TB Lightning: Quantifying the impact of an earlier than expected salary cap increase

Tampa Bay Lightning general manger Julien BriseBois’ ears likely perked up when NHL commissioner Gary Bettman announced Tuesday that there is a possibility for the salary cap to increase as much as $4.5 million this offseason.

Before Tuesday, the consensus was for there to be a modest $1 million increase – from $82.5 million to $83.5 million – to the salary cap as NHL players are still paying owners back for revenues lost during the pandemic.

Assessing Tampa Bay’s 2023-24 cap situation

The Lightning’s salary cap situation next season is set to be just as precarious as always with ~$73.5 million already tied up in 14 contracts. They are looking at having to make tough decisions in order to sign at least six additional players with only $10 million cap space (assuming $83.5 million cap).

Current starters on the final years of their contracts this season include Alex Killorn, Corey Perry, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Ross Colton, Vladislav Namestnikov, Cal Foote, and Ian Cole. Those seven players’ current cap hits total $13.925 million this season. Factor in expected pay raises for Foote and Colton and the math just does not add up.

Laying out a scenario

For this exercise let’s make a few assumptions:

• Cole, Killorn, and Namestnikov’s next contracts – whether with us or someone else – will approximately be the same annual value of their current contracts ($9.95 million combined).
• Gabriel Fortier and Cole Koepke are signed to league minimum deals in-line with second contracts Mathieu Joseph, Mitchell Stephens, Alexander Volkov, Alex Barre-Boulet, Taylor Raddysh, and Boris Katchouk have signed with the team in recent years.

Re-signing the three big UFAs would immediately bring the team right up against the originally forecasted $83.5 million cap. Then, adding Fortier and Koepke to fill out the bottom of the lineup would put them over the cap with the team still short a forward and backup goaltender.

For a backup goalie, recent seasons have seen Tampa Bay sign a relatively cheap veteran backup to give the team a reliable option for when Andrei Vasilevskiy needs a rest. Assuming the same continues, or Hugo Alnefelt sees action, we will just call it an even million cap expenditure.

With an additional forward still needed for a 21-player roster, the team is already at an ~$86 million cap expenditure. That’s $2.5 million over the originally forecast salary cap, but within the realm of making something work if Bettman’s announcement comes to fruition.

It is too early to say who should, or should not, be prioritized at this point, but RFAs Ross Colton and Cal Foote still need contracts in this scenario.

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst

Could the team’s forward group survive without Colton, Killorn, or Namestnikov? Are two replacement level defensemen on the third-pairing manageable, or is a proven veteran like Cole needed?

Decisions will still need to be made, but an additional $3 million would allow GM BriseBois to not be forced into finding out the answer to one of the previous questions. However, we should still temper our expectations as a small salary cap increase still looks like the most probable outcome at this point.