Five potential one year defenseman rentals for the Tampa Bay Lightning

We here at Bolts by the Bay chronicled yesterday five potential forwards the Tampa Bay Lightning could look at as a one-year rental option for the 2023-24 season. As we mentioned yesterday, Tampa could sign guys for longer but need to remember that Brandon Hagel will need a new deal in the 2024 offseason that pays way more than the $1,500,000 he’ll make this year.

But even though Tampa has seven defensemen under contract for next season, and eight if you count Phillip Meyers, it is still an unproven group once you get past Hedman, Sergachev, and Cernak.

Nick Perbix, for example, had on-ice Corsi numbers (total shot attempts for compared to total shot attempts against) of 51.6% but also had the benefit of starting in the offensive zone 55% of the time.

Likewise, Darren Raddysh saw action down the stretch and into the playoffs and had a Corsi percentage of 52% but also started in the offensive zone 64% of the time.

Finally, Hayden Fleury had a more difficult task starting in the offensive zone just 46% of the time, leading to a Corsi of 47%.

We can dive even deeper into the numbers, but there would have to be concern among Bolts Nation if Ian Cole isn’t brought back, and these are the seven members of the blue line for next season.

Similar to our list of potential forwards, Tampa is, at best, going to have around $3,000,000 to play with for a one-year rental, and that’s if Alex Killorn and Ross Colton are not brought back.

With that in mind, here are five unrestricted free agents Tampa might look at this offseason.

Tampa Bay Lightning Rentals: Ian Cole

• Tampa Bay Lightning
• Age – 34
• 2022-23 Cap Hit: $3,000,000
• 2022-23 Offensive Zone Start: 44%
• 2022-23 Corsi Numbers: 51%

The answer for a rental might be the player Tampa already has. This isn’t to say that Ian Cole is a perfect solution. Averaging one hit every 13 minutes, Cole was more physical than Sergachev and Hedman (which shouldn’t be a surprise), as well as Perbix.

But Cernak, Bogosian, Fleury, and Raddysh all had a better hits-per-minute ratio.

He also took 28 minor penalties, six more than the next closest player for Tampa (Sergachev), and was tied for sixth most in the NHL this past season.

With that said, his Corsi numbers were solid when you consider that he often times was starting in his own zone. His 200 shot attempts last season were the second-highest of his career, and the 97 shots that found their way on target were the highest of his career.

Cole was also credited with the most takeaways of his career, and he still averaged over a shot block per game.

But it’s understandable if Tampa fans are leery of giving Cole another go at age 34.

Tampa Bay Lightning Rentals: Travis Hamonic

• Ottawa Senators
• Age – 32
• 2022-23 Cap Hit: $3,000,000
• 2022-23 Offensive Zone Start: 47%
• 2022-23 Corsi Numbers: 50.5%

Travis Harmonic has a lot of metrics that are similar to Ian Cole. He was utilized more in defensive zone starts than offensive but still managed a positive Corsi number. On the surface, that may seem like a massive accomplishment playing for Ottawa, but the Senators as a team did have a 51% Corsi share during 5 v 5 play last season.

His hits per 60 minutes are in line with Cole, but he only took 13 minor penalties compared to Cole’s 28.

Harmonic has a little bit higher offensive upside, with 258 shot attempts and 127 shots on net last season.

His 58 scoring chances during 5 v 5 play were more than other notable defensemen such as Mark Giordano, Brandon Carlo, or Ryan Suter.

The real downside is that his 53 giveaways in 2022-23 were the 18th most among defensemen in the league, and of those that had more giveaways than him, only two had less ice time than him.

Given his metrics, his cap hit will probably be around $3,000,000. If Tampa still has that leftover after locking in their forwards and want something different than Cole, Harmonic isn’t a bad option.

Tampa Bay Lightning Rentals: Kevin Shattenkirk

• Anaheim Ducks
• Age – 34
• 2022-23 Cap Hit: $3,900,000
• 2022-23 Offensive Zone Start: 43%
• 2022-23 Corsi Numbers: 44%

What’s old could be new again if the Tampa Bay Lightning wants to reunite with Kevin Shattenkirk. Following his 2019-2020 pit stop with Tampa that helped the Bolts to the 2020 Stanley Cup, Shattenkirk signed a three-year deal with Anaheim for $3,900,000 a year.

HIs actual defensive numbers are suspect heading into free agency. He had fewer hits than Cole in 2022-23, but with 97 shots blocked during 5 v 5 play he was tied for 54th in the league with Sergachev.

Of the 55 defensemen that are unrestricted free agents this offseason, Shattenkirk was 11th in individual expected goals in 2022-23.

He is not the player he once was and anything above a one-year deal would be a massive gamble.

Tampa Bay Lightning Rentals: Scott Mayfield

• New York Islanders
• Age – 30
• 2022-23 Cap Hit: $1,450,000
• 2022-23 Offensive Zone Start: 41%
• 2022-23 Corsi Numbers: 49%

We’re going to ask the same question we asked in regards to whether or not the Tampa Bay Lightning should go after Jonathan Drouin.

Do you want to make a deal with the devil?

Scott Mayfield was the guy that shattered Kucherov’s ribs during the 2021 Eastern Conference Finals. Yet despite that incident, Mayfield isn’t as physical of a defenseman as one may think. He was only 70th among defensemen in hits during 5 v 5 play this past season.

Jack Johnson had more 5 v 5 hits.

However, his 118 shots during 5 v 5 play was tied for 32nd best among defensemen. His Corsi numbers were really good considering New York had him starting in his own zone a good chunk of the time.

He blocks a ton of shots and was tied for 15th in that category among defensemen.

His two big red flags are the 25 minor penalties he took, 5th most among defensemen, and his 59 giveaways were 11th most.

He’s coming off a five year deal that paid $1,450,000 per year.

He had 24 points last year, which is among the top 100 for defensemen and he was top 50 in points during 5 v 5 play.

Most of the guys around him in points are making at minimum $3,000,000.

It’s unlikely Tampa lands Mayfield as a one year rental, but he has enough drawbacks that his final number could land around $3,000,000. And if a three year deal for $3,000,000 was an option to land Mayfield, do the Lightning have enough tricks up their sleeve down the road to not have it come back and bite them?

They would have to make a deal with the devil to find out.