Could Brayden Point Become a 60-Goal Scorer?

With his two-goal performance in the regular season finale, Brayden Point improved his season goal total to 51 and became the third player in Tampa Bay Lightning history to score 50 or more — joining Steven Stamkos and Vincent Lecavalier.

Prior to this season, Point’s single season career best was the 41 goals he scored in 2018-19, but injuries and shortened seasons since have prevented him from showing just how far he has progressed. Now 27 years old, and in the prime of his career, could Point go a step further and join the elite group of players who have crossed the 60-goal mark in a season?

While we are talking about an individual player statistic, no individual player is at their best without a good supporting cast around them. As for Point, the top names that play with him are all signed for next season and figure to be kept around thereafter.

On defense, Mikhail Sergachev took on a lot more responsibility this year and had the best season of his career, and Victor Hedman remains a high-end puck-moving option whenever Point is on the ice. As for forward linemates, Nikita Kucherov is not going anywhere, Brandon Hagel made himself an indispensable asset to the team and Steven Stamkos remains as steady as always.

Looking at the sustainability of Point’s scoring, this year he shot a career high 21.7%, just edging out the 21.5% he shot in 2018-19. With most of his career seasons falling between 15-18%, he appears to be at the upper limit of his ability.

For reference, among players that played at least half of the season, Point was second in shooting percentage only behind Vancouver’s Andrei Kuzmenko who shot 27.3%. Even the two newest members of the 60-goal club, Conor McDavid and David Pastrnak, only shot 18.2% and 15.0%, respectively, this season.

The main takeaway here is that Point, as we know, is already an elite scorer, but will likely need to generate more scoring chances to further raise his single season scoring numbers. However, that does not mean he cannot pull-off a higher scoring rate than what he has already shown.

To begin this season, Point had a relatively slow start — eight goals in the first 20 games, shooting only 14.0%. Over the remaining 62 games, and 53 goals, he had a 24.2% shooting percentage. With 62 games not being a small sample, over the course of the season, I do believe there is another gear for him to find here. Shooting at the 24.2% rate all season would have landed him around 56 total goals.

Additionally, Cooper mentioned an interesting statistic after the game saying that Point’s 51st goal, the empty netter to end the game, was his only empty net goal of the season.

Point will not bridge the nine-goal gap to 60 on empty netters alone, but if he manages an extra two or three in a season, that could be the difference in reaching 60 if he raises his numbers elsewhere.

So, can Point find another gear that sees him eclipse the 60-goal mark? It looks plausible, but it would require a titanic effort by player and team to make happen.