldn’t still be with them next season.
Miller can and should be replaced with one of the numerous promising prospects from the Syracuse Crunch who are competing for ice time in the NHL. When it comes down to money, signing a 25-year-old free agent is a whole lot more expensive than an ELC.
Next: Tampa Bay Lightning release 2018-19 preseason schedule
In total, the Lightning should resign only half of their pending free agents. The common theme among the players that shouldn’t be offered new contracts is their replaceability. The Syracuse Crunch are deep with talented players that have great potential in the NHL and next season will be the perfect opportunity to prove themselves with the big club.