Bolts by the Bay Writers’ Predictions for First Round Toronto Series

TORONTO, CANADA - DECEMBER 20: Andrei Vasilevskiy #88 of the Tampa Bay Lightning covers the puck against the Toronto Maple Leafs during the third period of an NHL game at Scotiabank Arena on December 20, 2022 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. The Maple Leafs defeated the Lightning 4-1. (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images)
TORONTO, CANADA - DECEMBER 20: Andrei Vasilevskiy #88 of the Tampa Bay Lightning covers the puck against the Toronto Maple Leafs during the third period of an NHL game at Scotiabank Arena on December 20, 2022 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. The Maple Leafs defeated the Lightning 4-1. (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images)

For the second year in a row the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Toronto Maple Leafs meet in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Last year’s series went seven, with the Lightning prevailing on their way to their third consecutive Stanley Cup Final appearance.

As always, the Bolts by the Bay contributors have our own predictions on how the series will go. Two of our three writers, at the time, predicted last year’s series correctly, but how many of us will be right this time around? Feel free to take whatever receipts you need and share your own thoughts.

Henry:

For once, I actually have no idea what might happen in this series. One thing I do know is that it seems like destiny for it to go seven games again. For me, the Lightning have the better goaltender and that is enough for me. Until I see him lose, only a fool would pick against Andrei Vasilevskiy.

Prediction: Lightning in 7

Noah:

While the Lightning have better goaltending, the offensive and defensive numbers are better for Toronto and last season, Vasilevskiy looked beatable for a lot of that series against Toronto. I know it is a very unpopular idea to think of the Lightning losing but they have struggled since the beginning of February while the Leafs have been the opposite. I am hoping this prediction is wrong though, but this is the first time in five years that I haven’t put the Lightning in the finals, and that is mainly because this is the worst team they have had in five years.

Prediction: Leafs in 7

Garrett:

Vasy steps up his game from how he played the last month or so of the season and makes some huge saves for the Bolts to turn the tide in the series. I think Hagel will step up as the Nick Paul-like player from last year in the first round and deliver some massive goals to help propel them to the next round.

Prediction: Lightning in 7

Austin:

It will be a gnarly battle throughout but I will side with Andrei Vasilevskiy in the playoffs. Brayden Point is having a tremendous season and I see him being a major X factor.

Prediction: Lightning in 7

Stephen:

Among the three of us here last year, neither Henry, Noah, nor I predicted against the Lightning in last year’s Toronto’s series, but I am going to join Noah in predicting a Leafs win this time.

The Lightning had to win games six and seven last year to advance, and since then I would argue that the Leafs have gotten better and the Lighting worse — without Ryan McDonagh and Ondrej Palat. Not making matters any easier, Toronto made several potential series altering additions at the trade deadline including Jake McCabe, Luke Schenn, and Ryan O’Reilly. While conversely, the jury is still out on the impact Michael Eyssimont and Tanner Jeannot will have, and if the latter will even be healthy enough to make an impact in the series.

If any team has earned the benefit of the doubt over recent seasons it is the Lightning, but I just think the depth of the Leafs will be too much for them to handle this year.

Prediction: Leafs in 6