Paying players for breakout seasons is risky business, but that might be the industry the Tampa Bay Lightning will need to get into if they want to retain the services of Darren Raddysh. National columnists have named Raddysh the top pending free agent available, and after spending more than half a decade grinding away in the AHL, it's tough not to be happy for him as a person.
General manager Julien BriseBois has to do what is best for the organization on the whole, however, and has a difficult choice to make when it comes to the 30-year-old blueliner. Likewise, Raddysh will likely need to choose between securing the biggest deal possible or staying with the team that, in his own words, has given him everything that he's ever wanted to do in life.
Why it'd make sense for Darren Raddysh to go to market
We're projecting here, but if you are Darren Raddysh, after all the time spent in the minors, wouldn't you be at least a bit curious about what kinds of offers would be there on July 1? Whether it is pitched to him this way or not, he is a prime candidate to get overpaid this summer. And odds are good that this will be his last chance to cash in as arguably the top free agent in the class.
Hard-shooting, right-hand defenseman coming off of 70-point seasons will get paid, no matter what their track record suggests. There are a myriad of new general managers around the NHL who would likely love to make Raddysh their marquee summer move. Squint hard enough, and you can almost see him standing next to John Chayka with a blue No. 43 Toronto Maple Leafs sweater in hand and a new seven-year, $70 million contract in his bank account.
Maybe Chayka taps into his... uh, business savvy and realizes that a $10 million cap hit for Raddysh is an overpay, but would anyone be surprised to see the blueliner land a cap hit between $9 million and $10 million on the open market? Before you dismiss this, consider that we're operating in a new cap reality, and the Columbus Blue Jackets gave Ivan Provorov $59.5 million across seven years ($8.5 million AAV) last July.
One general manager somewhere will offer Raddysh the financial security he never would have dreamed possible a year ago. He's uniquely positioned as the best player in a bad free agent class in a rising cap environment where almost every team in the NHL is trying to compete. The iron will literally never be this hot for him again.
But Tampa Bay is Home for Darren Raddysh
Home is where the heart is, and $10 million a year can change hearts pretty quickly. But Raddysh's run with the Lightning is about as unique as his situation. If a fringe contender offers him something in that $9-10 million range, and the Lightning are willing to push into the mid-$6 million range, would that be enough to get it done?
BriseBois won't be the one to blink in this situation. He'll have a solid number in his head that he is willing to go to, and if Raddysh's agents push too far beyond those bounds, he'll start searching for a Plan B. The reality is that if the defenseman wants to continue to call Tampa home, he'll need to take less money than he would get on the open market.
That is generally the way that Stanley Cup-caliber teams operate, however. Having the highest-paid players doesn't lead to results. Just ask the Minnesota Wild. If anything, having a handful of skaters who want to make their exact market value is what pushes teams toward the mushy middle, if not lower. The Lightning have a pretty long history of keeping individuals at less than 10 percent of the total cap, and it's tough to imagine BriseBois straying away from that ideal for Darren Raddysh.
Losing the guy who stepped in for Victor Hedman while he was in and out of the lineup would be more or less impossible. There's no one like Raddysh on the open market, and the Lightning aren't really in a spot where they can trade futures for another team's disgruntled player. The cupboard is empty after years of going for it.
Which brings us to our conclusion. The Lightning aren't getting any younger, and losing a top-pairing caliber defenseman who can break the puck out of the zone like few of his peers would set them back noticeably. The Atlantic Division is young and on the rise. Unless the plan is to take a step back in 2026-26--and there's no reason to believe that is what Tampa is considering--then perhaps giving Raddysh more money on a shorter term would be a good compromise.
Would $46 million over six years close this bit of business for BriseBois? It's tough to say for certain, but a deal in that range is probably the most palatable outcome for the Lightning when it comes to these negotiations. Anything under that would probably be seen as a win for the team. Anything over that will likely be viewed as a win for the player. And make no mistake: there will be more lucrative options out there for Raddysh.
But it won't be home, either.
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