It’s Now or Never: Nick Paul Edition

Last season the Tampa Bay Lightning was as top-heavy as a mallet dipped in goo.

As we said the other day, if the men in bolt blue are going to return to the depths of the Stanley Cup playoffs, they will need significant contributions from one or more middle-six skaters. Here, we mean contributions beyond what has occurred before.

Brandon Hagel: You know he’s going to be solid. Anthony Cirelli: You know he’s going to be scrappy.

For my money, the three players currently on the roster with the greatest as-yet unrealized upside: Mikey Eyssimont, Conor Geekie, and Nick Paul.

It's time for Nick Paul to step up for the Tampa Bay Lightning

To clarify, this means I believe these players have higher ceilings than we’ve seen them reach so far. This doesn’t mean I project them to stick their noggins through a layer of drywall.

To date, Eyssimont doesn’t get enough ice time (and, mysteriously, he didn’t play much in the third period of Saturday’s 5-4 loss at Ottawa; no one in the media seems to have asked the coach about this). Geekie is a rookie. So today, let’s look at the latter player.

The aforementioned Nick Paul. He of the Mississauga, Ontario Pauls. A strapping lad at 6-foot-3, or thereabouts (you can never trust the official tale of the tape), and 229 pounds, give or take. Dark hair. Left-handed shot. Originally drafted by Dallas, later had a term in Ottawa. Arrived in Tampa Bay by way of a trade in the spring of 2022. Commonly found at center, recently displaced to the wing. One more thing: He’s an underachiever.

Wait: what? What?! Underachiever? Is that fair, Mr. Pajama Blogger Guy? Maybe. Maybe not.

To the extent the charge has validity, it comes from a place of belief in the player. Paul has things going for him. He can play a physical corner game and he can stick-handle, too. You don’t find that combination often. The average NHL player is three inches shorter and 30-plus pounds lighter than Paul. Most players of Paul’s bodily stature don’t have hands, as we say, and they can’t skate. Paul can move and Paul can dangle. (I don’t know if he can sing or dance.)

This isn’t just my opinion. Tampa Bay coach Jon Cooper looked at Paul going into the 2023-2024 season and saw a fellow suited to play on the team’s top power play unit — a unit, we might add, with more than a little skill. How did that work out? Not so much. Paul scored some power-play goals but this didn’t prove a lot.

The Amalie Arena janitor could sweep up a couple of goals if perpetually placed on the ice with Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, and Steven Stamkos against short-handed opponents. Paul just never came up with a plan when the puck was sent his way. (That is, if he was anywhere other than in front of the net after a rebound with the goalie sprawled, legs akimbo.) Kucherov fed him in space and Paul sort of tentatively pivoted in a way that suggested he didn’t know whether to pass the puck, shoot the puck, or do a pirouette for the crowd.

Even 5-on-5 last season Paul’s intensity waxed and waned, and at one point Cooper moved him down to the third line.

Although this season Paul does come on the ice for power-play face-offs (more on those in a moment) he is mostly playing wing on the second line (with Hagel and Cirelli). Through four games, he’s been reliable and he’s produced (1 goal, 3 assists). Can this sort of pace continue? In other words, it’s fair to ask: Is it now or never, Nick Paul?

Which is to say that if it’s ever going to happen that Paul changes the calculus for the Lightning, making the team a little less dependent upon its top line, this should be the season. He’s a prime 29 years old. He appears to be trending in the right direction.

Last season was clearly Paul’s best in the NHL and he was far better in the second half of the season than he was in the first. He scored 24 goals and had 22 assists. The year before, he went 17 and 15. A similar incremental boost would be huge. But then let’s dare to dream: Could Nick Paul be a 60-point player? A 65-point player? Could he, um, over-achieve?

More than anything, this season, he cuts a tighter figure in his sweater, and his body language on the ice is such that he seems more comfortable in his own skin. He knows he’s not a No. 1 center and, hey, not many guys can be a No. 1 center. He seems to be a mentor of sorts for Geekie and, personally, I would like to see those two players on the same line. (Put Eyssimont with Hagel and Cirelli and call them The Rats.)

An aside, Part I: Now that I am making up lines — you’re welcome, coach Cooper — I would also like to see Mitchell Chaffee take a turn on the third. Geekie, Chaffee, and Paul. Sounds like a law firm and I think they would do some serious litigation in the corners.

An aside, Part II: The irony of Paul taking face-offs on the power play is that his overall face-off rate so far this season (50 percent) is less than the man he replaces (Jake Guentzel at 55 percent).

Whatever else we can say for certain about Nick Paul, it’s this: the Tampa Bay Lightning could use more of what they are getting from him in the season’s early goings. Continuing with the season's fifth game in Toronto, sight of Paul's best game as a professional. The Lightning play the second of three straight road games against the Maple Leafs on Monday night.

Incidentally, Nick Paul will make $3.25 million this season. This puts him in the NHL’s lower-middle class. Maybe talk of 60-plus-point seasons is unfair. Maybe I’m putting too much pressure on Paul (I presume he’s a regular BBTB reader).

We shall see whether the time for Paul to realize such potential is now or whether it's (probably) never.